918 Willow Bend Dr · Wilmington, OH 45177

$347,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,704 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 70 Days on market

Built 2002 $204/sqft · 12% above area Est $311k · 12% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.4/30.0
• DSCR +9.6/10.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +2.3/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great location in a highly desirable neighborhood! This well-maintained home features wide hallways and doorways, offering easy mobility for furniture or wheelchair access. The finished basement provides the perfect space for entertaining, while the beautiful enclosed porch is ideal for enjoying your morning coffee.

Key facts

• Great location
• Wide hallways
• Finished basement

Tags

• GREAT LOCATION
• HIGHLY DESIRABLE NEIGHBORHOOD
• WIDE HALLWAYS
• FINISHED BASEMENT
• ENCLOSED PORCH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $347k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $347k).
• Recommended offer: $326k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.8% vs local median 6.2% in Wilmington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#202 in OH, #3,127 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities D, commute F.
• Wilmington City (town): math 42% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #492 of 656 in OH (top 75%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 107 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 119 units permitted in Clinton County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,096/mo this rent would consume 70% of the median local household income ($70k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clinton County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $97k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($326k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $185k; list at $347k implies a 88% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $326,180 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.52%
• DSCR: 1.56
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $310,878
• List price: $347,000
• Delta: 11.62%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1181 Blue Spruce Ln	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,500 (-12%)	1mo	$304,000	$203	70
1206 Timber Glen Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,468 (-14%)	2mo	$292,500	$199	67
1268 Timber Glen Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,495 (-12%)	7mo	$299,900	$201	62
21 Garden Cir	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,853 (+9%)	11mo	$314,900	$170	60
1300 Blue Spruce Ln	0.30mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,797 (+6%)	14mo	$426,244	$237	56
432 Red Maple Ln	0.37mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,802 (+6%)	12mo	$449,940	$250	54
97 Glenwood Cir	0.34mi	3/1.5	1,596 (-6%)	22mo	$250,000	$157	53
1985 St Rt 730	0.69mi	3/3.0	1,860 (+9%)	4mo	$305,000	$164	45
1282 Ridge Rd	0.31mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,896 (+11%)	18mo	$250,000	$132	45
641 Norman St	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,800 (+6%)	21mo	$204,500	$114	44
365 Maple Ridge Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,528 (-10%)	22mo	$225,000	$147	44
434 Randolph St	0.56mi	3/3.0	1,472 (-14%)	15mo	$227,500	$155	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.09×
• Total profit: $8,295
• Equity at exit: $51,739

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.93×
• Total profit: $90,179
• Equity at exit: $30,002

Cash invested: $97,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 45177

• Active inventory: 107
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,096 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,820
• Tax from tax record: −$258 /mo · $3,096/yr
• Insurance: −$145
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$860
• Net cashflow: $1,014

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,813

Max offer price $347,000

Occupancy floor 70%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $86,750
• Closing costs: $10,410
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
109 Southwind Blvd Wilmington, OH	3.0	2.0	1344	$4,995	$3.72	2d	1	0.93mi
121 Southwind Blvd Wilmington, OH	3.0	2.0	1344	$4,995	$3.72	2d	1	0.93mi
229 Taylor Dr Wilmington, OH	3.0	2.0	1242	$2,000	$1.61	11d	1	1.00mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on market $347,000 Active 70 DOM
2. 2026-06-14
   days on market $347,000 Active 68 DOM
3. 2026-06-10
   days on market $347,000 Active 65 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $347,000 Active 64 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $347,000 Active 63 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $347,000 Active 62 DOM
7. 2026-06-05
   days on market $347,000 Active 59 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $347,000 Active 58 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $347,000 Active 57 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $347,000 Active 56 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $347,000 Active 55 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $347,000 Active 54 DOM
13. 2026-04-27
    price $347,000 317-char remark

    Show marketing remark (317 chars)

    Great location in a highly desirable neighborhood! This well-maintained home features wide hallways and doorways, offering easy mobility for furniture or wheelchair access. The finished basement provides the perfect space for entertaining, while the beautiful enclosed porch is ideal for enjoying your morning coffee.

14. 2026-04-06
    listed $355,000 Active 317-char remark

    Show marketing remark (317 chars)

    Great location in a highly desirable neighborhood! This well-maintained home features wide hallways and doorways, offering easy mobility for furniture or wheelchair access. The finished basement provides the perfect space for entertaining, while the beautiful enclosed porch is ideal for enjoying your morning coffee.

15. 2016-01-08
    soldstatus $185,000
16. 2002-10-29
    soldstatus $147,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,096 · $258/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,255 · $355/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,159/yr (+$97/mo · 37.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $49,156
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,437
• − Property taxes: −$3,096
• − Insurance: −$1,735
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,932
• − Management: −$3,932
• − Depreciation: −$10,095
• Taxable income: $6,928
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,663
• After-tax cash flow: $10,503/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wilmington City
• NCES district ID: 3904511
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $43,201
• Composite: 39.2/100
• National rank: #4020
• State rank: #492 of 656 in OH

Livability — Wilmington

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #202
• US rank: #3127

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wilmington, OH
• County: Clinton · 46,911 people
• Population (ZIP): 22,442
• Household income: $70,483
• Rent vs Own: 30.6% rent · 69.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 9.5

Population outlook (Clinton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 41,352 people
• By 2030: 40,831 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 39,049 · -5.6%
• By 2050: 36,408 · -12.0%
• By 2075: 29,652 · -28.3%
• By 2100: 20,736 · -49.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 3% Black 3% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clinton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+54.6) · D 22.3% · R 76.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.3pp toward R · 2008: -30.3pp · 2024: -54.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+54.6 2020: R+52.6 2016: R+52.6 2012: R+35.2 2008: R+30.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -150.35%
• Current HPI: 238.9182
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+136.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $347,000 Cincy MLS
• 2026-04-06 Listed $355,000 Cincy MLS
• 2016-01-08 Sold (Public Records) $185,000 Public Records
• 2002-10-29 Sold (Public Records) $147,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,096 · -3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.