1012 N Willow St · Trenton, NJ 08618

$199,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,628 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 299 Days on market

Built 1901 2,500 sqft lot Est $311k · 36% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.4/10.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Corporate Owned; 100% as is sale; Trenton C of O, termite cert, any/all certs are buyers responsibility; 1st floor plan has been altered; easy to show; vacant; comb lockbox; ramp/wheelchair access at rear door; 1st flr full bath, kitchen converted to BR, kitchen moved to DR;

Key facts

• 2,500 sq ft lot
• Built 1901
• Listed 299 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: On-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Natural gas service
• Home design: Detached property; Ownership is fee simple
• Construction: Frame construction; Brick/mortar foundation
• Exterior features: Lot dimensions approximately 25 x 100

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the upper level
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the upper level; One half bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Natural gas hot water
• Interior features: Full basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $461 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $176k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.1% vs local median 6.3% in Trenton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#133 in NJ, #3,533 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, employment F.
• Trenton Public School District (urban): math 2% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #471 of 472 in NJ (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 144 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,256 units permitted in Mercer County in 2024 (1,303 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,351/mo this rent would consume 56% of the median local household income ($50k/yr) (locally 2116% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mercer County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 299 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 24y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $72k; list at $200k implies a 178% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1901 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $175,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 299 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1901 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.88%
• DSCR: 1.44
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $310,948
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2 Barbara St	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,664 (+2%)	4mo	$190,000	$114	63
54 Kelsey Ave	0.52mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,581 (-3%)	4mo	$166,500	$105	61
625 Indiana Ave	0.54mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,696 (+4%)	5mo	$320,000	$189	59
491 Pennington Ave	0.59mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,694 (+4%)	3mo	$289,000	$171	58
42 E Paul Ave	0.19mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,443 (-11%)	11mo	$275,000	$191	58
132 Robbins Ave	0.43mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,542 (-5%)	15mo	$370,000	$240	51
130 Old Rose St	0.49mi	3/1.0	1,740 (+7%)	24mo	$95,000	$55	44
118 Hazel	0.46mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,399 (-14%)	8mo	$340,000	$243	42
801 Spruce St	0.68mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,509 (-7%)	10mo	$310,000	$205	40
224 Hazelhurst Ave	0.72mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,530 (-6%)	11mo	$410,000	$268	40
417 N Montgomery St	0.68mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,401 (-14%)	2mo	$250,000	$178	36
1214 Prospect St	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,448 (-11%)	23mo	$335,000	$231	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.6% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.93×
• Total profit: $-3,949
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.55×
• Total profit: $30,687
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08618

• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 144
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,351 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$265 /mo · $3,181/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$494
• Net cashflow: $461

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,768

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 27 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
130 W Ingham Ave Trenton, NJ	4.0	1.0	1126	$2,000	$1.78	13d	1	0.26mi
24 New Trent St Trenton, NJ	3.0	2.0	1336	$2,350	$1.76	13d	1	0.28mi
1314 Princeton Ave Trenton, NJ	4.0	1.0	1092	$2,400	$2.20	13d	1	0.37mi
134 Old Rose St Trenton, NJ	4.0	2.0	1212	$2,300	$1.90	21d	1	0.53mi
1100 Prospect St Unit 1 Ewing Township, NJ	3.0	1.0	1100	$2,000	$1.82	21d	1	0.56mi
331 Ellis Ave Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	1190	$2,275	$1.91	21d	1	0.62mi
21 Bellevue Ave Trenton, NJ	3.0	2.0	1740	$2,400	$1.38	43d	1	0.81mi
34 Southard St #2 Trenton, NJ	2.0	2.0	1808	$2,150	$1.19	21d	1	0.82mi
8 Belvidere St Trenton, NJ	2.0	1.0	1260	$1,900	$1.51	21d	1	0.84mi
73 Bellevue Ave Trenton, NJ	4.0	2.0	1950	$2,400	$1.23	13d	1	0.85mi
319 Rutherford Ave Trenton, NJ	4.0	2.0	1100	$2,200	$2.00	21d	1	0.85mi
311 Calhoun St Trenton, NJ	4.0	1.0	1516	$2,400	$1.58	43d	1	0.94mi
1040 Indiana Ave Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	1232	$2,950	$2.39	13d	1	0.97mi
307 Spring St Unit 1 Trenton, NJ	2.0	1.0	1677	$2,000	$1.19	21d	1	1.07mi
307 Spring St Unit 2 Trenton, NJ	2.0	1.0	1677	$1,750	$1.04	21d	1	1.07mi
307 Spring St Unit 3 Trenton, NJ	2.0	1.0	1677	$1,800	$1.07	21d	1	1.07mi
311 Spring St Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	1200	$2,200	$1.83	13d	1	1.08mi
186 Passaic St Trenton, NJ	3.0	2.0	1064	$2,400	$2.26	4d	1	1.08mi
600 Artisan St Trenton, NJ	3.0	2.0	1392	$2,650	$1.90	13d	3	1.15mi
600 Artisan St Unit 126 Trenton, NJ	3.0	2.0	1392	$2,650	$1.90	20d	1	1.15mi
234 Walnut Ave Trenton, NJ	4.0	1.0	1480	$2,200	$1.49	21d	1	1.15mi
105 Walnut Ave Unit 1 Trenton, NJ	2.0	1.0	1200	$2,000	$1.67	21d	1	1.16mi
73 Oak Ln #2 Trenton, NJ	4.0	1.0	1886	$2,300	$1.22	13d	1	1.26mi
92 Pennwood Dr Ewing, NJ	4.0	3.0	1702	$3,850	$2.26	13d	1	1.28mi
20 N Overbrook Ave Unit B Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	1518	$2,300	$1.52	13d	1	1.40mi
239 Ardmore Ave Trenton, NJ	4.0	2.0	1665	$2,750	$1.65	21d	1	1.45mi
219 Woodlawn Ave Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	1456	$2,355	$1.62	13d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,900 Active 299 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,900 Active 298 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,900 Active 297 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,900 Active 296 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $199,900 Active 294 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $199,900 Active 291 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,900 Active 290 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,900 Active 289 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $199,900 Active 288 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,900 Active 284 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,900 Active 283 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,900 Active 282 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,900 Active 281 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $199,900 Active 280 DOM
15. 2026-04-21
    price $199,900
16. 2025-08-24
    listed $215,000 Active
17. 2025-08-15
    historical $215,000
18. 2004-04-27
    soldstatus $72,000
19. 2002-10-15
    soldstatus $24,900 275-char remark

