16 Clayton Dr · Clayton, DE 19938

$84,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,088 sqft · Manufactured public records · 156 Days on market

Built 2020 ↓ 6% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Located in the desired community of Clayton Court, this beautifully maintained home is now for sale! This two-bedroom, two-bathroom home features vinyl flooring throughout, a full appliance package including a built-in microwave and a washer and dryer. Located close to the Smyrna high school in the town of Clayton, the location provides easy access to all of the conveniences of the town of Smyrna, just minutes away from stores and doctors' offices. The community lot lease of $614 includes snow plowing. Applicants will need to be approved for the community lot lease prior to purchase. Financing is always available on lot lease! Schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• Vinyl flooring
• Washer and dryer
• Built-in microwave

Tags

• VINYL FLOORING
• FULL APPLIANCE PACKAGE
• BUILT-IN MICROWAVE
• WASHER AND DRYER
• CLOSE TO SMYRNA HIGH SCHOOL
• EASY ACCESS TO CONVENIENCES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $746 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $75k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.8% vs local median 1.9% in Clayton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#11 in DE) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Smyrna School District (rural): math 22% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #16 of 26 in DE (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 31 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,201 units permitted in Kent County in 2024 (116 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $587 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kent County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 156 days — a 12% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 63% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $74,712 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 156 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.86% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 37.66%
• DSCR: 2.68
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 33.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.42×
• Total profit: $33,728
• Equity at exit: $12,659

10-year hold

• IRR: 40.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.80×
• Total profit: $90,430
• Equity at exit: $7,341

Cash invested: $23,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 70 Landlord-Friendly
• State Delaware: 70 Landlord-Friendly · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Court of Common Pleas hears L&T; moderate-paced. No state rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 19938

• Home prices YoY: -26.8%
• Active inventory: 31
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,575 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$445
• Tax from tax record: −$18 /mo · $211/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$331
• Net cashflow: $746

Break-even live

Break-even rent $631

Max offer price $84,900

Occupancy floor 48%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $794	-5% $770	+0% $746	+5% $722	+10% $698
Rent	-10% $622	-5% $684	+0% $746	+5% $808	+10% $870
Rate	-1.0pp $789	-0.5pp $768	base $746	+0.5pp $724	+1.0pp $702

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,225
• Closing costs: $2,547
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4 Rehoboth Cir Clayton, DE	2.0	2.0	1056	$1,575	$1.49	22d	1	0.13mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-16
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-08
   price $84,900
3. 2026-03-05
   price $88,900
4. 2026-01-13
   price $89,500
5. 2025-11-11
   listed $89,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast DE · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $211 · $18/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $352 · $29/mo
• Expected delta: +$141/yr (+$12/mo · 66.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 63% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,900
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,756
• − Property taxes: −$211
• − Insurance: −$424
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,512
• − Management: −$1,512
• − Depreciation: −$2,470
• Taxable income: $8,015
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,924
• After-tax cash flow: $7,029/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Smyrna School District
• NCES district ID: 1001620
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -25.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -17.00%
• Median HH income: $61,704
• Composite: 27.67/100
• National rank: #6915
• State rank: #16 of 26 in DE

Livability — Clayton

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #11
• US rank: #5758

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Clayton, DE
• Population (ZIP): 9,867

Population outlook (Kent County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 194,477 people
• By 2030: 204,351 · +5.1%
• By 2040: 222,135 · +14.2%
• By 2050: 236,483 · +21.6%
• By 2075: 266,327 · +36.9%
• By 2100: 275,335 · +41.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Black 21% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 2% Subsaharan African 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 3% Korean 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kent

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.2% · R 48.2% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.8pp toward R · 2008: 9.8pp · 2024: 2.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+2.0 2020: D+4.1 2016: R+4.9 2012: D+4.9 2008: D+9.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -70.09%
• Current HPI: 191.9556
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-5.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $84,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $88,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-13 Price Changed $89,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-11-11 Listed $89,900 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $211 · -0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.