13 Willow St · Rochester, NY 14606

$69,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1910 2,400 sqft lot Est $132k · 47% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Come see this charming 3-bedroom, 1-bath single-family home offering over 1,000 square feet of living space. Built in 1910, this property blends classic character with great potential for homeowners or investors alike. Conveniently located near schools, parks, shopping, and major expressways, this home provides easy access to everything Rochester has to offer. A great opportunity to own affordable home with strong rental or owner- occupant appeal in a growing area. delayed showings 6/2/2026 at 8am delayed negotiations 6/10/2026 at 12pm.

Key facts

• Easy access
• Classic character
• Single-family home

Tags

• SINGLE-FAMILY HOME
• CLASSIC CHARACTER
• EASY ACCESS
• GROWING AREA

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage; No driveway
• Utilities: Public water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: 2-story property; Existing construction
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Near public transit; Rectangular residential lot; City street frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 1 main-level bedroom
• Flooring: Hardwood; Tile; Varies
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Gas heating; Hot water/steam heating
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Other (see remarks)
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $681 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $69k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.0% vs local median 9.3% in Rochester — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#222 in NY, #3,482 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, employment F.
• Rochester City School District (urban): math 21% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #589 of 590 in NY (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 82% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.3%/yr); 124 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 46% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,169 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (591 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $483 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Monroe County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.3% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($69k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $44k; list at $70k implies a 58% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $68,851 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 41.74%
• DSCR: 2.86
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $132,048
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
25 Emerson Park	0.07mi	2/1.5 (-1)	996 (-1%)	4mo	$98,000	$98	84
12 Oriole St	0.35mi	3/1.0	1,040 (+3%)	3mo	$115,000	$111	76
32 Michigan St	0.10mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,081 (+7%)	5mo	$96,000	$89	72
20 Wolff St	0.31mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,041 (+3%)	4mo	$67,000	$64	71
52 Dix St	0.26mi	3/1.0	918 (-9%)	5mo	$65,000	$71	69
175 Curlew St	0.46mi	3/1.0	1,056 (+5%)	5mo	$120,000	$114	66
60 Starling St	0.51mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,034 (+3%)	5mo	$135,000	$131	63
306 Curlew St	0.57mi	3/1.5	974 (-3%)	4mo	$160,000	$164	62
507 Ames St	0.75mi	3/1.0	1,020 (+1%)	3mo	$146,000	$143	60
148 Canton St	0.57mi	2/1.0 (-1)	936 (-7%)	3mo	$145,000	$155	54
1008 Glide St	0.64mi	3/1.5	1,106 (+10%)	1mo	$200,000	$181	52
381 Mcnaughton St	0.54mi	2/1.0 (-1)	900 (-11%)	3mo	$145,000	$161	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.28% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 41.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.88×
• Total profit: $36,863
• Equity at exit: $10,422

10-year hold

• IRR: 49.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.58×
• Total profit: $109,127
• Equity at exit: $6,044

Cash invested: $19,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14606

• Home prices YoY: -17.9%
• Rents YoY: 6.3%
• Active inventory: 124
• Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,418 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$43 /mo · $522/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$298
• Net cashflow: $681

Break-even live

Break-even rent $556

Max offer price $69,900

Occupancy floor 47%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $720	-5% $701	+0% $681	+5% $661	+10% $641
Rent	-10% $569	-5% $625	+0% $681	+5% $737	+10% $793
Rate	-1.0pp $716	-0.5pp $699	base $681	+0.5pp $663	+1.0pp $644

