900 Cottage Rd · Carthage, TX 75633

$119,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,316 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 66 Days on market

Built 1954 0.28 ac lot ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Four-bedroom, two-bath home full of potential and ready for your personal touch. Featuring hardwood floors and a nice shady yard. This property offers a great foundation for renovation or investment. Conveniently located near hospitals, shopping, and everyday amenities, this home combines opportunity with location. Bring your vision and make it your own!

Key facts

• Shady yard
• Great foundation
• Hardwood floors

Tags

• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• SHADY YARD
• GREAT FOUNDATION
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $146 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $113k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#258 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, employment D+, crime F.
• Carthage ISD (town): math 41% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #364 of 826 in TX (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 140 active listings in the ZIP; 6 units permitted in Panola County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $829 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Panola County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($113k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 70% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $112,706 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.23%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-10,106
• Equity at exit: $17,877

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.10×
• Total profit: $3,242
• Equity at exit: $10,367

Cash invested: $33,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75633

• Home prices YoY: -27.3%
• Active inventory: 140
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,223 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$141 /mo · $1,697/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$257
• Net cashflow: $146

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,038

Max offer price $119,900

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,975
• Closing costs: $3,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $119,900 Active 66 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $119,900 Active 65 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $119,900 Active 64 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,900 Active 63 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $119,900 Active 61 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $119,900 Active 60 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $119,900 Active 57 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $119,900 Active 56 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $119,900 Active 55 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $119,900 Active 54 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $119,900 Active 51 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $119,900 Active 50 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $119,900 Active 49 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,900 Active 48 DOM
15. 2026-05-18
    price $119,900 356-char remark

    Show marketing remark (356 chars)

    Four-bedroom, two-bath home full of potential and ready for your personal touch. Featuring hardwood floors and a nice shady yard. This property offers a great foundation for renovation or investment. Conveniently located near hospitals, shopping, and everyday amenities, this home combines opportunity with location. Bring your vision and make it your own!

16. 2026-04-13
    listed $129,900 Active 356-char remark

    Show marketing remark (356 chars)

    Four-bedroom, two-bath home full of potential and ready for your personal touch. Featuring hardwood floors and a nice shady yard. This property offers a great foundation for renovation or investment. Conveniently located near hospitals, shopping, and everyday amenities, this home combines opportunity with location. Bring your vision and make it your own!

17. 1998-11-04
    soldstatus
18. 1989-06-06
    soldstatus
19. 1989-03-22
    soldstatus
20. 1984-05-14
    soldstatus
21. 1978-08-29
    soldstatus
22. 1978-08-28
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,697 · $141/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,194 · $183/mo
• Expected delta: +$497/yr (+$41/mo · 29.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 70% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,678
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,716
• − Property taxes: −$1,697
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,174
• − Management: −$1,174
• − Depreciation: −$3,488
• Taxable loss: −$171
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$41
• After-tax cash flow: $1,795/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carthage ISD
• NCES district ID: 4813110
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $48,546
• Composite: 35.19/100
• National rank: #4997
• State rank: #364 of 826 in TX

Livability — Carthage

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #258
• US rank: #6081

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carthage, TX
• Population (ZIP): 12,999

Population outlook (Panola County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 23,273 people
• By 2030: 22,845 · -1.8%
• By 2040: 21,652 · -7.0%
• By 2050: 20,107 · -13.6%
• By 2075: 15,709 · -32.5%
• By 2100: 11,013 · -52.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Two or more races 15% Hispanic / Latino 14% Black 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Serbian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 11% Vietnamese 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Panola

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.4) · D 16.7% · R 83.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.5pp toward R · 2008: -48.9pp · 2024: -66.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.4 2020: R+63.5 2016: R+63.5 2012: R+56.1 2008: R+48.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -60.73%
• Current HPI: 162.0275
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-7.7% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $119,900 LAAR
• 2026-04-13 Listed $129,900 LAAR
• 1998-11-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1989-06-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1989-03-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1984-05-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1978-08-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1978-08-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,697 · +6.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.