259 Burgandy Ln · Doe Valley, KY 40117

$260,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,904 sqft · Other · 22 Days on market

Built 2020 1.38 ac lot ↓ 9% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• Appreciation +7.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0

Key facts

• 1.38 acre lot
• Built 2020
• Listed 22 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $260k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-302 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $207k (20.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $164k (36.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $164k (36.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 2.9% in Doe Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#169 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Meade County (rural): math 41% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #21 of 165 in KY (top 13%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 16 active listings in the ZIP; 124 units permitted in Meade County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $14k appreciation (5.3% local appreciation)).
• Meade County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($256k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $164,113 (36.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.97%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 13.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.26% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.61×
• Total profit: $44,545
• Equity at exit: $151,517

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.05×
• Total profit: $149,352
• Equity at exit: $265,020

Cash invested: $72,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40117

• Home prices YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 16
• Price-to-rent: 13.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,641 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax from tax record: −$126 /mo · $1,516/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$345
• Net cashflow: $-302

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,023

Max offer price $206,713

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-154	-5% $-228	+0% $-302	+5% $-375	+10% $-449
Rent	-10% $-431	-5% $-366	+0% $-302	+5% $-237	+10% $-172
Rate	-1.0pp $-171	-0.5pp $-236	base $-302	+0.5pp $-369	+1.0pp $-438

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $65,000
• Closing costs: $7,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2024-09-27
   status Pending
2. 2024-09-16
   price $260,000
3. 2024-09-04
   listed $285,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,516 · $126/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,236 · $186/mo
• Expected delta: +$720/yr (+$60/mo · 47.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,694
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,564
• − Property taxes: −$1,516
• − Insurance: −$1,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,575
• − Management: −$1,575
• − Depreciation: −$7,564
• Taxable loss: −$8,401
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,016
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,603/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Meade County
• NCES district ID: 2104050
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $49,628
• Composite: 38.17/100
• National rank: #4265
• State rank: #21 of 165 in KY

Livability — Doe Valley

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #8518

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,089

Population outlook (Meade County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 26,977 people
• By 2030: 26,162 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 24,029 · -10.9%
• By 2050: 21,658 · -19.7%
• By 2075: 16,994 · -37.0%
• By 2100: 15,586 · -42.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Black 4% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1% Spanish 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Meade

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.1) · D 23.2% · R 75.3% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.1pp toward R · 2008: -20.9pp · 2024: -52.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.1 2020: R+46.4 2016: R+46.1 2012: R+22.8 2008: R+20.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.26%
• Current HPI: 233.0216
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

-8.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2024-09-27 Pending — Metro Search MLS
• 2024-09-16 Price Changed $260,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2024-09-04 Listed $285,500 Metro Search MLS

Property tax history

-1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,516 · -1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.