32511 Water View Drive Dr Unit 9C · Loxley, AL 36551

$445,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,063 sqft · SingleFamily · 74 Days on market

Built 2006 Good condition Garage $216/sqft · 6% below area Est $471k · 6% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.4/30.0
• ARV discount +10.0/15.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great price on this perfect condo over looking the golf course and lake in quiet and secluded gated community of Steelwood. Where Every Day Feels Like a Retreat. This beautifully maintained 3-bed, 3-bath condo offers elevated, easy living with incredible lake views at every turn. Hardwood floors and abundant windows fill the home with natural light, while the spacious living/dining area and screened porch each feature their own cozy fireplace — perfect for entertaining or unwinding in style. The kitchen shines with granite countertops and stainless steel appliances, complemented by a wet bar with wine cooler and ice maker for effortless hosting.

Key facts

• Screened porch
• Cozy fireplace
• Granite countertops

Tags

• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• SPACIOUS LIVING DINING AREA
• SCREENED PORCH
• COZY FIREPLACE
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $445k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $6 ($68/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $390k (12.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $390k (12.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.9% in Loxley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#95 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A, employment B; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Baldwin County (rural): math 33% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #18 of 129 in AL (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Loxley Elementary School (math 22% / reading 49%, grade F, #288 of 627 statewide, top 46%, 482 students, 65% FRL); Central Baldwin Middle School (math 17% / reading 49%, grade F, #101 of 257 statewide, top 40%, 757 students, 74% FRL); Robertsdale High School (math 34% / reading 34%, grade F, #53 of 305 statewide, top 18%, 1,450 students, 64% FRL) — zoned schools average 67% FRL vs 38% district-wide (29 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 309 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,883 units permitted in Baldwin County in 2024 (481 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,900/mo this rent would consume 68% of the median local household income ($69k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baldwin County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 74 days — a 6% lower offer ($418k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $70k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $345k; 29% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $390,000 (12.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 74 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.05%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $471,024
• List price: $445,000
• Delta: -4.46%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
32541 Water View Drive Dr Unit 10-A	0.02mi	3/3.0	2,063 (0%)	2mo	$460,000	$223	98
32689 Water View Dr	0.14mi	3/2.5	1,912 (-7%)	4mo	$592,000	$310	76
32523 Lakeview Cir	0.19mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,900 (-8%)	0mo	$493,000	$259	71
32651A E Water View Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,760 (-15%)	12mo	$460,000	$261	57
33087 Shinnecock Ln	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,973 (-4%)	4mo	$610,000	$309	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-71,687
• Equity at exit: $66,351

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-61,717
• Equity at exit: $38,475

Cash invested: $124,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 7 active · 5 under contract
• Months of supply: 8.4 mo (12%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $499,900 ($225/sqft)
• Median days on market: 134 d
• This list price: 29% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +1.5% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 36551

• Home prices YoY: -19.6%
• Active inventory: 309
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,900 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,334
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$556 /mo · $6,675/yr
• Insurance: −$185
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$819
• Net cashflow: $6

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,893

Max offer price $445,000

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $313	-5% $159	+0% $6	+5% $-148	+10% $-302
Rent	-10% $-302	-5% $-148	+0% $6	+5% $160	+10% $314
Rate	-1.0pp $230	-0.5pp $119	base $6	+0.5pp $-110	+1.0pp $-227

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $111,250
• Closing costs: $13,350
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
32511 Water View Dr E Loxley, AL	3.0	3.0	2063	$3,900	$1.89	62d	1	0.03mi

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Monthly association fee of $600Association covers management, common area insurance, grounds maintenance, reserve funds and common area taxesTransfer fees applyNo listed community amenities

Exterior

• Parking: Single covered, deeded garage spaceOn-street parking availableOpen parking available
• Utilities: Electric service by Baldwin EMCSewer service by Baldwin County Sewer ServiceLoxley utilities
• Home design: Condominium, attached corner unitOne-level livingCovered porch/screened porch; rear porchLakefront view of Steelwood Lake
• Construction: Wood siding and wood frame constructionSlab foundationBuilt with assessor-recorded building area of 2,063
• Exterior features: Termite contractCovered, screened rear porch

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherElectric rangeMicrowaveRefrigerator with ice makerIce makerWine cooler
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on main level with walk-in closet and balcony/patioBedroom 2: approximately 14 x 12Bedroom 3: approximately 13 x 13
• Flooring: CarpetTileWood
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathroomsPrimary bathroom with double vanity, jetted tub, separate shower and private water closet
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating
• Interior features: Ceiling fansEn-suite bathroomStorage2 fireplaces (living room and outside)
• Laundry & utility: WasherDryerWasher/dryer stacked