    Show marketing remark (275 chars)

    Corporate Owned; 100% as is sale; Trenton C of O, termite cert, any/all certs are buyers responsibility; 1st floor plan has been altered; easy to show; vacant; comb lockbox; ramp/wheelchair access at rear door; 1st flr full bath, kitchen converted to BR, kitchen moved to DR;

20. 2002-09-23
    historical 275-char remark

    Show marketing remark (275 chars)

    Corporate Owned; 100% as is sale; Trenton C of O, termite cert, any/all certs are buyers responsibility; 1st floor plan has been altered; easy to show; vacant; comb lockbox; ramp/wheelchair access at rear door; 1st flr full bath, kitchen converted to BR, kitchen moved to DR;

21. 2002-08-02
    listed $24,900 275-char remark

    Show marketing remark (275 chars)

    Corporate Owned; 100% as is sale; Trenton C of O, termite cert, any/all certs are buyers responsibility; 1st floor plan has been altered; easy to show; vacant; comb lockbox; ramp/wheelchair access at rear door; 1st flr full bath, kitchen converted to BR, kitchen moved to DR;

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,181 · $265/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,079 · $340/mo
• Expected delta: +$898/yr (+$75/mo · 28.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,212
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$3,181
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,257
• − Management: −$2,257
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable income: $2,506
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$601
• After-tax cash flow: $4,927/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Trenton Public School District
• NCES district ID: 3416290
• Math proficiency: 2% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $35,078
• Composite: 7.31/100
• National rank: #9956
• State rank: #471 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Trenton

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #133
• US rank: #3533

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B+ Crime F Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Trenton, NJ
• County: Mercer County · 327,655 people
• City population: 177,819
• Metro: Trenton-Princeton, NJ
• Population (ZIP): 35,634
• Household income: $50,390
• Rent vs Own: 54.2% rent · 45.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2116.0

Population outlook (Mercer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 381,395 people
• By 2030: 384,640 · +0.9%
• By 2040: 391,431 · +2.6%
• By 2050: 397,845 · +4.3%
• By 2075: 417,281 · +9.4%
• By 2100: 420,327 · +10.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 59% White 19% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 7% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 6% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Hispanic 1% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 3% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Mercer

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+33.9) · D 65.9% · R 32.0% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.2pp toward R · 2008: 36.1pp · 2024: 33.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+33.9 2020: D+40.0 2016: D+36.2 2012: D+36.8 2008: D+36.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -309.54%
• Current HPI: 288.6841
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• Metro: Trenton-Princeton, NJ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+702.8% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $199,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-08-24 Listed $215,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-08-15 Coming Soon $215,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2004-04-27 Sold (Public Records) $72,000 Public Records
• 2002-10-15 Sold (MLS) $24,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2002-09-23 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2002-08-02 Listed $24,900 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,181 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.