3414 Humphrey St · Asbury Lake, FL 32043

$299,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,622 sqft · Land · 21 Days on market

Built 2026 6,534 sqft lot $52/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Sample Image The Ormewood home plan is a stylish and functional single-story residence, offering 1,622 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space. Featuring three spacious bedrooms and two bathrooms, this home is well-suited for both comfort and convenience. The open-concept layout seamlessly connects the kitchen, dining, and living areas, creating a welcoming environment for daily living and entertaining. High-quality finishes and modern design elements throughout enhance both the aesthetic appeal and practicality of the home. With two garage spaces, the Ormewood plan provides ample parking and storage solutions, making it an ideal choice for contemporary living.

Key facts

• 6,534 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association (First Service Residential); Annual association fee; CDD fee applies; Community sidewalks

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with garage door opener
• Security: Carbon monoxide detector(s); Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public sewer; Water available; Electricity available and connected; Cable available and connected; Sewer available and connected
• Home design: Single family residence; Two levels; Faces northeast; Used for residential and recreational purposes
• Construction: Fiber cement and frame construction; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Cleared lot; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Electric range; Microwave; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the first level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Entrance foyer; Kitchen island; Open floorplan; Pantry; Primary bathroom with shower (no tub); Split bedrooms; Walk-in closets; 6 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Electric dryer hookup; Laundry located on upper level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-39 ($-473/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $293k (2.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $242k (19.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $242k (19.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.4% in Asbury Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#776 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Clay (suburban): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #14 of 73 in FL (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Shadowlawn Elementary School (math 70% / reading 63%, grade B+, #473 of 2,144 statewide, top 23%, 735 students, 49% FRL); Lake Asbury Junior High School (math 65% / reading 58%, grade B+, #124 of 571 statewide, top 22%, 1,037 students, 41% FRL); Clay High School (math 37% / reading 53%, grade D-, #228 of 667 statewide, top 35%, 1,666 students, 43% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 885 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,876 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clay County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($295k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $242,341 (19.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.56%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.46% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-57,199
• Equity at exit: $44,729

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.09×
• Total profit: $-76,746
• Equity at exit: $25,938

Cash invested: $83,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32043

• Home prices YoY: -26.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 885
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,423 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$204 /mo · $2,445/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$52
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$509
• Net cashflow: $-39

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,473

Max offer price $293,027

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $130	-5% $45	+0% $-39	+5% $-124	+10% $-209
Rent	-10% $-231	-5% $-135	+0% $-39	+5% $56	+10% $152
Rate	-1.0pp $112	-0.5pp $37	base $-39	+0.5pp $-117	+1.0pp $-196

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,998
• Closing costs: $9,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3471 Humphrey St Green Cove Springs, FL	4.0	2.0	1797	$2,200	$1.22	24d	1	0.01mi
3445 Shelley Dr Green Cove Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1430	$1,930	$1.35	2d	1	1.36mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $52 · $624/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-20
   listed $299,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,445 · $204/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,490 · $207/mo
• Expected delta: +$45/yr (+$4/mo · 1.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,081
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,804
• − Property taxes: −$2,445
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,326
• − Management: −$2,326
• − HOA: −$624
• − Depreciation: −$8,727
• Taxable loss: −$5,672
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,361
• After-tax cash flow: $888/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clay
• NCES district ID: 1200300
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $59,379
• Composite: 50.73/100
• National rank: #1815
• State rank: #14 of 73 in FL

Livability — Asbury Lake

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #776
• US rank: #17575

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A- Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Clay County · 208,450 people
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 34,562
• Household income: $84,145
• Rent vs Own: 21.3% rent · 78.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 449.0

Population outlook (Clay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 230,495 people
• By 2030: 242,427 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 262,244 · +13.8%
• By 2050: 275,148 · +19.4%
• By 2075: 295,397 · +28.2%
• By 2100: 287,592 · +24.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Black 10% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.3) · D 29.9% · R 69.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.6pp toward D · 2008: -42.8pp · 2024: -39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.3 2020: R+37.1 2016: R+44.3 2012: R+45.8 2008: R+42.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -107.34%
• Current HPI: 301.3212
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.46%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Pending — realMLS
• 2026-04-20 Listed $299,990 realMLS