118 Cainwalker Rd · Charleston, SC 29450

$552,860

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,718 sqft · SingleFamily

Built 2026 9,147 sqft lot Est $565k · at est. $75/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +8.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.3/30.0
• Appreciation +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Cainhoy Preserve by Ryan Homes, just 20 minutes to Mount Pleasant.

Key facts

• 9,147 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $553k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-743 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $445k (19.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $399k (27.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $399k (27.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 2.4% in Charleston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#22 in SC, #3,336 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, commute F, cost of living D-.
• Berkeley 01 (suburban): math 35% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #30 of 80 in SC (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Cainhoy Elementary (math 2% / reading 12%, grade F, #594 of 597 statewide, top 100%, 154 students, 100% FRL); Philip Simmons Middle (math 31% / reading 48%, grade F, #82 of 229 statewide, top 37%, 428 students, 35% FRL); Philip Simmons High (math 42% / reading 92%, grade B, #73 of 196 statewide, top 41%, 771 students, 21% FRL) — zoned schools at 52% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 69 active listings in the ZIP; 3,183 units permitted in Berkeley County in 2024 (580 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.1%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Berkeley County population projected at +48% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 98% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $399,089 (27.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.68%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.76%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $565,344
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
107 Royal Cainhoy Way	0.40mi	5/3.0	2,602 (-4%)	9mo	$504,890	$194	66
121 Royal Cainhoy Way	0.43mi	5/3.0	2,602 (-4%)	9mo	$474,690	$182	65
114 Royal Cainhoy Way	0.38mi	5/3.0	2,602 (-4%)	14mo	$509,850	$196	63
128 Royal Cainhoy Way	0.42mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,602 (-4%)	13mo	$527,940	$203	58
137 Royal Cainhoy Way	0.48mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,602 (-4%)	10mo	$540,457	$208	55
134 Royal Cainhoy Way	0.44mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,602 (-4%)	16mo	$498,190	$191	52
104 Royal Cainhoy Way	0.36mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,394 (-12%)	6mo	$524,990	$219	51
106 Royal Cainhoy Way	0.36mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,394 (-12%)	7mo	$499,890	$209	50
154 Royal Cainhoy Way	0.41mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,394 (-12%)	9mo	$453,687	$190	46
163 Royal Cainhoy Way	0.38mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,394 (-12%)	11mo	$534,890	$223	46
109 Royal Cainhoy Way	0.41mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,394 (-12%)	16mo	$497,140	$208	41
147 Royal Cainhoy Way	0.47mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,394 (-12%)	13mo	$499,615	$209	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.12% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-91,730
• Equity at exit: $130,375

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-98,306
• Equity at exit: $134,298

Cash invested: $154,801 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State South Carolina: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 29450

• Home prices YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 69
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,991 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,899
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$691 /mo · $8,293/yr
• Insurance: −$230
• HOA: −$75
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$838
• Net cashflow: $-743

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,931

Max offer price $445,363

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-361	-5% $-552	+0% $-743	+5% $-934	+10% $-1,125
Rent	-10% $-1,058	-5% $-901	+0% $-743	+5% $-585	+10% $-428
Rate	-1.0pp $-464	-0.5pp $-602	base $-743	+0.5pp $-886	+1.0pp $-1,032

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $138,215
• Closing costs: $16,586
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $75 · $900/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-02-09
   historical
2. 2026-02-09
   listed $552,860

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 98% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $47,891
• − Mortgage interest: −$30,969
• − Property taxes: −$8,293
• − Insurance: −$2,764
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,831
• − Management: −$3,831
• − HOA: −$900
• − Depreciation: −$16,083
• Taxable loss: −$18,781
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,507
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,407/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Berkeley 01
• NCES district ID: 4501170
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $52,724
• Composite: 35.95/100
• National rank: #4799
• State rank: #30 of 80 in SC

Livability — Charleston

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #22
• US rank: #3336

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living D- Crime D+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 200,573
• Population (ZIP): 3,124

Population outlook (Berkeley County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 254,184 people
• By 2030: 279,677 · +10.0%
• By 2040: 329,379 · +29.6%
• By 2050: 375,557 · +47.8%
• By 2075: 476,740 · +87.6%
• By 2100: 535,945 · +110.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 64% White 25% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 7% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Berkeley

• 2024 margin: R (+16.3) · D 41.1% · R 57.4% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.2pp toward R · 2008: -13.1pp · 2024: -16.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.3 2020: R+11.7 2016: R+17.4 2012: R+18.9 2008: R+13.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.12%
• Current HPI: 462.4619
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.51%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in SC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Packaging	1	$7B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-09 Listing Removed — Charleston Trident MLS
• 2026-02-09 Listed $552,860 Charleston Trident MLS