1512 Chevy Chase Dr · Sun City Center, FL 33573

$229,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,266 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 91 Days on market

Built 1963 2,640 sqft lot $148/mo HOA · 8% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Appreciation +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. Welcome to this charming, tastefully updated 2-bedroom, 2-bath, 1-car garage home in the heart of Sun City Center, Florida’s premier 55+ community. This light and bright home features neutral tones throughout, NO carpet, and easy-care flooring. The kitchen offers granite countertops with an eat-in space, while the Florida room provides additional living area perfect for relaxing or entertaining. The primary suite includes a walk-in shower, and the guest bath features a tub/shower combination. Both bathrooms include accessibility bars for added comfort and convenience. Inside laundry with stylish barn door. Major system updates include Roof (2021

Key facts

• Florida room
• Walk-in shower
• Granite countertops

Tags

• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• FLORIDA ROOM
• WALK-IN SHOWER
• INSIDE LAUNDRY
• GOLF-CART-FRIENDLY STREETS
• INDOOR AND OUTDOOR POOLS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-67 ($-803/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $218k (5.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $186k (19.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $186k (19.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#178 in FL, #2,736 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Cypress Creek Elementary School (math 40% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,491 of 2,144 statewide, top 70%, 957 students, 63% FRL); Shields Middle School (math 29% / reading 27%, grade F, #486 of 571 statewide, top 86%, 1,867 students, 68% FRL); Lennard High School (math 30% / reading 46%, grade F, #328 of 667 statewide, top 50%, 2,404 students, 47% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 35% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Hillsborough average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 605 active listings in the ZIP; 37 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($73k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($209k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $230k implies a 186% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $186,186 (19.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.25%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.65% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-42,175
• Equity at exit: $34,279

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-44,892
• Equity at exit: $19,878

Cash invested: $64,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33573

• Home prices YoY: -1.2%
• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 605
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,862 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$88 /mo · $1,061/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$148
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$391
• Net cashflow: $-67

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,947

Max offer price $218,072

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $63	-5% $-2	+0% $-67	+5% $-132	+10% $-197
Rent	-10% $-214	-5% $-141	+0% $-67	+5% $7	+10% $80
Rate	-1.0pp $49	-0.5pp $-8	base $-67	+0.5pp $-127	+1.0pp $-187

