11149 76th Ln NE · Otsego, MN 55301

$309,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,872 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 28 Days on market

Built 2006 1,716 sqft lot $166/sqft · at area comps Est $353k · 12% under $267/mo HOA · 10% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.8/30.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Townhome living with Wetland views!Enjoy the views from the bright 4 season porch! The soaring ceilings are a must see! 3 bath /3 bedrooms and a newly finished lower level with walkout! Call for your private showing!

Key facts

• Walkout basement
• Deep soaker tub
• Newer carpet

Tags

• PRIVATE NATURE VIEWS
• WALKOUT BASEMENT
• NEW GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• TILE BACKSPLASH
• DEEP SOAKER TUB
• NEWER CARPET

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association managed by First Service Residential; HOA fee $267 per month covering hazard insurance, lawn care, grounds maintenance and snow removal

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with automatic door opener
• Utilities: City water connected; City sewer connected; Natural gas
• Home design: Attached residential property; More than 2 stories; Entry level details not provided
• Construction: Block and brick construction; Block foundation; Construction materials include stone/metal/vinyl
• Exterior features: Stone, metal and vinyl exterior; Patio; Sun room; Lot approximately 10x10

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen with center island; Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms (beds located on upper and lower levels)
• Bathrooms: One full bath (upper level); One three-quarter bath (basement); One half bath (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced-air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Sun room; Vaulted ceilings; Patio; Finished walkout basement; One fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Owned water softener

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $310k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-143 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $285k (8.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $271k (12.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $271k (12.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 4.0% in Otsego — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#367 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Independent School District 728 (suburban): math 56% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #37 of 301 in MN (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Otsego Elementary (math 64% / reading 64%, grade B, #157 of 857 statewide, top 19%, 563 students, 21% FRL); Rogers Middle School (math 61% / reading 63%, grade B+, #19 of 258 statewide, top 8%, 979 students, 16% FRL); Rogers Senior High (math 66% / reading 64%, grade B, #28 of 471 statewide, top 6%, 1,740 students, 18% FRL) — zoned schools at 18% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 143 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,260 units permitted in Wright County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wright County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($305k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $199k; list at $310k implies a 56% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $271,047 (12.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.74%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.97%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $352,639
• List price: $309,900
• Delta: -12.12%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-59,165
• Equity at exit: $46,207

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-62,686
• Equity at exit: $26,794

Cash invested: $86,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55301

• Home prices YoY: -14.2%
• Active inventory: 143
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,710 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,625
• Tax from tax record: −$262 /mo · $3,150/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• HOA: −$267
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$569
• Net cashflow: $-143

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,891

Max offer price $284,726

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $33	-5% $-55	+0% $-143	+5% $-230	+10% $-318
Rent	-10% $-357	-5% $-250	+0% $-143	+5% $-35	+10% $72
Rate	-1.0pp $14	-0.5pp $-64	base $-143	+0.5pp $-223	+1.0pp $-305

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,475
• Closing costs: $9,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7712 Lachman Ave NE Albertville, MN	3.0	2.0	1525	$2,259	$1.48	0d	1	0.11mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $267 · $3,204/yr

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-05-19
   historical Contingent - Inspection 1379-char remark
2. 2026-05-14
   price $309,900 1379-char remark
3. 2026-05-06
   price $319,900 1379-char remark
4. 2026-05-01
   status Active
5. 2026-05-01
   listed $324,900 Active 1379-char remark
6. 2026-05-01
   historical
7. 2026-04-29
   historical
8. 2026-04-06
   status Active
9. 2026-04-04
   historical Contingent - Other
10. 2026-03-26
    price $339,900
11. 2026-02-16
    price $349,900
12. 2026-02-06
    listed $369,900 Active
13. 2016-08-09
    soldstatus $199,000
14. 2016-05-20
    soldstatus $199,000 Sold

    Show marketing remark (222 chars)

    Townhome living with Wetland views!Enjoy the views from the bright 4 season porch! The soaring ceilings are a must see! 3 bath /3 bedrooms and a newly finished lower level with walkout! Call for your private showing!

15. 2016-04-11
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (222 chars)

    Townhome living with Wetland views!Enjoy the views from the bright 4 season porch! The soaring ceilings are a must see! 3 bath /3 bedrooms and a newly finished lower level with walkout! Call for your private showing!

16. 2016-03-19
    historical Contingent - Inspection

    Show marketing remark (222 chars)

    Townhome living with Wetland views!Enjoy the views from the bright 4 season porch! The soaring ceilings are a must see! 3 bath /3 bedrooms and a newly finished lower level with walkout! Call for your private showing!

17. 2016-03-09
    listed $199,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (222 chars)

    Townhome living with Wetland views!Enjoy the views from the bright 4 season porch! The soaring ceilings are a must see! 3 bath /3 bedrooms and a newly finished lower level with walkout! Call for your private showing!

18. 2007-03-09
    soldstatus $198,950
19. 2007-02-12
    historical
20. 2006-11-02
    listed $197,950

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,150 · $262/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,310 · $276/mo
• Expected delta: +$160/yr (+$13/mo · 5.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,526
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,359
• − Property taxes: −$3,150
• − Insurance: −$1,550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,602
• − Management: −$2,602
• − HOA: −$3,204
• − Depreciation: −$9,015
• Taxable loss: −$6,956
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,670
• After-tax cash flow: $-40/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Independent School District 728
• NCES district ID: 2711370
• Math proficiency: 56% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $82,336
• Composite: 52.5/100
• National rank: #1567
• State rank: #37 of 301 in MN

Livability — Otsego

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #367
• US rank: #8641

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Otsego, MN
• County: Wright County · 79,164 people
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 13,482
• Household income: $129,232
• Rent vs Own: 8.6% rent · 91.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 50.0

Population outlook (Wright County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 142,526 people
• By 2030: 146,915 · +3.1%
• By 2040: 153,625 · +7.8%
• By 2050: 155,416 · +9.0%
• By 2075: 150,352 · +5.5%
• By 2100: 130,631 · -8.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Black 7% Two or more races 5% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 10% Romanian 5% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 7% · South Korea, China, Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Wright

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.4) · D 34.4% · R 63.8% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.9pp toward R · 2008: -17.4pp · 2024: -29.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.4 2020: R+28.6 2016: R+33.2 2012: R+21.4 2008: R+17.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -38.52%
• Current HPI: 233.6299
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+56.6% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-19 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $309,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $319,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-01 Relisted — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-01 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-01 Listed $324,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-29 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-06 Relisted — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-04 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-26 Price Changed $339,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-16 Price Changed $349,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-06 Listed $369,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-08-09 Sold (Public Records) $199,000 Public Records
• 2016-05-20 Sold (MLS) $199,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-04-11 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-03-19 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-03-09 Listed $199,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-03-09 Sold (MLS) $198,950 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-02-12 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-11-02 Listed $197,950 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,150 · -5.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.