3835 Gardiner Ferry Rd #2 · Vina, CA 96021

$102,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,144 sqft · Manufactured public records · 102 Days on market

Built 1980 Est $112k · 9% under ↓ 18% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +11.6/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Woodson Bridge Estates Space #2. Ideally tucked away in the inner section of the park. This 2 bedroom, 2 bathroom features a large laundry room with a built in workspace. Fenced back yard with a lovely garden, greenhouse and large shed provide the ideal balance of indoor outdoor living space. Enjoy park amenities such as a Clubhouse, swimming pool and jacuzzi. Woodson Bridge Estates is located approx. 10 minutes from downtown Corning and approx. 25 minutes to Chico or Red Bluff. Also conveniently located near the Sacramento River offering boating, fishing or picnicking. Schedule your private showing today!

Key facts

• Fenced back yard
• Built in workspace
• Swimming pool

Tags

• LARGE LAUNDRY ROOM
• BUILT IN WORKSPACE
• FENCED BACK YARD
• GREENHOUSE
• LARGE SHED
• SWIMMING POOL

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Land lease of $719 per month (seller provided); Land lease includes trash, water, and sewer
• HOA & community: Senior community; Rural setting; Park-managed community (manager approval required)

Exterior

• Parking: Located in Woodson Bridge Estates park
• Utilities: Shared well water; Community septic
• Home design: Single-story property; Mobile home (22 ft by 48 ft) — mobile home remains; Assessor listed year built
• Construction: Mobile construction
• Exterior features: Yard; No pool

Interior

• Bedrooms: All bedrooms on ground floor
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (furnace); Central cooling
• Interior features: One-level home; Side entry
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in a dedicated room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $102k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $409 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $102k).
• Recommended offer: $93k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 44/100 on livability (#1,345 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Corning Union High (rural): math 12% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #1,151 of 1,400 in CA (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 175 active listings in the ZIP; 186 units permitted in Tehama County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $705 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tehama County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 102 days — a 9% lower offer ($93k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $92,820 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 102 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.33% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.20%
• DSCR: 1.77
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $112,112
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3835 GARDINER Fry #95	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,152 (+1%)	19mo	$115,000	$100	83
3835 GARDINER Fry #35	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,056 (-8%)	12mo	$104,000	$98	77
3835 Gardiner Ferry Rd #89	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,248 (+9%)	23mo	$95,000	$76	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.33×
• Total profit: $9,535
• Equity at exit: $15,209

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.47×
• Total profit: $41,841
• Equity at exit: $8,819

Cash invested: $28,560 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96021

• Home prices YoY: -34.8%
• Active inventory: 175
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,352 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$535
• Tax from tax record: −$81 /mo · $977/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$284
• Net cashflow: $409

Break-even live

Break-even rent $834

Max offer price $102,000

Occupancy floor 65%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $467	-5% $438	+0% $409	+5% $380	+10% $352
Rent	-10% $303	-5% $356	+0% $409	+5% $463	+10% $516
Rate	-1.0pp $461	-0.5pp $435	base $409	+0.5pp $383	+1.0pp $356

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,500
• Closing costs: $3,060
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 39 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $102,000 Active 102 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $102,000 Active 101 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $102,000 Active 100 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $102,000 Active 99 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $102,000 Active 98 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $102,000 Active 96 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $102,000 Active 95 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $102,000 Active 93 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $102,000 Active 92 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $102,000 Active 91 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $102,000 Active 90 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $102,000 Active 87 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $102,000 Active 86 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $102,000 Active 85 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $102,000 Active 84 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $102,000 Active 83 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $102,000 Active 82 DOM
18. 2026-04-21
    price $104,000
19. 2026-03-09
    listed $105,000 Active
20. 2025-12-04
    historical
21. 2025-10-29
    price $99,500
22. 2025-10-16
    price $106,500
23. 2025-09-19
    price $107,500
24. 2025-09-04
    listed $109,500 Active
25. 2025-08-31
    historical
26. 2025-07-23
    price $102,000
27. 2025-06-09
    price $104,000
28. 2025-04-23
    price $106,000
29. 2025-03-18
    price $110,000
30. 2025-02-26
    listed $115,000 Active
31. 2024-05-10
    soldstatus $99,900 Closed Sale
32. 2024-05-10
    soldstatus $99,900 Closed
33. 2024-04-12
    status Pending Sale
34. 2024-04-12
    status Pending
35. 2024-04-02
    price $99,900
36. 2024-03-26
    price $99,900
37. 2024-02-26
    price $119,900
38. 2023-11-16
    listed $127,000 Active
39. 2023-11-16
    listed $127,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $977 · $81/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $977 · $81/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 21% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 35 unhealthy d/yr today · 38 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,225
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,714
• − Property taxes: −$977
• − Insurance: −$510
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,298
• − Management: −$1,298
• − Depreciation: −$2,967
• Taxable income: $3,461
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$831
• After-tax cash flow: $4,081/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Corning Union High
• NCES district ID: 0609810
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $39,060
• Composite: 25.18/100
• National rank: #12925
• State rank: #1151 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Vina

• Score: 44/100
• State rank: #1345
• US rank: #26820

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 15,076

Population outlook (Tehama County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 61,058 people
• By 2030: 59,493 · -2.6%
• By 2040: 56,076 · -8.2%
• By 2050: 52,372 · -14.2%
• By 2075: 43,895 · -28.1%
• By 2100: 34,186 · -44.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 51% White 44% Two or more races 20% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 46%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada
• Languages at home: 59% English-only · Spanish 40%

Political lean MEDSL · Tehama

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+41.8) · D 27.9% · R 69.7% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.7pp toward R · 2008: -24.1pp · 2024: -41.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+41.8 2020: R+35.6 2016: R+36.8 2012: R+27.4 2008: R+24.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -145.81%
• Current HPI: 272.9407
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-18.1% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $104,000 CRMLS
• 2026-03-09 Listed $105,000 CRMLS
• 2025-12-04 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-10-29 Price Changed $99,500 CRMLS
• 2025-10-16 Price Changed $106,500 CRMLS
• 2025-09-19 Price Changed $107,500 CRMLS
• 2025-09-04 Listed $109,500 CRMLS
• 2025-08-31 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-07-23 Price Changed $102,000 CRMLS
• 2025-06-09 Price Changed $104,000 CRMLS
• 2025-04-23 Price Changed $106,000 CRMLS
• 2025-03-18 Price Changed $110,000 CRMLS
• 2025-02-26 Listed $115,000 CRMLS
• 2024-05-10 Sold (MLS) $99,900 TCAOR
• 2024-05-10 Sold (MLS) $99,900 CRMLS
• 2024-04-12 Pending — CRMLS
• 2024-04-12 Pending — TCAOR
• 2024-04-02 Price Changed $99,900 TCAOR
• 2024-03-26 Price Changed $99,900 CRMLS
• 2024-02-26 Price Changed $119,900 CRMLS
• 2023-11-16 Listed $127,000 TCAOR
• 2023-11-16 Listed $127,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

+20.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $977 · +645.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.