563 Coconut Ave · Goodland, FL 34140

$100,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 750 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1227 Days on market

Built 1964 5,663 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.4/5.0

Listing remarks

PRICE DROP!! Great new price for this property & location!! Bring your offers before it's gone! This is a great location with wonderful potential! Main home upstairs features 2 bedrooms and 1 bathroom, front porch in the entry way and a back deck off the kitchen with an amazing view of the quiet small bay/canal which leads out to Blue Hill Bay and Coon Key Pass. .. less than 10 minutes and you're at Calusa Island Marina There is a one car garage and plenty of open parking! This property needs TLC. Property being sold as is for the convenience of the seller.

Key facts

• 5,663 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1964

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: On waterfront with 120 feet total frontage (60 ft canal saltwater, 60 ft lagoon); Water access: Canal (saltwater), Gulf/Ocean to Bay, Intracoastal Waterway, Marina; Water features: Canal, Lagoon; water extras include no-fixed-bridge clearance, lift, concrete seawall; Lot dimensions approximately 60 x 100 (0.13 acres); Road surface: Asphalt
• Financial info: No lease restrictions
• HOA & community: No association fees; No association approval required; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: 1-car garage (15 x 25); Boat parking; Parking pad
• Security: No specific security features listed
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank; Cable connected; Electricity connected; Broadband/High-speed internet available
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; Two levels; Stilt / on piling foundation; Faces west; Completed condition
• Construction: Frame construction; Metal roof; Built with stilt/on piling foundation
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; Porch; Balcony; Rain gutters; Sliding doors; Mature landscaping; Flood zone; Street dead-end; Paved and private road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Wall/Window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Attic ventilator; Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer not specified (unfurnished listing)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $259 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 47/100 on livability (#893 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 22 active listings in the ZIP; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($691 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 1227 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $900k (90%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.4% of price; flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $88,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 1227 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.38%
• DSCR: 2.31
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.03×
• Total profit: $28,977
• Equity at exit: $44,964

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.88×
• Total profit: $80,666
• Equity at exit: $69,295

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34140

• Active inventory: 22
• Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,046 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$365 /mo · $4,379/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$430
• Net cashflow: $259

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,718

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $100,000 Active 1227 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $100,000 Active 1226 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $100,000 Active 1225 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   pricedays on market $100,000 Active 1224 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $505,000 Active 1219 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $505,000 Active 1218 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $505,000 Active 1217 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $505,000 Active 1216 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $505,000 Active 1211 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $505,000 Active 1210 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $505,000 Active 1209 DOM
12. 2026-05-30
    days on market $505,000 Active 1208 DOM
13. 2026-04-22
    price $505,000
14. 2025-08-09
    price $525,000
15. 2025-05-01
    price $575,000
16. 2025-01-28
    price $600,000
17. 2024-10-23
    price $650,000
18. 2024-09-23
    status Active
19. 2024-08-16
    status Active
20. 2024-08-16
    price $450,000
21. 2024-05-15
    price $850,000
22. 2024-04-02
    status Active
23. 2024-04-02
    price $865,000
24. 2024-01-02
    price $875,000
25. 2022-12-29
    price $950,000
26. 2022-08-09
    listed $999,900 Active
27. 2019-12-31
    historical
28. 2018-08-20
    listed $411,800 Active
29. 2018-01-14
    historical
30. 2017-08-22
    listed $411,800
31. 1989-05-01
    soldstatus $90,000
32. 1969-03-01
    soldstatus $15,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,379 · $365/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,379 · $365/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,554
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$4,379
• − Insurance: −$5,618
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,964
• − Management: −$1,964
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $2,117
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$508
• After-tax cash flow: $2,599/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Collier
• NCES district ID: 1200330
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,275
• Composite: 50.23/100
• National rank: #1892
• State rank: #16 of 73 in FL

Livability — Goodland

• Score: 47/100
• State rank: #893
• US rank: #26197

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety D User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Goodland, FL
• Population (ZIP): 89

Population outlook (Collier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,858 people
• By 2030: 450,054 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 502,232 · +19.3%
• By 2050: 544,932 · +29.5%
• By 2075: 627,203 · +49.0%
• By 2100: 659,015 · +56.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (100%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 100%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 18%

Political lean MEDSL · Collier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.1) · D 33.1% · R 66.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -33.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.1 2020: R+24.7 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+30.1 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+3158.1% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $505,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-09 Price Changed $525,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-01 Price Changed $575,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-28 Price Changed $600,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-23 Price Changed $650,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-23 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-16 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-16 Price Changed $450,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-15 Price Changed $850,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-02 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-02 Price Changed $865,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-01-02 Price Changed $875,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-12-29 Price Changed $950,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-08-09 Listed $999,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-12-31 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-08-20 Listed $411,800 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-01-14 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-08-22 Listed $411,800 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1989-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records
• 1969-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $15,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,379 · +16.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.