788 Chestnut Dr · Montgomery, PA 19454

$154,800

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Manufactured public records · 68 Days on market

Built 1987 $161/sqft · 13% below area Est $178k · 13% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +13.3/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.3/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Don't miss your chance to tour this stunning, bright and airy 2 bedroom, 2 bath home located in an Active Adult Community, The Village of Neshaminy Falls! Enjoy the charm of a huge covered front porch; classic colonial blue siding along with manicured lawn and gardens. Freshly painted throughout, featuring light toned flooring and a thoughtfully designed layout. Every room is filled with natural light, creating a warm and inviting atmosphere. Impressive, newly built clubhouse with direct access to a veranda overlooking a huge inground pool. A fitness room, library, game room, so much more offered for relaxation and socializing with neighbors. Trash, sewer, common area snow removal, bus shuttle to local markets also included along with many other wonderful activities. Make your appointment today, another fabulous home to make your own!

Key facts

• Community pool
• Built 1987
• Listed 68 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $652 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $155k).
• Recommended offer: $146k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.3% vs local median 3.5% in Montgomery — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#727 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• North Penn SD (suburban): math 48% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #76 of 539 in PA (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.6%/yr); 100 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,936 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (530 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.6% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 68 days — a 6% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $70k; list at $155k implies a 121% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,512 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 68 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.33% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.06%
• DSCR: 1.80
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $177,660
• List price: $154,800
• Delta: -12.87%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.62% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.46×
• Total profit: $19,838
• Equity at exit: $23,081

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.96×
• Total profit: $85,122
• Equity at exit: $13,384

Cash invested: $43,344 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 19454

• Rents YoY: 4.6%
• Active inventory: 100
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,060 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$812
• Tax from tax record: −$99 /mo · $1,187/yr
• Insurance: −$64
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$433
• Net cashflow: $652

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,234

Max offer price $154,800

Occupancy floor 63%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,700
• Closing costs: $4,644
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
415 Stump Rd North Wales, PA	2.0	1.0–2.0	827	$2,702	$3.27	1d	17	1.07mi
2408 Adams Ct Unit 2408 North Wales, PA	2.0	2.0	970	$1,900	$1.96	1d	1	1.26mi
1401 Morris Ct North Wales, PA	2.0	2.0	932	$2,100	$2.25	19d	1	1.39mi
1202 Braxton Ct #1202 North Wales, PA	2.0	2.0	932	$1,875	$2.01	43d	1	1.41mi
1003 Thornton Ct North Wales, PA	2.0	2.0	991	$2,000	$2.02	11d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-19
   status $154,800 Pending 68 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   status $154,800 Active Under Contract 68 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $154,800 Active 68 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $154,800 Active 67 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $154,800 Active 65 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $154,800 Active 64 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $154,800 Active 61 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $154,800 Active 60 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $154,800 Active 59 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $154,800 Active 55 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $154,800 Active 54 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $154,800 Active 53 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $154,800 Active 52 DOM
14. 2026-04-26
    price $169,800 846-char remark

    Show marketing remark (846 chars)

    Don't miss your chance to tour this stunning, bright and airy 2 bedroom, 2 bath home located in an Active Adult Community, The Village of Neshaminy Falls! Enjoy the charm of a huge covered front porch; classic colonial blue siding along with manicured lawn and gardens. Freshly painted throughout, featuring light toned flooring and a thoughtfully designed layout. Every room is filled with natural light, creating a warm and inviting atmosphere. Impressive, newly built clubhouse with direct access to a veranda overlooking a huge inground pool. A fitness room, library, game room, so much more offered for relaxation and socializing with neighbors. Trash, sewer, common area snow removal, bus shuttle to local markets also included along with many other wonderful activities. Make your appointment today, another fabulous home to make your own!

15. 2026-04-09
    listed $189,800 Active 846-char remark

    Show marketing remark (846 chars)

    Don't miss your chance to tour this stunning, bright and airy 2 bedroom, 2 bath home located in an Active Adult Community, The Village of Neshaminy Falls! Enjoy the charm of a huge covered front porch; classic colonial blue siding along with manicured lawn and gardens. Freshly painted throughout, featuring light toned flooring and a thoughtfully designed layout. Every room is filled with natural light, creating a warm and inviting atmosphere. Impressive, newly built clubhouse with direct access to a veranda overlooking a huge inground pool. A fitness room, library, game room, so much more offered for relaxation and socializing with neighbors. Trash, sewer, common area snow removal, bus shuttle to local markets also included along with many other wonderful activities. Make your appointment today, another fabulous home to make your own!

16. 2026-04-09
    historical $189,800 846-char remark

    Show marketing remark (846 chars)

    Don't miss your chance to tour this stunning, bright and airy 2 bedroom, 2 bath home located in an Active Adult Community, The Village of Neshaminy Falls! Enjoy the charm of a huge covered front porch; classic colonial blue siding along with manicured lawn and gardens. Freshly painted throughout, featuring light toned flooring and a thoughtfully designed layout. Every room is filled with natural light, creating a warm and inviting atmosphere. Impressive, newly built clubhouse with direct access to a veranda overlooking a huge inground pool. A fitness room, library, game room, so much more offered for relaxation and socializing with neighbors. Trash, sewer, common area snow removal, bus shuttle to local markets also included along with many other wonderful activities. Make your appointment today, another fabulous home to make your own!

