9616 Durham Dr · Bellefontaine Neighbors, MO 63137

$105,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 850 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 38 Days on market

Built 1954 8,049 sqft lot $124/sqft · 5% above area Est $100k · 5% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.4/30.0
• DSCR +9.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• ARV discount +5.0/15.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Well-maintained and updated 3 bedroom, 1 bathroom home featuring beautiful hardwood floors throughout, updated kitchen and bath, and a partially finished basement. Current tenant in place on a month-to-month agreement paying $995/month, offering flexibility for investors or owner-occupants. Recent major improvements include new furnace, water heater, and exterior sewer replacement completed in April 2025. Pictures are from 2021 Before tenant moved in.

Key facts

• New furnace
• Water heater
• Updated kitchen

Tags

• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• PARTIALLY FINISHED BASEMENT
• NEW FURNACE
• WATER HEATER
• EXTERIOR SEWER REPLACEMENT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Private ownership
• Financial info: Lease not considered
• HOA & community: HOA information unknown — please confirm if there is an HOA

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service by Ameren; Cable available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Private ownership
• Construction: Brick construction; Architectural shingle roof; Basement
• Exterior features: Private yard; Back yard

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator included
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms located on the main level
• Flooring: Hardwood floors
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Basement with concrete floors, partially finished space and storage
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $105k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $274 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $105k).
• Recommended offer: $102k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#592 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Riverview Gardens (suburban): math 2% / reading 9% proficiency, ranked #324 of 324 in MO (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 90% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Gibson Elem. (math 0% / reading 7%, grade F, #1,097 of 1,115 statewide, top 98%, 429 students, 99% FRL); Riverview Gardens Sr. High (math 2% / reading 18%, grade F, #501 of 521 statewide, top 97%, 1,331 students, 100% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.6%/yr); 203 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($43k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $726 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.6% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($102k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $101,850 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.18%
• DSCR: 1.50
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $99,576
• List price: $105,000
• Delta: 5.45%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9632 Cutler Dr	0.05mi	2/1.0	850 (0%)	9mo	$52,360	$62	90
9712 Griffin Dr	0.15mi	2/1.0	850 (0%)	6mo	$119,900	$141	88
1232 Forest Home Dr	0.20mi	3/1.0 (+1)	975 (+15%)	3mo	$114,900	$118	59
5 Forest Home Ct	0.29mi	3/1.0 (+1)	975 (+15%)	5mo	$149,900	$154	53
1224 Billings Dr	0.39mi	3/1.0 (+1)	975 (+15%)	3mo	$149,900	$154	50
1237 Kilgore Dr	0.73mi	2/1.0	792 (-7%)	10mo	$67,900	$86	47
10076 Ashbrook Dr NE	0.74mi	2/1.0	792 (-7%)	10mo	$105,000	$133	46
1507 Golden Dr	0.68mi	3/1.0 (+1)	912 (+7%)	8mo	$79,999	$88	45
1158 Waldorf Dr	0.68mi	2/1.0	944 (+11%)	8mo	$102,000	$108	43
1247 Ashford Dr	0.67mi	3/2.5 (+1)	912 (+7%)	10mo	$99,900	$110	38
9340 Bellefontaine Rd	0.73mi	3/1.0 (+1)	962 (+13%)	10mo	$90,000	$94	31
1139 Bosworth Dr	0.71mi	3/1.0 (+1)	975 (+15%)	10mo	$103,500	$106	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.59% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.17×
• Total profit: $5,112
• Equity at exit: $15,656

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.62×
• Total profit: $47,616
• Equity at exit: $9,078

Cash invested: $29,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63137

• Rents YoY: 6.6%
• Active inventory: 203
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,250 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$551
• Tax from tax record: −$119 /mo · $1,428/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$262
• Net cashflow: $274

Break-even live

Break-even rent $903

Max offer price $105,000

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $333	-5% $304	+0% $274	+5% $244	+10% $214
Rent	-10% $175	-5% $224	+0% $274	+5% $323	+10% $373
Rate	-1.0pp $327	-0.5pp $301	base $274	+0.5pp $247	+1.0pp $219

