5277 Hwy 49 N. #205 · Mariposa, CA 95338

$168,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 786 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 23 Days on market

Built 1984 1,111 ac lot $164/mo HOA · 10% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Home is in reasonable condition. It has a nice front yard with a very large Globe Willow tree.

Key facts

• Propane stove
• Walk in closets
• Convenient location

Tags

• GOOD SIZE LIVING ROOM
• PROPANE STOVE
• SEPARATE DINING AREA
• WALK IN CLOSETS
• INDOOR LAUNDRY ROOM
• CONVENIENT LOCATION

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Community features include biking, hiking, fishing, mountainous and foothill surroundings
• HOA & community: Part of Idle Wheels association; Monthly association fee of $164; Association amenities: hiking trails, biking trails, pickleball; Senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking; Carport; 2 parking spaces (including 2 garage spaces)
• Utilities: Public sewer; District/public water
• Home design: Manufactured house; Single-story; Entry level: ground
• Construction: Composition roof; Raised foundation; Certified 433a
• Exterior features: Concrete patio; Patio; Front yard; Lawn; Has view; No pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cooktop; Dishwasher; Formica counters in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 2 main-level bedrooms; Walk-in closet
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Bathtub; Shower in tub; Walk-in shower; Formica counters in bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (furnace); Central cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fan; Separated eating area
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry in a dedicated room; Has laundry hookups

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $168k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $112 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $164k (2.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $164k (2.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 3.1% in Mariposa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#267 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, crime A-; Watch: schools C-, amenities C-, health & safety C-.
• Mariposa County Unified (rural): math 27% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #282 of 517 in CA (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 170 active listings in the ZIP; 89 units permitted in Mariposa County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mariposa County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($165k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $90k; list at $168k implies a 87% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $163,871 (2.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.85%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $349,770
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5174 Bullion St	0.60mi	2/1.0	741 (-6%)	11mo	$330,000	$445	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-20,066
• Equity at exit: $25,049

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.83×
• Total profit: $-8,151
• Equity at exit: $14,526

Cash invested: $47,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95338

• Active inventory: 170
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,639 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$881
• Tax from tax record: −$68 /mo · $814/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$164
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$344
• Net cashflow: $112

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,497

Max offer price $168,000

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $207	-5% $159	+0% $112	+5% $64	+10% $17
Rent	-10% $-18	-5% $47	+0% $112	+5% $177	+10% $241
Rate	-1.0pp $196	-0.5pp $155	base $112	+0.5pp $68	+1.0pp $24

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,000
• Closing costs: $5,040
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $164 · $1,968/yr

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $168,000 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $168,000 Active 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $168,000 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $168,000 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $168,000 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $168,000 Active 17 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $168,000 Active 15 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $168,000 Active 14 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $168,000 Active 12 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $168,000 Active 11 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $168,000 Active 10 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $168,000 Active 9 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $168,000 Active 6 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $168,000 Active 5 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $168,000 Active 4 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $168,000 Active 3 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $168,000 Active 2 DOM
18. 2026-05-29
    listed $168,000 Active
19. 2015-09-01
    soldstatus $90,000 94-char remark

    Show marketing remark (94 chars)

    Home is in reasonable condition. It has a nice front yard with a very large Globe Willow tree.

20. 2015-04-22
    listed $96,000 94-char remark

    Show marketing remark (94 chars)

    Home is in reasonable condition. It has a nice front yard with a very large Globe Willow tree.

21. 2015-04-20
    historical
22. 2015-04-17
    listed $96,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $814 · $68/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,277 · $106/mo
• Expected delta: +$463/yr (+$39/mo · 56.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 8 d/yr ≥100°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 36 unhealthy d/yr today · 45 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,665
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,411
• − Property taxes: −$814
• − Insurance: −$840
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,573
• − Management: −$1,573
• − HOA: −$1,968
• − Depreciation: −$4,887
• Taxable loss: −$1,401
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$336
• After-tax cash flow: $1,678/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mariposa County Unified
• NCES district ID: 0623940
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $48,669
• Composite: 29.75/100
• National rank: #6438
• State rank: #282 of 517 in CA

Livability — Mariposa

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #267
• US rank: #8987

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A- Employment F Housing B- Health & safety C- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mariposa, CA
• City population: 10,164
• Population (ZIP): 10,164

Population outlook (Mariposa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,956 people
• By 2030: 15,078 · -5.5%
• By 2040: 13,413 · -15.9%
• By 2050: 12,232 · -23.3%
• By 2075: 11,143 · -30.2%
• By 2100: 10,187 · -36.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 9% Native American 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Italian 4% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Mariposa

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.1% · R 59.1% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.6pp toward R · 2008: -12.4pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+18.1 2016: R+23.2 2012: R+17.4 2008: R+12.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -151.82%
• Current HPI: 140.3045
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+75.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $168,000 CRMLS
• 2015-09-01 Sold (MLS) $90,000 CRMLS
• 2015-04-22 Listed $96,000 CRMLS
• 2015-04-20 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2015-04-17 Listed $96,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

+17.1%/yr

Latest (2020): $814 · +3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.