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,475
• Closing costs: $6,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 37 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1528 Chevy Chase Dr Sun City Center, FL	2.0	2.0	1346	$2,000	$1.49	26d	1	0.10mi
1703 Amhurst Cir Sun City Center, FL	2.0	2.0	1550	$1,995	$1.29	7d	1	0.31mi
1301 Warwick Ct Unit 1301 Sun City Center, FL	1.0	1.0	1102	$1,575	$1.43	26d	1	0.35mi
1201 Fordham Dr Sun City Center, FL	2.0	2.0	1582	$1,950	$1.23	20d	1	0.42mi
1005 Rickenbacker Dr Sun City Center, FL	2.0	1.0	1224	$1,595	$1.30	4d	1	0.42mi
207 Islip Way Sun City Center, FL	2.0	1.5	992	$1,500	$1.51	20d	1	0.47mi
1104 Desert Hills Dr Sun City Center, FL	2.0	2.0	1383	$1,825	$1.32	19d	1	0.50mi
1802 Bedford Ter #182 Sun City Center, FL	1.0	1.5	960	$1,375	$1.43	24d	1	0.55mi
717 Indian Wells Ave Sun City Center, FL	2.0	2.0	1264	$1,595	$1.26	26d	1	0.56mi
714 Indian Wells Ave Sun City Center, FL	2.0	2.0	1515	$1,695	$1.12	26d	1	0.58mi
1802 Bedford Ln Sun City Center, FL	1.0–2.0	2.0	952	$1,800	$1.89	13d	2	0.58mi
701 Cypress Pl Sun City Center, FL	2.0	2.0	1425	$1,700	$1.19	26d	1	0.63mi
201 Bedford Trl Unit F128 Sun City Center, FL	2.0	2.0	960	$1,275	$1.33	26d	1	0.64mi
810 Oakmont Ave Sun City Center, FL	2.0	2.0	1266	$2,100	$1.66	26d	1	0.64mi
101 Cambridge Trl Sun City Center, FL	1.0–2.0	1.5–2.0	880	$1,650	$1.88	13d	1	0.71mi
306 Fowling Ct Sun City Center, FL	2.0	2.0	960	$1,700	$1.77	26d	1	0.72mi
704 Torrey Pines Ave Sun City Center, FL	2.0	1.0	981	$1,675	$1.71	26d	1	0.75mi
704 Torrey Pines Ave Sun City Center, FL	2.0	1.0	981	$1,700	$1.73	16d	1	0.75mi
403 Finchley Ct Unit B Sun City Center, FL	2.0	2.0	960	$2,000	$2.08	26d	1	0.77mi
2202 Clubhouse Dr #169 Sun City Center, FL	2.0	2.0	984	$1,450	$1.47	7d	1	0.78mi
409 Feltham Trl Unit B Sun City Center, FL	2.0	2.0	984	$1,650	$1.68	26d	1	0.80mi
301 Kings Blvd #138 Sun City Center, FL	1.0	1.5	1020	$1,800	$1.76	24d	1	0.82mi
102 Wintersong Ln Sun City Center, FL	2.0	2.0	1508	$1,995	$1.32	22d	1	0.84mi
1814 Columbine Pl Sun City Center, FL	2.0	2.0	1516	$2,100	$1.39	26d	1	0.93mi
1906 Canterbury Ln #26 Sun City Center, FL	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,750	$1.46	1d	1	0.98mi
1904 N Pebble Beach Blvd Sun City Center, FL	3.0	2.0	1756	$1,600	$0.91	15d	1	1.00mi
110 Gloucester Blvd Sun City Center, FL	2.0	2.0	1136	$1,950	$1.72	26d	1	1.02mi
110 Gloucester Blvd Sun City Center, FL	2.0	2.0	1136	$1,950	$1.72	0d	1	1.02mi
3794 Maxwell Park Dr Sun City Center, FL	2.0	2.0	1506	$2,600	$1.73	6d	1	1.04mi
2345 Glenmore Cir Unit 294 Sun City Center, FL	2.0	2.0	984	$1,500	$1.52	26d	1	1.06mi
323 Knottwood Ct #1 Sun City Center, FL	1.0	1.0	908	$1,090	$1.20	7d	1	1.07mi
323 Knottwood Ct Sun City Center, FL	1.0	1.0	908	$1,290	$1.42	26d	1	1.07mi
1013 Ardmore Way Sun City Center, FL	2.0	2.0	1857	$1,795	$0.97	26d	1	1.14mi
301 Bryce Ct Sun City Center, FL	2.0	2.0	1830	$1,850	$1.01	26d	1	1.15mi
1750 Atrium Dr Sun City Center, FL	2.0	2.0	1367	$1,750	$1.28	26d	1	1.16mi
704 Tremont Greens Ln Unit 107 Sun City Center, FL	2.0	2.0	974	$1,700	$1.75	26d	1	1.37mi
16705 Myrtle Sand Dr Wimauma, FL	3.0	2.0	1253	$2,350	$1.88	26d	1	1.41mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $148 · $1,776/yr

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-26
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-01
   price $229,900
3. 2026-03-05
   price $239,900
4. 2026-01-24
   listed $250,000 Active
5. 2014-06-13
   soldstatus $80,500
6. 1989-11-01
   soldstatus $25,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,061 · $88/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,908 · $159/mo
• Expected delta: +$847/yr (+$71/mo · 79.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,342
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,878
• − Property taxes: −$1,061
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,787
• − Management: −$1,787
• − HOA: −$1,776
• − Depreciation: −$6,688
• Taxable loss: −$4,785
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,148
• After-tax cash flow: $345/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

Livability — Sun City Center

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #178
• US rank: #2736

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living B+ Crime B+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sun City Center, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,540,968 people
• City population: 35,362
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 35,362
• Household income: $72,834
• Rent vs Own: 17.3% rent · 82.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1382.0

Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 11% Black 10% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 10% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -3.27%
• Current HPI: 272.9767
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.65%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+819.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-26 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $229,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $239,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-24 Listed $250,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-06-13 Sold (Public Records) $80,500 Public Records
• 1989-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,061 · +6.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.