511 VT Route 25 · Topsham, VT 05076

$199,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,145 sqft · Other public records · 165 Days on market

Built 1930 4.00 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.0/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

A rare in-town fixer-upper with incredible potential, this 4-bedroom, 2-bath home sits on 4 acres just minutes from Barre and Montpelier. Filled with character, the property features original hardwood floors, a woodstove, pellet stove, and a charming tin ceiling in the kitchen waiting to be restored to its former beauty. The covered front porch adds classic New Englander appeal, while the attached barn/garage provides excellent storage or workshop space. Conveying in as-is condition, this estate property is ideal for investors, rehabbers, or a handy homeowner looking to build sweat equity. With its generous acreage, convenient location, and solid historic bones, this home is ready to be bro

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Tin ceiling
• Attached barn garage

Tags

• ORIGINAL HARDWOOD FLOORS
• WOODSTOVE
• PELLET STOVE
• TIN CEILING
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• ATTACHED BARN GARAGE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 1-car garage
• Utilities: Drilled well water; Septic system; 100 Amp electrical service; DSL internet available; Other utilities listed
• Home design: New Englander style; Existing structure; Built in 1930; Standing seam metal roof
• Construction: Wood frame construction; Concrete foundation
• Exterior features: Hilly lot; In-town location; Rural setting; Circular driveway with right-of-way access; Public road frontage (approx. 100')

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas range; Refrigerator; Freezer; Dishwasher not listed
• Flooring: Hardwood; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Oil heat; Pellet stove; Wood heat
• Interior features: 7 rooms; Concrete unfinished basement with interior access
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-99 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $181k (8.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $150k (24.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $150k (24.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Zoned schools: Waits River Valley Union School (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #96 of 192 statewide, top 57%, 263 students, 38% FRL).
• Market conditions: 11 active listings in the ZIP; 74 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (28 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (2.0% local appreciation)).
• Orange County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 165 days — a 12% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $130k; list at $199k implies a 54% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $149,723 (24.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 165 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.69%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.14%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.03% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.14×
• Total profit: $7,545
• Equity at exit: $78,778

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.87×
• Total profit: $48,748
• Equity at exit: $113,662

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Vermont: 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause in Burlington (2022); strong habitability.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 05076

• Home prices YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 11
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,497 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$156 /mo · $1,869/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$314
• Net cashflow: $-99

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,623

Max offer price $181,433

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $13	-5% $-43	+0% $-99	+5% $-156	+10% $-212
Rent	-10% $-218	-5% $-159	+0% $-99	+5% $-40	+10% $19
Rate	-1.0pp $1	-0.5pp $-49	base $-99	+0.5pp $-151	+1.0pp $-203

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $199,000 Active 165 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $199,000 Active 163 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,000 Active 162 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,000 Active 161 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,000 Active 160 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,000 Active 159 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $199,000 Active 157 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $199,000 Active 156 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,000 Active 153 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $199,000 Active 152 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,000 Active 151 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,000 Active 150 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $199,000 Active 147 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,000 Active 146 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,000 Active 145 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,000 Active 144 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,000 Active 143 DOM
18. 2026-01-07
    listed $199,000 Active
19. 2018-08-16
    soldstatus $129,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,869 · $156/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,825 · $235/mo
• Expected delta: +$956/yr (+$80/mo · 51.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥87°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,967
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$1,869
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,437
• − Management: −$1,437
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$4,708
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,130
• After-tax cash flow: $-63/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Topsham

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 531

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,186 people
• By 2030: 27,359 · -2.9%
• By 2040: 25,221 · -10.5%
• By 2050: 23,023 · -18.3%
• By 2075: 18,621 · -33.9%
• By 2100: 14,477 · -48.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 7% Lithuanian 5% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.2) · D 58.3% · R 38.1% · Other 3.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.1pp toward R · 2008: 31.3pp · 2024: 20.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.2 2020: D+24.1 2016: D+18.8 2012: D+32.1 2008: D+31.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.03%
• Current HPI: 94.3347
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+53.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-07 Listed $199,000 PrimeMLS
• 2018-08-16 Sold (Public Records) $129,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+16.7%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,869 · -0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.