114 Cincinnati Rd · Hopewell, PA 16650

$134,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 672 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1960 0.42 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.0/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Looking for a cozy getaway or a full-time residence? Check out this home in the little community of Locust Beach (Northern Bedford SD). sitting on . 424 acres, On the main floor you will find a bedroom, a full Bath, living room and a recently updated Kitchen. The upstairs offers a versatile space that could be extra sleeping area, office, etc. Stunning natural wood throughout the home. Full basement. Easy access to river frontage at Locust Beach. Great for fishing, kayaking etc.

Key facts

• River frontage
• Natural wood
• 0.42 acre lot

Tags

• NATURAL WOOD
• RIVER FRONTAGE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Well water; Holding tank sewer
• Home design: Detached single-family structure; Metal roof; Entry levels include above-grade and below-grade finished areas
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Block foundation; Full unfinished basement with outside entrance
• Exterior features: Water view; Ground rent paid annually

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen (appliances not specified)
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Oil-fired heating fuel; Electric hot water
• Interior features: Living room; Great room
• Laundry & utility: Utilities present (details under Utilities section)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-112 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $115k (14.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $98k (27.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $98k (27.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,615 in PA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: crime D+, employment D, amenities F.
• Northern Bedford County SD (rural): math 37% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #154 of 539 in PA (top 29%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Northern Bedford Co El Sch (math 37% / reading 62%, grade D, #654 of 1,518 statewide, top 47%, 445 students, 50% FRL); Northern Bedford County Ms (math 22% / reading 72%, grade D+, #163 of 512 statewide, top 33%, 182 students, 45% FRL); Northern Bedford County Hs (math 95%, 249 students, 41% FRL).
• Market conditions: 12 active listings in the ZIP; 54 units permitted in Bedford County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($933 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (2.0% local appreciation)).
• Bedford County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $45k; list at $135k implies a 200% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $98,411 (27.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.79%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.78%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.05% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.07×
• Total profit: $2,478
• Equity at exit: $53,576

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.73×
• Total profit: $27,395
• Equity at exit: $77,434

Cash invested: $37,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16650

• Home prices YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 12
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $984 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$707
• Tax from tax record: −$70 /mo · $838/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$207
• Net cashflow: $-112

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,125

Max offer price $115,193

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-35	-5% $-73	+0% $-112	+5% $-150	+10% $-188
Rent	-10% $-189	-5% $-150	+0% $-112	+5% $-73	+10% $-34
Rate	-1.0pp $-44	-0.5pp $-77	base $-112	+0.5pp $-147	+1.0pp $-182

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,725
• Closing costs: $4,047
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-15
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-14
   status Pending 483-char remark

   Show marketing remark (483 chars)

   Looking for a cozy getaway or a full-time residence? Check out this home in the little community of Locust Beach (Northern Bedford SD). sitting on . 424 acres, On the main floor you will find a bedroom, a full Bath, living room and a recently updated Kitchen. The upstairs offers a versatile space that could be extra sleeping area, office, etc. Stunning natural wood throughout the home. Full basement. Easy access to river frontage at Locust Beach. Great for fishing, kayaking etc.

3. 2026-05-08
   listed $134,900 Active

   Show marketing remark (483 chars)

   Looking for a cozy getaway or a full-time residence? Check out this home in the little community of Locust Beach (Northern Bedford SD). sitting on . 424 acres, On the main floor you will find a bedroom, a full Bath, living room and a recently updated Kitchen. The upstairs offers a versatile space that could be extra sleeping area, office, etc. Stunning natural wood throughout the home. Full basement. Easy access to river frontage at Locust Beach. Great for fishing, kayaking etc.

4. 2026-05-08
   listed $134,900 Active 483-char remark

   Show marketing remark (483 chars)

   Looking for a cozy getaway or a full-time residence? Check out this home in the little community of Locust Beach (Northern Bedford SD). sitting on . 424 acres, On the main floor you will find a bedroom, a full Bath, living room and a recently updated Kitchen. The upstairs offers a versatile space that could be extra sleeping area, office, etc. Stunning natural wood throughout the home. Full basement. Easy access to river frontage at Locust Beach. Great for fishing, kayaking etc.

5. 2023-11-09
   soldstatus $45,000
6. 2002-06-10
   soldstatus $40,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $838 · $70/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,485 · $124/mo
• Expected delta: +$647/yr (+$54/mo · 77.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,809
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,556
• − Property taxes: −$838
• − Insurance: −$1,341
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$945
• − Management: −$945
• − Depreciation: −$3,924
• Taxable loss: −$3,740
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$898
• After-tax cash flow: $-441/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Northern Bedford County SD
• NCES district ID: 4217580
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 67% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $49,732
• Composite: 44.3/100
• National rank: #2832
• State rank: #154 of 539 in PA

Livability — Hopewell

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #1615
• US rank: #22072

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,797

Population outlook (Bedford County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 45,395 people
• By 2030: 43,353 · -4.5%
• By 2040: 38,858 · -14.4%
• By 2050: 34,162 · -24.7%
• By 2075: 24,868 · -45.2%
• By 2100: 16,910 · -62.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Two or more races 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bedford

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+68.6) · D 15.4% · R 84.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.8pp toward R · 2008: -44.8pp · 2024: -68.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+68.6 2020: R+67.7 2016: R+67.4 2012: R+54.9 2008: R+44.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• Current HPI: 129.5879
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+237.2% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-14 Pending — AHARMLS
• 2026-05-08 Listed $134,900 AHARMLS
• 2026-05-08 Listed $134,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-11-09 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records
• 2002-06-10 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2026): $838 · +9.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.