2348 Turnbull Ave · New York, NY 10473

$875,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,950 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 214 Days on market

Built 1945 1,836 sqft lot Est $1168k · 25% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.9/30.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks

Two Family framed detached with 2 . 5 bedrooms plus 2 bedrooms and a finished basement with large yard space and big driveway for up to 5 cars , close to shopping area Soundview ferry pre approval and proof of funds prior to showing

Key facts

• Large yard space
• Finished basement
• Big driveway

Tags

• FINISHED BASEMENT
• LARGE YARD SPACE
• BIG DRIVEWAY
• CLOSE TO SHOPPING AREA

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Public sewer; Cable available; Electricity available; Natural gas available; Phone available
• Home design: Duplex
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Frame construction; Not waterfront; No additional parcels

Interior

• Bedrooms: Two 2-bedroom units
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Other heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; Finished basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 2.0-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $875k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $191 ($2k/yr) — positive. Per door: $96/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $709k (19.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $709k (19.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Zoned schools: Elm Tree Elementary School (math 27% / reading 52%, grade F, #1,444 of 2,108 statewide, top 71%, 806 students, 94% FRL); Jhs 383 Philippa Schuyler (math 32% / reading 67%, grade C, #280 of 729 statewide, top 40%, 822 students, 85% FRL); Midwood High School (math 94% / reading 96%, grade A+, #83 of 1,100 statewide, top 8%, 4,062 students, 73% FRL).
• Market conditions: 141 active listings in the ZIP; 6,929 units permitted in Bronx County in 2024 (6,829 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $7,091/mo this rent would consume 162% of the median local household income ($52k/yr) (locally 3913% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $26k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bronx County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 214 days — a 12% lower offer ($770k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $255k; list at $875k implies a 243% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $709,100 (19.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 214 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
9. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.26%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $1,168,200
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1163 Havemeyer Ave	0.54mi	5/2.0 (+1)	3,032 (+3%)	5mo	$1,202,000	$396	61
1039 Olmstead Ave	0.55mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,796 (-5%)	2mo	$949,000	$339	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-129,888
• Equity at exit: $130,465

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-98,569
• Equity at exit: $75,654

Cash invested: $245,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City New York: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+34

Rent Stabilization Code; HSTPA; 6+ months in housing court.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 10473

• Active inventory: 141
• Price-to-rent: 20.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $7,091 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,589
• Tax from tax record: −$391 /mo · $4,691/yr
• Insurance: −$365
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,489
• Net cashflow: $191

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,849

Max offer price $875,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $687	-5% $439	+0% $191	+5% $-56	+10% $-304
Rent	-10% $-369	-5% $-89	+0% $191	+5% $471	+10% $751
Rate	-1.0pp $632	-0.5pp $414	base $191	+0.5pp $-35	+1.0pp $-266

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2.0	1	$7,092
Total (2 units)			$7,091

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $218,750
• Closing costs: $26,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-05
   status Pending
2. 2025-11-03
   price $875,000
3. 2025-10-03
   listed $937,000 Active
4. 2002-01-04
   soldstatus $255,000
5. 1999-06-30
   soldstatus $225,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,691 · $391/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,739 · $812/mo
• Expected delta: +$5,048/yr (+$421/mo · 107.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 78% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $85,092
• − Mortgage interest: −$49,014
• − Property taxes: −$4,691
• − Insurance: −$5,172
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$6,807
• − Management: −$6,807
• − Depreciation: −$25,455
• Taxable loss: −$12,855
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,085
• After-tax cash flow: $5,381/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — New York

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #268
• US rank: #4188

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A- Housing C+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New York, NY
• County: Bronx County · 1,197,324 people
• City population: 7,731,280
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 58,855
• Household income: $52,462
• Rent vs Own: 71.4% rent · 28.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 3913.0

Population outlook (Bronx County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,353 people
• By 2030: 1,681,852 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 1,824,421 · +13.5%
• By 2050: 1,945,470 · +21.0%
• By 2075: 2,187,887 · +36.1%
• By 2100: 2,244,136 · +39.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (59%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 59% Black 34% Two or more races 12% Asian 2% White 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 31% Dominican 20%
• Common ancestry: British 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 45% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bronx

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+45.4) · D 72.7% · R 27.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -32.3pp toward R · 2008: 77.8pp · 2024: 45.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+45.4 2020: D+67.6 2016: D+79.1 2012: D+82.9 2008: D+77.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -212.70%
• Current HPI: 276.2941
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+288.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-03 Price Changed $875,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-03 Listed $937,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-01-04 Sold (Public Records) $255,000 Public Records
• 1999-06-30 Sold (Public Records) $225,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,691 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.