7001 Bronco Ct · Creedmoor, TX 78610

$230,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Manufactured public records · 30 Days on market

Built 1998 0.75 ac lot Est $262k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.2/30.0
• ARV discount +13.0/15.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

HUD HOME PROPERTY TO BE SOLD IN AS IS CONDITION. ACCESS WITH HUD KEYRestrictions: Yes

Key facts

• 0.75 acre lot
• 4 parking spots
• Built 1998

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $40 ($480/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $203k (11.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $203k (11.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 4.3% in Creedmoor — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#1,353 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A-, housing B; Watch: cost of living C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Del Valle ISD (rural): math 19% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #749 of 826 in TX (top 91%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.8%/yr); 1002 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($227k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $96k; list at $230k implies a 140% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $203,003 (11.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.75%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $261,856
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12312 Mustang Mesa Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,568 (0%)	6mo	$200,000	$128	90
7007 Gunsmoke Ct	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,596 (+2%)	2mo	$165,000	$103	76
6907 Colt Ct	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,568 (0%)	22mo	$295,000	$188	76
7112 Maverick Ct	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,560 (-0%)	24mo	$260,000	$167	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-40,657
• Equity at exit: $34,294

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-55,056
• Equity at exit: $19,886

Cash invested: $64,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78610

• Rents YoY: -1.8%
• Active inventory: 1002
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,030 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$262 /mo · $3,141/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$426
• Net cashflow: $40

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,979

Max offer price $230,000

Occupancy floor 93%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,500
• Closing costs: $6,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12309 Mustang Mesa Dr Buda, TX	4.0	2.0	1568	$1,790	$1.14	16d	1	0.04mi
6915 Tiznow Ln Buda, TX	3.0	2.5	1845	$2,300	$1.25	1d	1	0.35mi
10613 Ridan Way Buda, TX	4.0	2.0	1531	$2,200	$1.44	1d	1	0.55mi
10615 Ridan Way Buda, TX	3.0	2.5	1678	$2,200	$1.31	1d	1	0.55mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2023-05-17
   soldstatus
2. 2023-05-08
   status Pending
3. 2023-04-26
   historical Active Under Contract
4. 2023-04-08
   listed $230,000 Active
5. 2023-03-21
   soldstatus
6. 2006-12-21
   soldstatus 85-char remark

   Show marketing remark (85 chars)

   HUD HOME PROPERTY TO BE SOLD IN AS IS CONDITION. ACCESS WITH HUD KEYRestrictions: Yes

7. 2006-11-07
   historical 85-char remark

   Show marketing remark (85 chars)

   HUD HOME PROPERTY TO BE SOLD IN AS IS CONDITION. ACCESS WITH HUD KEYRestrictions: Yes

8. 2006-10-13
   listed $30,000 85-char remark

   Show marketing remark (85 chars)

   HUD HOME PROPERTY TO BE SOLD IN AS IS CONDITION. ACCESS WITH HUD KEYRestrictions: Yes

9. 1998-05-22
   soldstatus $96,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,141 · $262/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,209 · $351/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,068/yr (+$89/mo · 34.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,360
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,884
• − Property taxes: −$3,141
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,949
• − Management: −$1,949
• − Depreciation: −$6,691
• Taxable loss: −$3,403
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$817
• After-tax cash flow: $1,297/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Del Valle ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816620
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $41,322
• Composite: 19.13/100
• National rank: #8830
• State rank: #749 of 826 in TX

Livability — Creedmoor

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #1353
• US rank: #23312

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A- Employment C+ Housing B Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Hays County · 280,138 people
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 48,319
• Household income: $119,698
• Rent vs Own: 21.2% rent · 78.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 611.0

Population outlook (Travis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,545,133 people
• By 2030: 1,729,269 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 2,097,596 · +35.8%
• By 2050: 2,463,890 · +59.5%
• By 2075: 3,249,374 · +110.3%
• By 2100: 3,801,868 · +146.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 42% Two or more races 17% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 20% Arabic 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Travis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.3) · D 68.8% · R 29.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.3 2020: D+45.0 2016: D+38.9 2012: D+23.9 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -161.50%
• Current HPI: 220.6824
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.80%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+139.6% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2023-05-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-05-08 Pending — Unlock MLS
• 2023-04-26 Contingent — Unlock MLS
• 2023-04-08 Listed $230,000 Unlock MLS
• 2023-03-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-12-21 Sold (MLS) — Unlock MLS
• 2006-11-07 Delisted — Unlock MLS
• 2006-10-13 Listed $30,000 Unlock MLS
• 1998-05-22 Sold (Public Records) $96,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,141 · +20.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.