321 Clay St · Ashland, OR 97520

$225,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 105 sqft · Other public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1996

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautiful manufactured home in an all ages park with three ponds and abundant wildlife. This home only has a neighbor on one side so the other side is open to the mountains and the city of Ashland. A small stream to bear creek runs behind the house just beyond the fenced in yard. The house sits up higher than those around it and has a nice carport and porch. Redwood stairs are on either door to the front or back of the home. The current owner is a mosaic artist and has built a patio for the hot tub from various large pieces left over from her works in Ashland. There is a small shed that matches the house, an old greenhouse and a side work/studio space under the carport side. A variety of pl

Key facts

• Three ponds
• Abundant wildlife
• Carport

Tags

• THREE PONDS
• ABUNDANT WILDLIFE
• OPEN TO THE MOUNTAINS
• SMALL STREAM
• FENCED IN YARD
• CARPORT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-7 ($-78/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $224k (0.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $196k (12.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $196k (12.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 2.1% in Ashland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#42 in OR, #1,019 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Ashland SD 5 (suburban): math 59% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #5 of 183 in OR (top 3%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.7%/yr); 365 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 904 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (212 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($68k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jackson County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($222k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 32 sale attempts since 30y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $225k implies a 1054% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $196,002 (12.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.12%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.69% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-39,395
• Equity at exit: $33,548

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-44,911
• Equity at exit: $19,454

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97520

• Rents YoY: 1.7%
• Active inventory: 365
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,960 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$281 /mo · $3,375/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$412
• Net cashflow: $-7

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,968

Max offer price $224,058

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 25 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2221 Dollarhide Way Ashland, OR	3.0	2.5	1666	$2,350	$1.41	20d	1	0.20mi
295 Tolman Creek Rd Ashland, OR	2.0	2.0	988	$1,995	$2.02	13d	1	0.32mi
635 Park St Ashland, OR	2.0	1.0	—	$1,595	—	20d	1	0.35mi
639 Park St Unit 641 Ashland, OR	2.0	1.0	—	$1,595	—	20d	1	0.35mi
641 Park St Ashland, OR	2.0	1.0	—	$1,595	—	20d	1	0.36mi
649 Park St Ashland, OR	3.0	1.0	—	$1,750	—	43d	1	0.37mi
647 Park St Unit 649 Ashland, OR	3.0	1.0	—	$1,750	—	43d	1	0.37mi
45 Crocker St Ashland, OR	3.0	2.5	1608	$2,350	$1.46	43d	1	0.37mi
706 Normal Ave Ashland, OR	2.0	1.0	1250	$2,500	$2.00	43d	1	0.45mi
706 Normal Ave Ashland, OR	2.0	1.0	1250	$2,500	$2.00	13d	1	0.45mi
732 Normal Ave Unit 732 Ashland, OR	2.0	2.5	1111	$1,895	$1.71	13d	1	0.46mi
791 Faith Ave Ashland, OR	3.0	2.0	1420	$2,600	$1.83	20d	1	0.49mi
826 Park St Unit 826 Ashland, OR	2.0	2.5	1234	$1,995	$1.62	20d	1	0.55mi
2976 Grizzly Dr Ashland, OR	3.0	2.0	1354	$2,350	$1.74	20d	1	0.57mi
2080 Siskiyou Blvd Ashland, OR	2.0	1.0	882	$1,500	$1.70	20d	1	0.66mi
2555 Spring Hill Dr Ashland, OR	3.0	2.0	1555	$2,300	$1.48	43d	1	0.76mi
2370 Siskiyou Blvd Ashland, OR	2.0	2.5	1252	$1,995	$1.59	13d	1	0.85mi
77 California St Unit 5 Ashland, OR	2.0	1.0	1025	$1,150	$1.12	43d	1	0.93mi
93 California St Ashland, OR	3.0	1.0	1132	$2,095	$1.85	20d	1	0.94mi
593 Oak Knoll Dr Ashland, OR	3.0	2.0	1608	$2,600	$1.62	13d	1	0.94mi
102 Garfield St Apt 20 Ashland, OR	2.0	1.0	828	$1,150	$1.39	43d	1	0.96mi
139 N Wightman St Ashland, OR	2.0	2.0	1214	$2,250	$1.85	43d	1	0.98mi
854 Twin Pines Cir #12 Ashland, OR	2.0	1.0	896	$1,700	$1.90	13d	1	1.07mi
171 Alida St Unit 1712 Ashland, OR	2.0	1.0	—	$1,595	—	43d	1	1.29mi
671 Siskiyou Blvd Ashland, OR	2.0	2.0	—	$3,750	—	13d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $225,000 Active 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $225,000 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $225,000 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $225,000 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $225,000 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $225,000 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $225,000 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $225,000 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $225,000 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $225,000 Active 4 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $225,000 Active 3 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    remarks 699-char remark
13. 2026-06-05
    listed $225,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 33 unhealthy d/yr today · 34 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,520
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$3,375
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,882
• − Management: −$1,882
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$3,892
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$934
• After-tax cash flow: $856/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ashland SD 5
• NCES district ID: 4101560
• Math proficiency: 59% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $45,917
• Composite: 57.0/100
• National rank: #2358
• State rank: #5 of 183 in OR

