Is 24762 Zinnia Blossom Dr in Montgomery, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it F with a 4.2% cap rate and $-621/mo modeled cash flow at a $316,900 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 24762 Zinnia Blossom Dr?

The modeled cap rate is 4.2% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $2,364/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

🏗️ New Construction

F Composite 32.3

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +7.5/15.0
Cash flow +6.3/30.0
Schools +6.0/10.0
Condition / age +4.0/5.0
Livability +3.5/5.0
Rent growth +2.6/5.0
1% rule +1.7/10.0
DSCR +0.6/10.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$316,900

24762 Zinnia Blossom Dr · Montgomery, TX 77316

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,641 sqft · Land · 85 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 7,472 sqft lot 2-car garage $46/mo HOA · 2% of rent

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

The Sheldon is ideal for large households! The front porch leads to the foyer that opens up to the spacious study, perfect for working from home or at-home learning. The island kitchen offers great counterspace and overlooks the dining area and living room. The primary bedroom is located downstairs and features a walk-in shower and huge walk-in closet. The second floor is where you'll find the secondary bedrooms, a large game room and storage space! Covered patio included.

Key facts

Huge walk-in closet
Island kitchen
Front porch

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $317k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-621 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $264k (16.8% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $236k (25.4% below list).
Recommended offer: $236k (25.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Cap rate 4.2% vs local median 2.5% in Montgomery — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

Location reads 70/100 on livability (#372 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
Montgomery ISD (rural): math 63% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #49 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Lone Star El (math 57% / reading 61%, grade B-, #455 of 4,322 statewide, top 11%, 766 students, 16% FRL); Montgomery J H (math 68% / reading 54%, grade B+, #145 of 1,662 statewide, top 9%, 1,045 students, 30% FRL); Lake Creek H S (math 53% / reading 68%, grade C+, #268 of 1,632 statewide, top 17%, 1,649 students, 23% FRL) — zoned schools at 23% FRL track the district average.
Market conditions: Rents flat; 2717 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 85 days — a 6% lower offer ($298k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $236,353 (25.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 85 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.67% ✗
Cap rate: 4.18%
Cash-on-cash: -7.54%
DSCR: 0.66
GRM: 12.5

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $353,459
List price: $316,900
Delta: -10.34%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10289 Crescent Dr	0.34mi	4/2.5	2,376 (-10%)	4mo	$369,900	$156	64
4034 Emmett Dr	1.16mi	4/2.5	2,755 (+4%)	14mo	$849,999	$309	46
8250 Cavell Ct	1.01mi	4/3.5	2,597 (-2%)	16mo	$699,900	$270	45
8319 Monarch Ct	1.05mi	4/3.5	3,000 (+14%)	0mo	$815,000	$272	38
9960 N Lake Vw	0.56mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,154 (-18%)	22mo	$349,000	$162	23
21367 Monarch Dr	1.04mi	4/3.5	3,274 (+24%)	18mo	$824,700	$252	21
4002 Moody Dr	1.21mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,145 (-19%)	14mo	$649,900	$303	19
21869 Martin Rd	1.21mi	5/3.0 (+1)	3,120 (+18%)	31mo	$400,000	$128	13

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.4% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -32.4%
Equity multiple: -0.04×
Total profit: $-102,821
Equity at exit: $52,702

10-year hold

IRR: -56.6%
Equity multiple: -0.65×
Total profit: $-163,720
Equity at exit: $30,561

Cash invested: $98,968 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77316

Home prices YoY: -10.7%
Rents YoY: 0.4%
Active inventory: 2717
Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $2,364 medium interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,854
Tax est. 1.5%: −$442 /mo · $5,302/yr
Insurance: −$147
HOA: −$46
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$496
Net cashflow: $-621

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,150

Max offer price $263,529

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-377	-5% $-499	+0% $-621	+5% $-744	+10% $-866
Rent	-10% $-808	-5% $-715	+0% $-621	+5% $-528	+10% $-435
Rate	-1.0pp $-443	-0.5pp $-532	base $-621	+0.5pp $-713	+1.0pp $-806

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $88,365
Closing costs: $10,604
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Property features AI

Finance

HOA & community: Community managed by InframarkAnnual association fee of $550Community pool

Exterior

Parking: Attached 2-car garage
Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
Home design: Residential propertyNew construction (under construction)Slab foundationComposition roof
Construction: Built in 2026Brick and cement siding construction
Exterior features: DeckPorchPatioPrivate yardSubdivision lot