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,250
• Closing costs: $3,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1130 Forest Home Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1025	$1,275	$1.24	45d	1	0.36mi
9723 Portage Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1014	$1,450	$1.43	8d	1	0.45mi
1255 Bosworth Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1071	$1,575	$1.47	11d	1	0.60mi
9744 Lanier Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1014	$1,345	$1.33	45d	1	0.60mi
2321 Noll Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	975	$1,320	$1.35	25d	1	0.77mi
1225 Newark Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	944	$1,400	$1.48	4d	1	0.80mi
2326 Chambers Rd Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1056	$1,050	$0.99	25d	1	0.86mi
1520 Attica Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1062	$1,200	$1.13	25d	1	0.88mi
10200 Tappan Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,450	$1.59	17d	1	0.90mi
10113 Duke Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	770	$1,325	$1.72	45d	1	0.91mi
10139 Royal Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1016	$900	$0.89	45d	1	0.92mi
9418 Pattonwood Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	2.0	982	$1,500	$1.53	25d	1	0.94mi
2152 Nemnich Rd Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.5	1030	$1,100	$1.07	45d	1	0.96mi
10112 Count Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	792	$1,000	$1.26	8d	1	1.01mi
623 Ludlow Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	840	$1,199	$1.43	25d	1	1.01mi
10113 Count Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	882	$775	$0.88	45d	1	1.02mi
960 Raford Ct St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	750	$950	$1.27	25d	1	1.07mi
1253 Avant Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	795	$1,295	$1.63	16d	1	1.09mi
1253 Avant Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	795	$1,295	$1.63	19d	1	1.09mi
9811 Lilac Dr Unit I St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	705	$799	$1.13	45d	1	1.13mi
9924 Gloucester Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	992	$1,565	$1.58	11d	1	1.15mi
9805 Lilac Dr Saint Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	575	$720	$1.25	45d	1	1.15mi
1115 Bakewell Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	916	$1,300	$1.42	45d	1	1.17mi
849 River Trail Ct Apt 201 St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	700	$825	$1.18	45d	1	1.18mi
849 River Trail Ct #102 St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	700	$825	$1.18	25d	1	1.18mi
10367 Coburg Lands Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,270	$1.39	45d	1	1.18mi
9943 Lilac Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1086	$1,000	$0.92	45d	1	1.19mi
10066 Dorothy Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	916	$1,225	$1.34	23d	1	1.22mi
1230 Roxton Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,400	$1.54	23d	1	1.23mi
1009 Bliss Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,400	$1.54	45d	1	1.23mi
10421 Prince Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1023	$1,275	$1.25	25d	1	1.25mi
10203 Trio Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,435	$1.57	17d	1	1.27mi
460 Bluff Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1002	$1,300	$1.30	45d	1	1.28mi
10404 Earl Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	770	$1,100	$1.43	5d	1	1.28mi
10365 Lord Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	864	$1,075	$1.24	3d	1	1.29mi
10322 Monarch Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1073	$1,728	$1.61	25d	1	1.32mi
2008 Kappel Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	858	$1,175	$1.37	25d	1	1.32mi
435 Adrian Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1100	$950	$0.86	21d	1	1.34mi
819 Gustav Ave Apt A St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	550	$740	$1.35	25d	1	1.34mi
819 Gustav Ave Unit 832 B St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	550	$740	$1.35	45d	1	1.34mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $105,000 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $105,000 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $105,000 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $105,000 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $105,000 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $105,000 Active 30 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $105,000 Active 29 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $105,000 Active 26 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $105,000 Active 25 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $105,000 Active 24 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $105,000 Active 21 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $105,000 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $105,000 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $105,000 Active 18 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $105,000 Active 17 DOM
16. 2026-05-14
    listed $105,000 Active 455-char remark
17. 2006-03-14
    soldstatus $102,900
18. 1998-06-30
    soldstatus $59,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,428 · $119/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,428 · $119/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,996
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,882
• − Property taxes: −$1,428
• − Insurance: −$525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,200
• − Management: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$3,055
• Taxable income: $1,707
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$410
• After-tax cash flow: $2,876/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Riverview Gardens
• NCES district ID: 2926670
• Math proficiency: 2% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 9% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $32,759
• Composite: 4.22/100
• National rank: #10058
• State rank: #324 of 324 in MO

Livability — Bellefontaine Neighbors

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #592
• US rank: #20944

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bellefontaine Neighbors, MO
• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• City population: 19,684
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 19,684
• Household income: $43,422
• Rent vs Own: 52.2% rent · 47.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1863.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 82% White 13% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -96.70%
• Current HPI: 130.6765
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.59%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+78.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Listed $105,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-03-14 Sold (Public Records) $102,900 Public Records
• 1998-06-30 Sold (Public Records) $59,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2022): $1,428 · +0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.