Livability — Ashland

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #42
• US rank: #1019

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime C+ Employment C+ Housing C+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ashland, OR
• County: Jackson County · 159,661 people
• City population: 26,512
• Metro: Medford, OR
• Population (ZIP): 26,512
• Household income: $67,948
• Rent vs Own: 42.3% rent · 57.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1727.0

Population outlook (Jackson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 234,433 people
• By 2030: 243,834 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 259,717 · +10.8%
• By 2050: 273,269 · +16.6%
• By 2075: 300,624 · +28.2%
• By 2100: 305,256 · +30.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Lithuanian 5% Portuguese 4%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jackson

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.4) · D 45.5% · R 51.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: 0.1pp · 2024: -6.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.4 2020: R+3.5 2016: R+9.2 2012: R+5.0 2008: D+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -555.69%
• Current HPI: 231.9587
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.69%
• Metro: Medford, OR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

+690.9% since first listed

65 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $225,000 ForSaleByOwner.com
• 2020-04-26 Listing Removed — MLSCO
• 2020-04-26 Listing Removed — MLSCO
• 2020-04-25 Listing Removed — MLSCO
• 2020-04-25 Listing Removed — MLSCO
• 2020-04-25 Listing Removed — MLSCO
• 2020-04-25 Listing Removed — MLSCO
• 2020-04-25 Listing Removed — MLSCO
• 2020-04-25 Listing Removed — MLSCO
• 2020-04-25 Listing Removed — MLSCO
• 2020-04-25 Listing Removed — MLSCO
• 2020-04-25 Listing Removed — MLSCO
• 2020-04-25 Listing Removed — MLSCO
• 2020-04-25 Listing Removed — MLSCO
• 2020-04-25 Listing Removed — MLSCO
• 2020-04-25 Listing Removed — MLSCO
• 2020-04-25 Listing Removed — MLSCO
• 2020-04-25 Listing Removed — MLSCO
• 2020-04-25 Listing Removed — MLSCO
• 2002-07-30 Listed $70,000 MLSCO
• 2002-05-16 Sold (MLS) $19,500 MLSCO
• 2002-04-02 Listed $64,900 MLSCO
• 2001-12-26 Sold (MLS) $37,505 MLSCO
• 2001-12-20 Sold (MLS) $25,000 MLSCO
• 2001-12-13 Listed $19,900 MLSCO
• 2001-12-13 Listed $19,900 MLSCO
• 2001-10-04 Listed $25,000 MLSCO
• 2001-08-02 Sold (MLS) $22,500 MLSCO
• 2001-08-02 Sold (MLS) $22,500 MLSCO
• 2001-07-16 Listed $22,500 MLSCO
• 2001-06-19 Listed $22,500 MLSCO
• 2001-06-15 Listed $59,900 MLSCO
• 2001-06-15 Listed $15,000 MLSCO
• 2001-05-15 Listed $39,500 MLSCO
• 2001-04-29 Listed $48,000 MLSCO
• 2000-03-08 Listed $61,900 MLSCO
• 1999-07-28 Sold (MLS) $63,000 MLSCO
• 1999-04-23 Sold (MLS) $24,000 MLSCO
• 1999-04-16 Listed $53,000 MLSCO
• 1999-04-09 Listed $68,000 MLSCO
• 1999-03-17 Listed $24,900 MLSCO
• 1999-01-08 Sold (MLS) $37,000 MLSCO
• 1998-12-18 Listed $37,500 MLSCO
• 1998-10-15 Listed $30,000 MLSCO
• 1998-10-09 Listed $17,500 MLSCO
• 1998-10-08 Sold (MLS) $16,500 MLSCO
• 1998-08-03 Sold (MLS) $22,500 MLSCO
• 1998-07-15 Listed $22,900 MLSCO
• 1998-06-17 Listed $12,500 MLSCO
• 1998-05-29 Listed $19,500 MLSCO
• 1998-03-05 Sold (MLS) $18,500 MLSCO
• 1998-02-25 Listed $20,500 MLSCO
• 1998-01-30 Listed $45,000 MLSCO
• 1998-01-16 Listed $22,900 MLSCO
• 1997-11-26 Listed $18,500 MLSCO
• 1997-09-22 Listed $59,900 MLSCO
• 1997-07-03 Sold (MLS) $42,000 MLSCO
• 1997-06-13 Listed $43,500 MLSCO
• 1997-05-29 Sold (MLS) $14,800 MLSCO
• 1997-05-20 Listed $18,000 MLSCO
• 1997-03-14 Sold (MLS) $14,000 MLSCO
• 1997-02-13 Listed $14,000 MLSCO
• 1996-11-02 Listed $15,000 MLSCO
• 1996-10-12 Listed $23,900 MLSCO
• 1996-10-08 Sold (MLS) $28,450 MLSCO

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $44,908 · +2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.