Interior

Kitchen: DishwasherGas ovenMicrowave
Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floorAdditional bedrooms on second floorTotal of 4 bedrooms plus office/game room (6 total rooms)
Flooring: CarpetPlankTileVinyl
Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas)Central electric air conditioning
Interior features: Kitchen islandKitchen/family room comboPrimary bathroomPantryQuartz countertopsTub with showerCeiling fansProgrammable thermostatLow emissivity windowsEnergy Star qualified appliancesTankless water heater
Laundry & utility: Gas dryer hookup

Listing history 50 events

2026-08-08

days on market $316,900 Active 85 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $316,900 Active 83 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $316,900 Active 82 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $316,900 Active 81 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $316,900 Active 80 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $316,900 Active 77 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $316,900 Active 75 DOM
2026-07-28

days on market $316,900 Active 74 DOM
2026-07-26

days on market $316,900 Active 72 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $316,900 Active 70 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $316,900 Active 69 DOM
2026-07-22

days on market $316,900 Active 68 DOM
2026-07-21

days on market $316,900 Active 67 DOM
2026-07-20

days on market $316,900 Active 66 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $316,900 Active 64 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $316,900 Active 63 DOM
2026-07-16

days on market $316,900 Active 62 DOM
2026-07-15

days on market $316,900 Active 61 DOM
2026-07-14

days on market $316,900 Active 60 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $316,900 Active 59 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $316,900 Active 58 DOM
2026-07-11

days on market $316,900 Active 57 DOM
2026-07-10

days on market $316,900 Active 56 DOM
2026-07-09

days on market $316,900 Active 55 DOM
2026-07-07

days on market $316,900 Active 53 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $316,900 Active 52 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $316,900 Active 51 DOM
2026-07-05

days on market $316,900 Active 50 DOM
2026-07-03

days on market $316,900 Active 49 DOM
2026-07-02

pricedays on market $316,900 Active 48 DOM
2026-07-01

days on market $321,400 Active 47 DOM
2026-06-30

days on market $321,400 Active 46 DOM
2026-06-29

days on market $321,400 Active 45 DOM
2026-06-28

days on market $321,400 Active 44 DOM
2026-06-27

pricedays on market $321,400 Active 43 DOM
2026-06-26

days on market $316,900 Active 42 DOM
2026-06-24

days on market $316,900 Active 40 DOM
2026-06-22

days on market $316,900 Active 38 DOM
2026-06-21

days on market $316,900 Active 37 DOM
2026-06-18

days on market $316,900 Active 34 DOM
2026-06-17

days on market $316,900 Active 33 DOM
2026-06-16

days on market $316,900 Active 32 DOM
2026-06-15

days on market $316,900 Active 31 DOM
2026-06-13

days on market $316,900 Active 29 DOM
2026-06-13

days on market $316,900 Active 28 DOM
2026-06-09

days on market $316,900 Active 25 DOM
2026-06-08

days on market $316,900 Active 24 DOM
2026-06-07

days on market $316,900 Active 23 DOM
2026-06-04

days on market $316,900 Active 20 DOM
2026-06-03

days on market $316,900 Active 19 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $28,362
− Mortgage interest: −$19,799
− Property taxes: −$5,302
− Insurance: −$1,767
− Repairs & maintenance: −$2,269
− Management: −$2,269
− HOA: −$552
− Depreciation: −$10,282
Taxable loss: −$13,878

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,331
After-tax cash flow: $-4,127/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in good condition with a modern kitchen and well-maintained exterior. It's move-in ready and would benefit from a fresh coat of paint on the exterior and a new ceiling fan in the living room to enhance its appeal.

Value-add opportunities

Resale Paint the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑
Rental Replace the ceiling fan in the living room — A new ceiling fan can improve comfort and attract renters. ↑

C Composite school gradezoned avg 60/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Lone Star El B- TX #455/4,322 Nat'l #8,048/41,679 Middle Montgomery J H B+ TX #145/1,662 Nat'l #1,667/14,009 High Lake Creek H S C+ TX #268/1,632 Nat'l #3,510/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Montgomery ISD
NCES district ID: 4831260
Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -3.00%
Median HH income: $75,596
Composite: 53.55/100
National rank: #1445
State rank: #49 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 70/100

Livability — Montgomery

Score: 70/100
State rank: #372
US rank: #7894

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County: Montgomery County · 713,896 people
City population: 67,277
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
Population (ZIP): 34,694
Household income: $124,055
Rent vs Own: 10.9% rent · 89.1% own
Severe rent burden: 6% of renters

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 713,896 people
By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Black 1% Asian 1%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Slovak 3% Romanian 3%
Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -31.44%
Current HPI: 262.6973
Rent YoY: ▲ 0.40%
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

2026-05-15 Listed $316,900 HARMLS
2026-04-29 Listed $316,900 Zillow

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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