3930 Agua Caliente Dr · Las Cruces, NM 88012

$315,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,885 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 59 Days on market

Built 2014 5,662 sqft lot $167/sqft · at area comps Est $327k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +9.2/15.0
• Cash flow +7.3/30.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious and inviting 4-bedroom, 2-bath home featuring a comfortable open floor plan designed for modern living. The seamless flow between the living, dining, and kitchen areas makes it perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. Stay cool year-round with refrigerated A/C. Generously sized bedrooms offer flexibility for family, guests, or a home office. Conveniently located near shopping, restaurants, and everyday amenities. A great opportunity to enjoy comfort, space, and functionality all in one!

Key facts

• 5,662 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2014

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $315k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-422 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $240k (23.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $199k (36.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $199k (36.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#120 in NM) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: amenities D+, schools D-, crime F.
• Las Cruces Public Schools (urban): math 42% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #5 of 29 in NM (top 17%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.5%/yr); 591 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 964 units permitted in Doña Ana County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($306k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $198,839 (36.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 37% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.69%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.74%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 13.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $327,245
• List price: $315,000
• Delta: -3.74%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.52% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-76,950
• Equity at exit: $46,968

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.11×
• Total profit: $-97,606
• Equity at exit: $27,235

Cash invested: $88,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 88012

• Home prices YoY: -26.2%
• Rents YoY: 3.5%
• Active inventory: 591
• Price-to-rent: 13.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,988 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,652
• Tax from tax record: −$210 /mo · $2,515/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$418
• Net cashflow: $-422

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,522

Max offer price $240,476

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,750
• Closing costs: $9,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3350 Longview Ln Las Cruces, NM	3.0	2.0	2135	$1,895	$0.89	43d	1	0.17mi
3670 Gem St Las Cruces, NM	3.0	2.0	1446	$1,700	$1.18	43d	1	0.28mi
4025 Boardwalk Rd Las Cruces, NM	4.0	2.5	2530	$2,495	$0.99	21d	1	0.29mi
3704 Chromite Ct Las Cruces, NM	3.0	2.0	1380	$1,500	$1.09	43d	1	0.48mi
5015 Emerald St Las Cruces, NM	3.0	2.0	1426	$1,450	$1.02	43d	1	0.49mi
1485 Bison Spring Dr Las Cruces, NM	4.0	2.0	1740	$1,999	$1.15	43d	1	0.62mi
7353 Vista de Sobre Dr Las Cruces, NM	3.0	2.0	1506	$1,895	$1.26	43d	1	0.71mi
3860 Las Colinas Dr Las Cruces, NM	3.0	2.5	1550	$1,600	$1.03	21d	1	0.78mi
3862 Van Ess Ct Las Cruces, NM	3.0	2.0	1489	$1,545	$1.04	13d	1	0.80mi
7559 Vista de Oeste Pl Las Cruces, NM	3.0	2.0	1234	$2,000	$1.62	43d	1	0.94mi
3575 Sierra del Sol Ave Las Cruces, NM	3.0	2.0	1700	$1,950	$1.15	43d	1	1.04mi
7516 Sierra de Oro Pl Las Cruces, NM	4.0	2.0	1549	$1,895	$1.22	13d	1	1.05mi
4604 Pyramid Peak Dr Las Cruces, NM	3.0	2.0	1470	$1,525	$1.04	43d	1	1.12mi
4260 Northrise Dr Las Cruces, NM	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1096	$1,736	$1.58	13d	7	1.29mi
3833 Ranchers Rd Las Cruces, NM	3.0	2.0	1600	$2,000	$1.25	43d	1	1.30mi
1977 Pine Trail St Apt B Las Cruces, NM	3.0	2.0	1261	$1,625	$1.29	43d	1	1.40mi
4023 Apache Pine Pl Unit D Las Cruces, NM	4.0	2.0	1629	$1,850	$1.14	43d	1	1.43mi
3260 Venus St Las Cruces, NM	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	951	$1,600	$1.68	13d	6	1.47mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $315,000 Active 59 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $315,000 Active 58 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $315,000 Active 57 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $315,000 Active 56 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $315,000 Active 54 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $315,000 Active 53 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $315,000 Active 51 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $315,000 Active 50 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $315,000 Active 49 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $315,000 Active 48 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $315,000 Active 43 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $315,000 Active 42 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $315,000 Active 41 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $315,000 Active 40 DOM
15. 2026-04-17
    listed $315,000 Active 510-char remark

