The Darrington Townhome Plan · Kalispell, MT 59901

$429,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,395 sqft · SingleFamily · 81 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Cash flow +2.1/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 81 days

🏗️ New construction. The $429,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $562,801.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $430k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-25k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $265k (38.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $232k (46.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $232k (46.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#61 in MT) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, cost of living A, housing A-; Watch: crime C-, commute F, employment D-.
• Flathead H S (town): math 29% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #55 of 116 in MT (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: West Valley School (math 54% / reading 61%, grade C+, #51 of 293 statewide, top 17%, 424 students, 0% FRL); West Valley Middle School (math 48% / reading 61%, grade B-, #15 of 146 statewide, top 14%, 338 students, 0% FRL); Glacier High School (math 36% / reading 55%, grade D-, #31 of 132 statewide, top 23%, 1,475 students, 0% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 52% at this address vs 40% district-wide (+12 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Flathead H S average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 813 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 281 units permitted in Flathead County in 2024 (80 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($73k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $17k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Flathead County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 81 days — a 6% lower offer ($404k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $231,575 (46.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 81 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 46% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.41% ✗
• Cap rate: 1.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -15.69%
• DSCR: 0.30
• GRM: 20.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $562,801
• List price: $429,990
• Delta: -23.60%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
416 Needlegrass Ln Lot 13	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,408 (+1%)	4mo	$539,990	$384	91
357 Triple Creek Dr Lot 35	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,408 (+1%)	0mo	$512,476	$364	90
369 Triple Creek Dr Lot 33	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,408 (+1%)	2mo	$506,590	$360	90
150 Short Pine Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,430 (+2%)	2mo	$530,000	$371	86
424 Needlegrass Ln	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,235 (-12%)	2mo	$499,990	$405	76
400 Needlegrass Ln Lot 17	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,235 (-12%)	2mo	$496,322	$402	73
408 Needlegrass Ln	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,574 (+13%)	1mo	$559,990	$356	72
313 Triple Creek Dr Lot 42	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,574 (+13%)	3mo	$506,240	$322	67
78 Konley Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,532 (+10%)	2mo	$625,000	$408	65
610 Triple Creek Dr	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,232 (-12%)	3mo	$525,000	$426	59
117 Cyclone Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,280 (-8%)	3mo	$530,000	$414	57
38 Vanderbilt Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,264 (-9%)	3mo	$419,000	$331	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.41% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -47.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.42×
• Total profit: $-223,729
• Equity at exit: $83,915

10-year hold

• IRR: -93.8%
• Equity multiple: -1.34×
• Total profit: $-369,159
• Equity at exit: $48,661

Cash invested: $157,584 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Montana: 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; no rent control; preempted; rural-skewed market.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 19 active · 27 under contract
• Months of supply: 4.6 mo (22%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $475,725 ($333/sqft)
• Median days on market: 85 d
• This list price: 5% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +21.3% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 59901

• Rents YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 813
• Price-to-rent: 15.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,316 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,951
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$704 /mo · $8,442/yr
• Insurance: −$235
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$486
• Net cashflow: $-2,060

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,923

Max offer price $264,723

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,671	-5% $-1,865	+0% $-2,060	+5% $-2,254	+10% $-2,449
Rent	-10% $-2,243	-5% $-2,151	+0% $-2,060	+5% $-1,968	+10% $-1,877
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,777	-0.5pp $-1,917	base $-2,060	+0.5pp $-2,206	+1.0pp $-2,354