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,475
• Closing costs: $2,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 24 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
25 Karnes St Rochester, NY	2.0	1.0	1059	$1,250	$1.18	21d	1	0.11mi
85 Cameron St Unit B Rochester, NY	3.0	1.0	1138	$1,650	$1.45	44d	1	0.31mi
69 Angle St Rochester, NY	2.0	1.0	1500	$1,500	$1.00	15d	1	0.37mi
84 Twin Beeches Rochester, NY	2.0	1.5	1096	$1,250	$1.14	24d	1	0.59mi
52 Lorimer St Unit 03 UP Rear Rochester, NY	2.0	1.0	700	$1,000	$1.43	24d	1	0.59mi
89 Twin Beeches Rochester, NY	2.0	1.5	1096	$1,250	$1.14	44d	1	0.60mi
39 Parkway Apt 1 Rochester, NY	2.0	1.0	700	$950	$1.36	44d	1	0.61mi
254 Lexington Ave Rochester, NY	3.0	1.0	950	$1,350	$1.42	3d	1	0.63mi
265 Driving Park Ave Unit 31 Rochester, NY	2.0	1.0	810	$1,250	$1.54	44d	1	0.70mi
710-712 Jay St Unit 3 Rochester, NY	2.0	1.0	1252	$895	$0.71	44d	1	0.79mi
658 Smith St Rochester, NY	2.0	1.0	981	$1,500	$1.53	3d	1	0.83mi
629 Jay St Rochester, NY	3.0	1.0	1193	$1,250	$1.05	19d	1	0.83mi
28-30 Carthage Dr Unit 28 Rochester, NY	3.0	1.0	1415	$1,600	$1.13	24d	1	0.93mi
108 Wetmore Park Rochester, NY	3.0	2.0	1278	$1,900	$1.49	11d	1	1.03mi
76 Avenue A Unit Up Rochester, NY	3.0	1.0	796	$1,700	$2.14	44d	1	1.04mi
1016 Lake Ave Unit 1 Rochester, NY	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,600	$1.23	44d	1	1.04mi
1097 Dewey Ave Unit B Rochester, NY	2.0	1.0	1008	$1,150	$1.14	15d	1	1.04mi
257 Hague St Unit 257 Rochester, NY	2.0	1.5	1080	$1,500	$1.39	44d	1	1.10mi
2 Jay St Unit 2 Rochester, NY	3.0	1.0	1252	$1,045	$0.83	44d	1	1.12mi
802 Maple St Rochester, NY	2.0	1.5	1080	$1,800	$1.67	44d	1	1.15mi
76 Dodge St Rochester, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	742	$1,250	$1.68	44d	6	1.30mi
19 Garland Ave Rochester, NY	3.0	1.0	1104	$1,850	$1.68	3d	1	1.30mi
287 Electric Ave Rochester, NY	3.0	1.5	1297	$1,500	$1.16	3d	1	1.36mi
45 Clay Ave Rochester, NY	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,700	$1.70	15d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $69,900 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $69,900 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $69,900 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $69,900 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $69,900 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $69,900 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $69,900 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $69,900 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $69,900 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $69,900 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $69,900 Active 2 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    remarks 542-char remark
13. 2026-06-03
    listed $69,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $522 · $43/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $851 · $71/mo
• Expected delta: +$330/yr (+$27/mo · 63.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,012
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,915
• − Property taxes: −$522
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,361
• − Management: −$1,361
• − Depreciation: −$2,033
• Taxable income: $7,470
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,793
• After-tax cash flow: $6,377/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rochester City School District
• NCES district ID: 3624750
• Math proficiency: 21% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $30,923
• Composite: 18.98/100
• National rank: #8850
• State rank: #589 of 590 in NY

Livability — Rochester

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #3482

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rochester, NY
• County: Monroe County · 674,131 people
• Metro: Rochester, NY
• Population (ZIP): 25,538
• Household income: $55,807
• Rent vs Own: 38.2% rent · 61.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 986.0

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 759,460 people
• By 2030: 757,154 · -0.3%
• By 2040: 740,644 · -2.5%
• By 2050: 714,443 · -5.9%
• By 2075: 645,883 · -15.0%
• By 2100: 547,084 · -28.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Black 26% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 8% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 12% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam, Philippines
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: D (+19.1) · D 59.5% · R 40.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.4pp toward D · 2008: 17.7pp · 2024: 19.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.1 2020: D+21.0 2016: D+14.1 2012: D+17.4 2008: D+17.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -62.59%
• Current HPI: 287.6868
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.28%
• Metro: Rochester, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+57.8% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $69,900 UNYREIS
• 1993-01-14 Sold (Public Records) $44,300 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $522 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.