4096 Thunderbird Ave · Spring Hill, FL 34606

$275,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,287 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 103 Days on market

Built 2019 7,083 sqft lot Est $255k · 8% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.3/30.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• ARV discount +3.9/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Brand new builder owned 3/2 split planned spec home with estimated completion date of Sept 2019. CBS construction with full builder warranties. Terrific plan featuring large great room, 2 car garage and much, much more.

Key facts

• Close to us 19
• Spacious kitchen
• No cdd fees

Tags

• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• TWO STORAGE AREAS
• LARGE PARKING AREA
• NO HOA
• NO CDD FEES
• CLOSE TO US 19

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Homestead exempt; No lease restrictions
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (2 spaces)
• Utilities: Public water; Septic sewer; Cable available; Electricity available; Water connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Facing west; Residential property
• Construction: Block construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built on 0.16-acre lot
• Exterior features: Lighting; Private mailbox; Rain gutters; Sliding doors; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Living room and dining room combo
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1 ($12/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $204k (25.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $204k (25.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.4% in Spring Hill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#738 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Hernando (suburban): math 50% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #38 of 73 in FL (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Deltona Elementary School (math 45% / reading 50%, grade D, #1,182 of 2,144 statewide, top 55%, 843 students, 72% FRL); Central High School (math 34% / reading 44%, grade F, #312 of 667 statewide, top 48%, 1,426 students, 53% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 386 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,505 units permitted in Hernando County in 2024 (318 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hernando County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 103 days — a 9% lower offer ($250k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $24k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $165k; list at $275k implies a 67% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $204,487 (25.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 103 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.02%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $254,826
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7452 Wabash Trl	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,267 (-2%)	1mo	$260,000	$205	86
4077 Ramona Dr	0.17mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,275 (-1%)	3mo	$247,000	$194	83
4086 Arrowhead Ave	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,152 (-10%)	0mo	$220,000	$191	78
7464 Cherokee Trl	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,249 (-3%)	6mo	$251,500	$201	73
8040 Cessna Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,304 (+1%)	1mo	$194,900	$149	69
4076 Monona Ave	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,408 (+9%)	1mo	$304,990	$217	68
3394 Memory Ln	0.40mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,215 (-6%)	0mo	$215,000	$177	67
8002 Navajo Trl	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,354 (+5%)	8mo	$270,000	$199	67
7210 Apache Trl	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,413 (+10%)	6mo	$280,000	$198	63
7376 Philatelic Dr	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,350 (+5%)	1mo	$250,000	$185	56
3250 Painters St	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,382 (+7%)	0mo	$250,000	$181	55
8082 Pagoda Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,368 (+6%)	3mo	$305,000	$223	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-50,636
• Equity at exit: $41,003

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-67,759
• Equity at exit: $23,777

Cash invested: $77,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34606

• Home prices YoY: -24.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 386
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,045 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$58 /mo · $693/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$429
• Net cashflow: $1

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,044

Max offer price $275,000

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,750
• Closing costs: $8,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7423 Mohawk Trl Spring Hill, FL	3.0	2.0	1114	$1,795	$1.61	17d	1	0.22mi
7410 Cherokee Trl Spring Hill, FL	3.0	2.0	1196	$1,725	$1.44	12d	1	0.24mi
7272 Apache Trl Spring Hill, FL	3.0	2.0	1408	$2,650	$1.88	24d	1	0.29mi
7423 Apache Trl Spring Hill, FL	3.0	2.0	1711	$2,200	$1.29	24d	1	0.31mi
4108 Monona Ave Spring Hill, FL	3.0	2.0	1508	$1,900	$1.26	24d	1	0.32mi
7483 Apache Trl Spring Hill, FL	3.0	2.0	1587	$1,795	$1.13	5d	1	0.41mi
4300 Bridgewater Club Loop Spring Hill, FL	2.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1214	$1,396	$1.15	1d	13	0.50mi
4398 Plumosa St Spring Hill, FL	3.0	2.0	1646	$1,985	$1.21	24d	1	0.62mi
7369 Sealawn Dr Spring Hill, FL	2.0	2.0	1154	$2,500	$2.17	3d	1	0.76mi
8316 Nevada St Spring Hill, FL	2.0	1.0	1722	$2,100	$1.22	24d	1	0.99mi
8397 Coral St Spring Hill, FL	3.0	2.0	1202	$1,689	$1.41	2d	1	1.11mi
3191 Deltona Blvd Spring Hill, FL	3.0	2.0	1366	$1,815	$1.33	24d	1	1.15mi
8513 Beach Rd Spring Hill, FL	3.0	2.0	1378	$1,990	$1.44	17d	1	1.28mi
4628 Bayridge Ct Spring Hill, FL	3.0	2.0	1756	$1,995	$1.14	4d	1	1.32mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $275,000 Active 103 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $275,000 Active 102 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $275,000 Active 101 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $275,000 Active 100 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $275,000 Active 98 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $275,000 Active 97 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $279,000 Active 96 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $279,000 Active 93 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $279,000 Active 92 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $279,000 Active 91 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $279,000 Active 90 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $279,000 Active 89 DOM
13. 2026-04-24
    price $279,000
14. 2026-03-24
    price $289,000
15. 2026-03-03
    listed $298,900 Active
16. 2019-12-27
    soldstatus $164,700 219-char remark