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $140,700
• Closing costs: $16,884
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18 Ford Way Unit A Kalispell, MT	2.0	1.0	900	$1,800	$2.00	2d	1	0.59mi
829 S Camas Ln Kalispell, MT	3.0	2.5	1268	$2,500	$1.97	2d	1	0.69mi
129 Bing Ct Kalispell, MT	3.0	2.5	1380	$2,100	$1.52	2d	1	1.20mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-25
   days on market $429,990 Active 81 DOM
2. 2026-08-24
   days on market $429,990 Active 80 DOM
3. 2026-08-23
   days on market $429,990 Active 79 DOM
4. 2026-08-22
   days on market $429,990 Active 78 DOM
5. 2026-08-21
   days on market $429,990 Active 77 DOM
6. 2026-08-20
   days on market $429,990 Active 76 DOM
7. 2026-08-19
   days on market $429,990 Active 75 DOM
8. 2026-08-18
   days on market $429,990 Active 74 DOM
9. 2026-08-17
   days on market $429,990 Active 73 DOM
10. 2026-08-16
    days on market $429,990 Active 72 DOM
11. 2026-08-15
    days on market $429,990 Active 71 DOM
12. 2026-08-14
    days on market $429,990 Active 70 DOM
13. 2026-08-13
    days on market $429,990 Active 69 DOM
14. 2026-08-11
    days on market $429,990 Active 68 DOM
15. 2026-08-10
    days on market $429,990 Active 67 DOM
16. 2026-08-09
    days on market $429,990 Active 66 DOM
17. 2026-08-08
    days on market $429,990 Active 65 DOM
18. 2026-08-07
    days on market $429,990 Active 64 DOM
19. 2026-08-06
    days on market $429,990 Active 63 DOM
20. 2026-08-05
    days on market $429,990 Active 62 DOM
21. 2026-08-04
    days on market $429,990 Active 61 DOM
22. 2026-08-03
    days on market $429,990 Active 60 DOM
23. 2026-07-31
    days on market $429,990 Active 57 DOM
24. 2026-07-30
    days on market $429,990 Active 56 DOM
25. 2026-07-30
    days on market $429,990 Active 55 DOM
26. 2026-07-27
    days on market $429,990 Active 54 DOM
27. 2026-07-25
    days on market $429,990 Active 52 DOM
28. 2026-07-24
    days on market $429,990 Active 51 DOM
29. 2026-07-23
    days on market $429,990 Active 50 DOM
30. 2026-07-22
    days on market $429,990 Active 49 DOM
31. 2026-07-21
    days on market $429,990 Active 48 DOM
32. 2026-07-18
    days on market $429,990 Active 45 DOM
33. 2026-07-16
    days on market $429,990 Active 43 DOM
34. 2026-07-16
    days on market $429,990 Active 42 DOM
35. 2026-07-13
    days on market $429,990 Active 41 DOM
36. 2026-07-12
    days on market $429,990 Active 40 DOM
37. 2026-07-11
    days on market $429,990 Active 39 DOM
38. 2026-07-10
    days on market $429,990 Active 38 DOM
39. 2026-07-09
    days on market $429,990 Active 37 DOM
40. 2026-07-08
    days on market $429,990 Active 36 DOM
41. 2026-07-03
    days on market $429,990 Active 35 DOM
42. 2026-07-02
    days on market $429,990 Active 34 DOM
43. 2026-06-23
    days on market $429,990 Active 30 DOM
44. 2026-06-21
    days on market $429,990 Active 29 DOM
45. 2026-06-19
    days on market $429,990 Active 27 DOM
46. 2026-06-18
    days on market $429,990 Active 26 DOM
47. 2026-06-17
    days on market $429,990 Active 25 DOM
48. 2026-06-16
    days on market $429,990 Active 24 DOM
49. 2026-06-15
    days on market $429,990 Active 23 DOM
50. 2026-06-14
    days on market $429,990 Active 21 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 13 unhealthy d/yr today · 16 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,789
• − Mortgage interest: −$31,526
• − Property taxes: −$8,442
• − Insurance: −$2,814
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,223
• − Management: −$2,223
• − Depreciation: −$16,372
• Taxable loss: −$35,811
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$8,595
• After-tax cash flow: $-16,125/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 20 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It is move-in ready and would benefit from some exterior painting and landscaping improvements to further enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can attract more buyers ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms — Modern flooring can improve the look and feel of the bathrooms ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 52/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary West Valley School C+ MT #51/293 Nat'l #8,415/41,679 Middle West Valley Middle School B- MT #15/146 Nat'l #2,564/14,009 High Glacier High School D- MT #31/132 Nat'l #6,744/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Flathead H S
• NCES district ID: 3015420
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $49,712
• Composite: 34.79/100
• National rank: #5115
• State rank: #55 of 116 in MT

B Composite livability gradescore 72/100

Livability — Kalispell

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #61
• US rank: #6399

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute F Cost of living A Crime C- Employment D- Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kalispell, MT
• County: Flathead County · 108,002 people
• City population: 63,161
• Metro: Kalispell, MT
• Population (ZIP): 63,161
• Household income: $72,523
• Rent vs Own: 30.0% rent · 70.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 7% of renters

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Population outlook (Flathead County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 108,002 people
• By 2030: 113,362 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 122,245 · +13.2%
• By 2050: 129,517 · +19.9%
• By 2075: 146,737 · +35.9%
• By 2100: 155,045 · +43.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 4% Native American 1% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 9% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 0%

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Political lean MEDSL · Flathead

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.8) · D 31.8% · R 65.5% · Other 2.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.2pp toward R · 2008: -21.6pp · 2024: -33.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.8 2020: R+29.9 2016: R+36.5 2012: R+33.4 2008: R+21.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -698.78%
• Current HPI: 225.6792
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• Metro: Kalispell, MT
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.41%
• F500 in state: 2

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology / Analytics	1	$2B