17. 2016-09-03
    soldstatus $69,900 745-char remark

    Show marketing remark (745 chars)

    Looking for a home that has it all -- from beauty to economic value? Look no further!! This charming two bedroom/2 bath property includes special touches that will make you feel comfortable and right at home. This home was completely winterized with extra insulation to keep your heating and AC costs at a minimum and each wall is attractively adorned with Sanitas Modern Wall covering which is very pleasing to the eyes. Enjoy the summer breeze sitting outside on the covered porch and marvel at the nicely manicured landscape. This home also comes with: Updated plumbing in guest bath, newer W/ D and flooring underneath, newer tilt-in windows, custom blinds in bedrooms and all new air ducts throughout the home. Make your appointment soon!

18. 2016-09-03
    soldstatus $69,900 Sold

    Show marketing remark (745 chars)

    Looking for a home that has it all -- from beauty to economic value? Look no further!! This charming two bedroom/2 bath property includes special touches that will make you feel comfortable and right at home. This home was completely winterized with extra insulation to keep your heating and AC costs at a minimum and each wall is attractively adorned with Sanitas Modern Wall covering which is very pleasing to the eyes. Enjoy the summer breeze sitting outside on the covered porch and marvel at the nicely manicured landscape. This home also comes with: Updated plumbing in guest bath, newer W/ D and flooring underneath, newer tilt-in windows, custom blinds in bedrooms and all new air ducts throughout the home. Make your appointment soon!

19. 2016-07-08
    status Under Contract

    Show marketing remark (745 chars)

    Looking for a home that has it all -- from beauty to economic value? Look no further!! This charming two bedroom/2 bath property includes special touches that will make you feel comfortable and right at home. This home was completely winterized with extra insulation to keep your heating and AC costs at a minimum and each wall is attractively adorned with Sanitas Modern Wall covering which is very pleasing to the eyes. Enjoy the summer breeze sitting outside on the covered porch and marvel at the nicely manicured landscape. This home also comes with: Updated plumbing in guest bath, newer W/ D and flooring underneath, newer tilt-in windows, custom blinds in bedrooms and all new air ducts throughout the home. Make your appointment soon!

20. 2016-07-08
    historical 745-char remark

    Show marketing remark (745 chars)

    Looking for a home that has it all -- from beauty to economic value? Look no further!! This charming two bedroom/2 bath property includes special touches that will make you feel comfortable and right at home. This home was completely winterized with extra insulation to keep your heating and AC costs at a minimum and each wall is attractively adorned with Sanitas Modern Wall covering which is very pleasing to the eyes. Enjoy the summer breeze sitting outside on the covered porch and marvel at the nicely manicured landscape. This home also comes with: Updated plumbing in guest bath, newer W/ D and flooring underneath, newer tilt-in windows, custom blinds in bedrooms and all new air ducts throughout the home. Make your appointment soon!

21. 2016-06-24
    listed $69,900 Active No-Show
22. 2016-06-23
    listed $69,900 745-char remark

    Show marketing remark (745 chars)

    Looking for a home that has it all -- from beauty to economic value? Look no further!! This charming two bedroom/2 bath property includes special touches that will make you feel comfortable and right at home. This home was completely winterized with extra insulation to keep your heating and AC costs at a minimum and each wall is attractively adorned with Sanitas Modern Wall covering which is very pleasing to the eyes. Enjoy the summer breeze sitting outside on the covered porch and marvel at the nicely manicured landscape. This home also comes with: Updated plumbing in guest bath, newer W/ D and flooring underneath, newer tilt-in windows, custom blinds in bedrooms and all new air ducts throughout the home. Make your appointment soon!

23. 2011-04-07
    soldstatus $48,000
24. 2011-04-07
    soldstatus $48,000
25. 2011-03-08
    historical
26. 2010-03-09
    listed $54,900
27. 2010-03-09
    listed $54,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,187 · $99/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,816 · $151/mo
• Expected delta: +$630/yr (+$52/mo · 53.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,719
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,671
• − Property taxes: −$1,187
• − Insurance: −$774
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,978
• − Management: −$1,978
• − Depreciation: −$4,503
• Taxable income: $5,629
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,351
• After-tax cash flow: $6,475/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North Penn SD
• NCES district ID: 4217280
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 67% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $76,866
• Composite: 51.5/100
• National rank: #1722
• State rank: #76 of 539 in PA

Livability — Montgomery

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #727
• US rank: #7279

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 712,331 people
• Metro: Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD
• Population (ZIP): 27,755
• Household income: $118,177
• Rent vs Own: 22.3% rent · 77.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 459.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 856,074 people
• By 2030: 870,887 · +1.7%
• By 2040: 891,195 · +4.1%
• By 2050: 896,417 · +4.7%
• By 2075: 903,212 · +5.5%
• By 2100: 843,240 · -1.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Asian 18% Black 6% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · South Korea, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Korean 5% Other Indo-European 5% Chinese 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+22.8) · D 60.9% · R 38.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.0pp toward D · 2008: 20.8pp · 2024: 22.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+22.8 2020: D+26.3 2016: D+21.1 2012: D+14.3 2008: D+20.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -220.54%
• Current HPI: 270.3006
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.62%
• Metro: Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+209.3% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-26 Price Changed $169,800 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-09 Listed $189,800 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-09 Coming Soon $189,800 BRIGHT MLS
• 2016-09-03 Sold (MLS) $69,900 TREND
• 2016-09-03 Sold (MLS) $69,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2016-07-08 Pending — TREND
• 2016-07-08 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2016-06-24 Listed $69,900 TREND
• 2016-06-23 Listed $69,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2011-04-07 Sold (MLS) $48,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2011-04-07 Sold (MLS) $48,000 TREND
• 2011-03-08 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2010-03-09 Listed $54,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2010-03-09 Listed $54,900 TREND

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,187 · +6.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.