    Show marketing remark (510 chars)

    Spacious and inviting 4-bedroom, 2-bath home featuring a comfortable open floor plan designed for modern living. The seamless flow between the living, dining, and kitchen areas makes it perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. Stay cool year-round with refrigerated A/C. Generously sized bedrooms offer flexibility for family, guests, or a home office. Conveniently located near shopping, restaurants, and everyday amenities. A great opportunity to enjoy comfort, space, and functionality all in one!

16. 2015-06-15
    soldstatus 633-char remark

    Show marketing remark (633 chars)

    Old Southwest charm fused with energy efficiency make this stunning 4 BR, 2 BA home the best of both worlds! With 1891 SF and an open floor plan you will enjoy many custom touches such as built-ins with LED lighting, smart wiring, tile floors and granite countertops throughout, beautiful stone and wood accents. This home also includes Quik-Shield blown-in foam insulation - coupled with 2 x 6 construction, low-E double pane windows, energy star appliances and a high performance hot water heater, the potential energy saving are huge! This stunning home is move-in ready'' and can be purchased with or without a 5kw solar package.

17. 2014-03-19
    listed $209,000 633-char remark

    Show marketing remark (633 chars)

    Old Southwest charm fused with energy efficiency make this stunning 4 BR, 2 BA home the best of both worlds! With 1891 SF and an open floor plan you will enjoy many custom touches such as built-ins with LED lighting, smart wiring, tile floors and granite countertops throughout, beautiful stone and wood accents. This home also includes Quik-Shield blown-in foam insulation - coupled with 2 x 6 construction, low-E double pane windows, energy star appliances and a high performance hot water heater, the potential energy saving are huge! This stunning home is move-in ready'' and can be purchased with or without a 5kw solar package.

18. 2013-09-20
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,515 · $210/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,520 · $210/mo
• Expected delta: +$5/yr ($0/mo · 0.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,861
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,645
• − Property taxes: −$2,515
• − Insurance: −$1,575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,909
• − Management: −$1,909
• − Depreciation: −$9,164
• Taxable loss: −$10,855
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,605
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,457/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Las Cruces Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3501500
• Math proficiency: 42% ▲ 24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▲ 35.00%
• Median HH income: $41,157
• Composite: 45.98/100
• National rank: #2535
• State rank: #5 of 29 in NM

Livability — Las Cruces

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #120
• US rank: #19687

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A Health & safety D- User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Las Cruces, NM
• County: Dona Ana County · 144,044 people
• City population: 131,421
• Metro: Las Cruces, NM
• Population (ZIP): 33,158
• Household income: $69,052
• Rent vs Own: 23.8% rent · 76.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 717.0

Population outlook (Doña Ana County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 219,177 people
• By 2030: 220,967 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 222,775 · +1.6%
• By 2050: 223,576 · +2.0%
• By 2075: 228,461 · +4.2%
• By 2100: 214,536 · -2.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 63% White 32% Two or more races 25% Native American 2% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 55%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Russian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 33%

Political lean MEDSL · Doña Ana

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 53.8% · R 44.0% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.3 2016: D+18.0 2012: D+14.9 2008: D+17.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -66.04%
• Current HPI: 185.7733
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.52%
• Metro: Las Cruces, NM
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+50.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Listed $315,000 SNMMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2015-06-15 Sold (MLS) — SNMMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2014-03-19 Listed $209,000 SNMMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2013-09-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+24.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,515 · -0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.