19414 Fm 1252 W · Winona, TX 75792

$149,995

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured public records · 59 Days on market

Built 2017 0.70 ac lot $123/sqft · 50% below area Est $300k · 50% under ↓ 23% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +7.4/10.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home! Charming and move-in ready, this well-maintained 2017 single-wide manufactured home offers 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, and a layout designed for comfortable everyday living. The upgraded kitchen showcases modern finishes and opens seamlessly to the spacious living and dining areas, creating a bright and inviting space for family and guests. With a roof that is less than three years old, this home provides added value and peace of mind. A gated entry offers privacy and security, while the generous outdoor space gives you room to relax, entertain, or enjoy the outdoors. Ideally situated just off I-20 and only minutes from Tyler, this property combines convenience, comfort, and practicality in one affordable package. Don’t miss this opportunity—contact the listing agent today to schedule your private showing.

Key facts

• Upgraded kitchen
• Gated entry
• Well-maintained

Tags

• UPGRADED KITCHEN
• GATED ENTRY
• GENEROUS OUTDOOR SPACE
• WELL-MAINTAINED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $65 ($785/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $127k (15.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $127k (15.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,246 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, crime F, amenities F.
• Winona ISD (rural): math 32% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #539 of 826 in TX (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 143 active listings in the ZIP; 595 units permitted in Smith County in 2024 (45 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $7k appreciation (4.7% local appreciation)).
• Smith County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (4.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 60% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $127,108 (15.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.87%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $299,500
• List price: $149,995
• Delta: -49.92%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

4.74% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.87×
• Total profit: $36,476
• Equity at exit: $82,639

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.56×
• Total profit: $107,698
• Equity at exit: $140,709

Cash invested: $41,999 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75792

• Home prices YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 143
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,271 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$90 /mo · $1,076/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$267
• Net cashflow: $65

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,188

Max offer price $149,995

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $150	-5% $108	+0% $65	+5% $23	+10% $-20
Rent	-10% $-35	-5% $15	+0% $65	+5% $116	+10% $166
Rate	-1.0pp $141	-0.5pp $104	base $65	+0.5pp $27	+1.0pp $-13

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,499
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-03-23
   listed $149,995 Active 842-char remark

   Show marketing remark (842 chars)

   Welcome home! Charming and move-in ready, this well-maintained 2017 single-wide manufactured home offers 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, and a layout designed for comfortable everyday living. The upgraded kitchen showcases modern finishes and opens seamlessly to the spacious living and dining areas, creating a bright and inviting space for family and guests. With a roof that is less than three years old, this home provides added value and peace of mind. A gated entry offers privacy and security, while the generous outdoor space gives you room to relax, entertain, or enjoy the outdoors. Ideally situated just off I-20 and only minutes from Tyler, this property combines convenience, comfort, and practicality in one affordable package. Don’t miss this opportunity—contact the listing agent today to schedule your private showing.

2. 2026-01-20
   price $179,000
3. 2025-12-03
   listed $195,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,076 · $90/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,745 · $229/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,669/yr (+$139/mo · 155.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 60% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,253
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$1,076
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,220
• − Management: −$1,220
• − Depreciation: −$4,363
• Taxable loss: −$1,779
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$427
• After-tax cash flow: $1,212/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Winona ISD
• NCES district ID: 4846230
• Math proficiency: 32% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $48,761
• Composite: 28.98/100
• National rank: #6624
• State rank: #539 of 826 in TX

Livability — Winona

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #1246
• US rank: #21753

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,934

Population outlook (Smith County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,890 people
• By 2030: 261,665 · +5.1%
• By 2040: 286,114 · +15.0%
• By 2050: 308,006 · +23.8%
• By 2075: 354,171 · +42.3%
• By 2100: 372,828 · +49.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Black 28% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 14%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 17%

Political lean MEDSL · Smith

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.1) · D 27.0% · R 72.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.6pp toward R · 2008: -39.5pp · 2024: -45.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.1 2020: R+39.4 2016: R+43.9 2012: R+46.9 2008: R+39.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.74%
• Current HPI: 210.9205
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-23.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-23 Listed $149,995 LAAR
• 2026-01-20 Price Changed $179,000 LAAR
• 2025-12-03 Listed $195,000 LAAR

Property tax history

+1.3%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,076 · +11.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.