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   pricedays on market $445,000 Active 74 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   remarks 693-char remark
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $450,000 Active 73 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $450,000 Active 72 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $450,000 Active 71 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $450,000 Active 70 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $450,000 Active 69 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $450,000 Active 68 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $450,000 Active 67 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $450,000 Active 66 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $450,000 Active 65 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $450,000 Active 64 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $450,000 Active 63 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $450,000 Active 62 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $450,000 Active 56 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $450,000 Active 55 DOM
17. 2026-09-03
    days on market $450,000 Active 54 DOM
18. 2026-08-31
    pricedays on market $450,000 Active 51 DOM
19. 2026-08-30
    days on market $499,000 Active 50 DOM
20. 2026-08-29
    days on market $499,000 Active 49 DOM
21. 2026-08-28
    days on market $499,000 Active 48 DOM
22. 2026-08-27
    days on market $499,000 Active 47 DOM
23. 2026-08-25
    days on market $499,000 Active 45 DOM
24. 2026-08-24
    days on market $499,000 Active 44 DOM
25. 2026-08-23
    days on market $499,000 Active 43 DOM
26. 2026-08-22
    days on market $499,000 Active 42 DOM
27. 2026-08-21
    days on market $499,000 Active 41 DOM
28. 2026-08-20
    days on market $499,000 Active 40 DOM
29. 2026-08-19
    days on market $499,000 Active 39 DOM
30. 2026-08-18
    days on market $499,000 Active 38 DOM
31. 2026-08-17
    days on market $499,000 Active 37 DOM
32. 2026-08-16
    days on market $499,000 Active 36 DOM
33. 2026-08-15
    days on market $499,000 Active 35 DOM
34. 2026-08-14
    days on market $499,000 Active 34 DOM
35. 2026-08-13
    days on market $499,000 Active 33 DOM
36. 2026-08-12
    days on market $499,000 Active 32 DOM
37. 2026-08-11
    days on market $499,000 Active 31 DOM
38. 2026-08-10
    days on market $499,000 Active 30 DOM
39. 2026-08-09
    days on market $499,000 Active 29 DOM
40. 2026-08-08
    days on market $499,000 Active 28 DOM
41. 2026-08-07
    days on market $499,000 Active 27 DOM
42. 2026-08-06
    days on market $499,000 Active 26 DOM
43. 2026-08-05
    days on market $499,000 Active 25 DOM
44. 2026-08-04
    days on market $499,000 Active 24 DOM
45. 2026-08-03
    days on market $499,000 Active 23 DOM
46. 2026-07-31
    days on market $499,000 Active 20 DOM
47. 2026-07-30
    pricedays on market $499,000 Active 19 DOM
48. 2026-07-29
    days on market $515,000 Active 18 DOM
49. 2026-07-27
    days on market $515,000 Active 16 DOM
50. 2026-07-25
    days on market $515,000 Active 14 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $46,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,927
• − Property taxes: −$6,675
• − Insurance: −$2,225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,744
• − Management: −$3,744
• − Depreciation: −$12,945
• Taxable loss: −$7,460
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,790
• After-tax cash flow: $1,859/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $10,315–$30,945 screening

This well-maintained condo in Steelwood Community offers modern amenities and a great atmosphere. It is ready for a new owner to move in.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace carpet in bedrooms — Carpet can be outdated and should be replaced for a fresh look ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Smart home devices can increase convenience and property value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 34/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Loxley Elementary School F AL #288/627 Nat'l #22,764/41,679 Middle Central Baldwin Middle School F AL #101/257 Nat'l #8,059/14,009 High Robertsdale High School F AL #53/305 Nat'l #10,121/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baldwin County
• NCES district ID: 0100270
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $50,677
• Composite: 38.61/100
• National rank: #4157
• State rank: #18 of 129 in AL

C Composite livability gradescore 66/100

Livability — Loxley

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #95
• US rank: #11346

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime D Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Loxley, AL
• County: Baldwin · 248,264 people
• Metro: Daphne-Fairhope-Foley, AL
• Population (ZIP): 12,915
• Household income: $68,625
• Rent vs Own: 21.2% rent · 78.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1% of renters

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Population outlook (Baldwin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,264 people
• By 2030: 270,315 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 312,967 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 352,262 · +41.9%
• By 2075: 438,841 · +76.8%
• By 2100: 487,736 · +96.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Black 15% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Baldwin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.2) · D 20.5% · R 78.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.7pp toward R · 2008: -51.5pp · 2024: -58.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.2 2020: R+53.8 2016: R+57.8 2012: R+55.8 2008: R+51.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.18%
• Current HPI: 291.8584
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Monthly association fee of $600Association covers management, common area insurance, grounds maintenance, reserve funds and common area taxesTransfer fees applyNo listed community amenities

Exterior

• Parking: Single covered, deeded garage spaceOn-street parking availableOpen parking available
• Utilities: Electric service by Baldwin EMCSewer service by Baldwin County Sewer ServiceLoxley utilities
• Home design: Condominium, attached corner unitOne-level livingCovered porch/screened porch; rear porchLakefront view of Steelwood Lake
• Construction: Wood siding and wood frame constructionSlab foundationBuilt with assessor-recorded building area of 2,063
• Exterior features: Termite contractCovered, screened rear porch

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherElectric rangeMicrowaveRefrigerator with ice makerIce makerWine cooler
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on main level with walk-in closet and balcony/patioBedroom 2: approximately 14 x 12Bedroom 3: approximately 13 x 13
• Flooring: CarpetTileWood
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathroomsPrimary bathroom with double vanity, jetted tub, separate shower and private water closet
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating
• Interior features: Ceiling fansEn-suite bathroomStorage2 fireplaces (living room and outside)
• Laundry & utility: WasherDryerWasher/dryer stacked

Price history

+33.1% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-07-06 Listed $515,000 BCAR
• 2026-03-11 Listed $525,000 BCAR
• 2025-02-11 Price Changed $424,900 BCAR
• 2025-02-06 Price Changed $425,000 BCAR
• 2025-02-06 Listed $350,000 BCAR
• 2022-05-11 Sold (MLS) $345,000 BCAR
• 2022-04-05 Pending — BCAR
• 2021-09-01 Listed $387,000 BCAR