    Show marketing remark (219 chars)

    Brand new builder owned 3/2 split planned spec home with estimated completion date of Sept 2019. CBS construction with full builder warranties. Terrific plan featuring large great room, 2 car garage and much, much more.

17. 2019-12-27
    soldstatus $164,700 219-char remark

    Show marketing remark (219 chars)

    Brand new builder owned 3/2 split planned spec home with estimated completion date of Sept 2019. CBS construction with full builder warranties. Terrific plan featuring large great room, 2 car garage and much, much more.

18. 2019-05-01
    listed $172,700 219-char remark

    Show marketing remark (219 chars)

    Brand new builder owned 3/2 split planned spec home with estimated completion date of Sept 2019. CBS construction with full builder warranties. Terrific plan featuring large great room, 2 car garage and much, much more.

19. 2019-05-01
    listed $172,700 219-char remark

    Show marketing remark (219 chars)

    Brand new builder owned 3/2 split planned spec home with estimated completion date of Sept 2019. CBS construction with full builder warranties. Terrific plan featuring large great room, 2 car garage and much, much more.

20. 2018-11-16
    soldstatus $40,000
21. 2018-10-23
    soldstatus $24,000
22. 2004-04-30
    soldstatus $8,200

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $693 · $58/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,282 · $190/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,590/yr (+$132/mo · 229.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,538
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,404
• − Property taxes: −$693
• − Insurance: −$1,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,963
• − Management: −$1,963
• − Depreciation: −$8,000
• Taxable loss: −$4,860
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,166
• After-tax cash flow: $1,178/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hernando
• NCES district ID: 1200810
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $41,985
• Composite: 42.03/100
• National rank: #3329
• State rank: #38 of 73 in FL

Livability — Spring Hill

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #738
• US rank: #15937

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Spring Hill, FL
• County: Hernando County · 169,677 people
• City population: 83,915
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 28,668
• Household income: $57,337
• Rent vs Own: 23.2% rent · 76.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 733.0

Population outlook (Hernando County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 189,218 people
• By 2030: 194,367 · +2.7%
• By 2040: 203,398 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 209,589 · +10.8%
• By 2075: 218,452 · +15.4%
• By 2100: 205,923 · +8.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 13% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 11% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hernando

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.0) · D 31.1% · R 68.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -33.5pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -37.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.0 2020: R+30.2 2016: R+29.0 2012: R+8.5 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -98.11%
• Current HPI: 298.5201
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.89%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+3302.4% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $279,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $289,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-03 Listed $298,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-12-27 Sold (MLS) $164,700 St. Augustine and St. Johns County Board of REALTORS®
• 2019-12-27 Sold (MLS) $164,700 HCAR
• 2019-05-01 Listed $172,700 St. Augustine and St. Johns County Board of REALTORS®
• 2019-05-01 Listed $172,700 HCAR
• 2018-11-16 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records
• 2018-10-23 Sold (Public Records) $24,000 Public Records
• 2004-04-30 Sold (Public Records) $8,200 Public Records

Property tax history

+10.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $693 · +1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.