826 High Mesa Ln · Montgomery, TX 77356

$274,105

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,353 sqft · Land · 51 Days on market

Built 2025 5,520 sqft lot $116/sqft · at area comps Est $280k · at est. $83/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 17% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.8/30.0
• ARV discount +8.4/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.7/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Contact Sales for Details

Key facts

• Open-concept design
• Private owner suite
• Secondary bedroom

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT DESIGN
• SECONDARY BEDROOM
• FULL BATH
• ISLAND KITCHEN
• LARGE GAMEROOM
• PRIVATE OWNER SUITE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $274k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $128 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $233k (15.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $233k (15.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 2.0% in Montgomery — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#372 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Montgomery ISD (rural): math 63% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #49 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.3%/yr); 1056 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($266k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $233,116 (15.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.00%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $279,920
• List price: $274,105
• Delta: -2.08%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-43,176
• Equity at exit: $40,870

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-53,815
• Equity at exit: $23,700

Cash invested: $76,749 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77356

• Home prices YoY: -30.3%
• Rents YoY: -3.3%
• Active inventory: 1056
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,331 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,437
• Tax from tax record: −$79 /mo · $948/yr
• Insurance: −$114
• HOA: −$83
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$490
• Net cashflow: $128

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,169

Max offer price $274,105

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $283	-5% $206	+0% $128	+5% $50	+10% $-27
Rent	-10% $-56	-5% $36	+0% $128	+5% $220	+10% $312
Rate	-1.0pp $266	-0.5pp $198	base $128	+0.5pp $57	+1.0pp $-15

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,526
• Closing costs: $8,223
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $83 · $996/yr

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-05-09
   price $279,105 25-char remark

   Show marketing remark (25 chars)

   Contact Sales for Details

2. 2026-05-08
   price $279,105 518-char remark

   Show marketing remark (518 chars)

   New construction by Centex in Montgomery Bend! The Monroe plan offers 4 bedrooms and 3 baths with an open-concept design perfect for modern living. The main floor features a secondary bedroom and full bath, creating an ideal guest suite. The spacious gathering room flows seamlessly into the island kitchen, perfect for entertaining. Upstairs, enjoy a large gameroom, private owner’s suite, and two secondary bedrooms. Located in an amenity-rich community with pool, park, walking trails, and recreational areas.

3. 2026-04-27
   price $284,395 25-char remark

   Show marketing remark (25 chars)

   Contact Sales for Details

4. 2026-04-25
   price $284,395 518-char remark

   Show marketing remark (518 chars)

   New construction by Centex in Montgomery Bend! The Monroe plan offers 4 bedrooms and 3 baths with an open-concept design perfect for modern living. The main floor features a secondary bedroom and full bath, creating an ideal guest suite. The spacious gathering room flows seamlessly into the island kitchen, perfect for entertaining. Upstairs, enjoy a large gameroom, private owner’s suite, and two secondary bedrooms. Located in an amenity-rich community with pool, park, walking trails, and recreational areas.

5. 2026-04-22
   price $301,105 25-char remark

   Show marketing remark (25 chars)

   Contact Sales for Details

6. 2026-04-07
   listed $304,195 Active 518-char remark

   Show marketing remark (518 chars)

   New construction by Centex in Montgomery Bend! The Monroe plan offers 4 bedrooms and 3 baths with an open-concept design perfect for modern living. The main floor features a secondary bedroom and full bath, creating an ideal guest suite. The spacious gathering room flows seamlessly into the island kitchen, perfect for entertaining. Upstairs, enjoy a large gameroom, private owner’s suite, and two secondary bedrooms. Located in an amenity-rich community with pool, park, walking trails, and recreational areas.

7. 2026-04-07
   historical

   Show marketing remark (518 chars)

   New construction by Centex in Montgomery Bend! The Monroe plan offers 4 bedrooms and 3 baths with an open-concept design perfect for modern living. The main floor features a secondary bedroom and full bath, creating an ideal guest suite. The spacious gathering room flows seamlessly into the island kitchen, perfect for entertaining. Upstairs, enjoy a large gameroom, private owner’s suite, and two secondary bedrooms. Located in an amenity-rich community with pool, park, walking trails, and recreational areas.

8. 2026-04-06
   price $302,395 25-char remark

   Show marketing remark (25 chars)

   Contact Sales for Details

9. 2026-04-03
   price $300,645 25-char remark

   Show marketing remark (25 chars)

   Contact Sales for Details

10. 2026-03-27
    price $299,695 25-char remark

    Show marketing remark (25 chars)

    Contact Sales for Details

11. 2026-03-18
    listed $304,195 Active 25-char remark

    Show marketing remark (25 chars)

    Contact Sales for Details

12. 2026-03-07
    price $304,195
13. 2026-02-27
    price $314,185
14. 2026-01-12
    price $321,195
15. 2025-12-26
    listed $336,195 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $948 · $79/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,016 · $418/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,068/yr (+$339/mo · 428.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,974
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,354
• − Property taxes: −$948
• − Insurance: −$1,371
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,238
• − Management: −$2,238
• − HOA: −$996
• − Depreciation: −$7,974
• Taxable loss: −$3,145
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$755
• After-tax cash flow: $2,290/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montgomery ISD
• NCES district ID: 4831260
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $75,596
• Composite: 53.55/100
• National rank: #1445
• State rank: #49 of 826 in TX

Livability — Montgomery

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #372
• US rank: #7894

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 67,277
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 32,583
• Household income: $106,804
• Rent vs Own: 18.5% rent · 81.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 414.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 8% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -101.28%
• Current HPI: 233.0032
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-17.0% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Price Changed $279,105 Zillow
• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $279,105 HARMLS
• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $284,395 Zillow
• 2026-04-25 Price Changed $284,395 HARMLS
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $301,105 Zillow
• 2026-04-07 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-07 Listed $304,195 HARMLS
• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $302,395 Zillow
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $300,645 Zillow
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $299,695 Zillow
• 2026-03-18 Listed $304,195 Zillow
• 2026-03-07 Price Changed $304,195 HARMLS
• 2026-02-27 Price Changed $314,185 HARMLS
• 2026-01-12 Price Changed $321,195 HARMLS
• 2025-12-26 Listed $336,195 HARMLS