15316 Todd Trl · Shady Hills, FL 34610

$285,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · Manufactured public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1982 1.14 ac lot Est $282k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.0/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Need a garage? This 3 (possibly 4) bedroom double-wide sits on 1.14 acres and includes a separate 1,400 Sq. Ft detached garage/metal building! Fully fenced yard, Concrete Block Wall across the front of the property with gated access. Room to breath, and a nicely finished living space with HUGE front sunroom = a great place to call home. Call and schedule your appointment to see this fantastic property today!

Key facts

• 1.14 acre lot
• 8 garage spots
• Built 1982

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property is homesteaded; Lot approximately 1.14 acres
• HOA & community: No HOA/association

Exterior

• Parking: Attached or detached garage space for 8 vehicles
• Utilities: Private water; Septic tank; Cable connected; Electricity connected; Solar energy generation
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; Single level; Faces east
• Construction: Frame construction; Shingle roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built as a manufactured home
• Exterior features: Rain gutters; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heat; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $285k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-10 ($-121/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $283k (0.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $211k (26.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $211k (26.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.5% in Shady Hills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#467 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety C-, commute D+.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Shady Hills Elementary School (math 48% / reading 45%, grade D-, #1,223 of 2,144 statewide, top 57%, 471 students, 77% FRL); Crews Lake Middle School. (math 47% / reading 39%, grade D-, #331 of 571 statewide, top 59%, 834 students, 67% FRL) — zoned schools average 72% FRL vs 48% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 257 active listings in the ZIP; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 10 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $120k; list at $285k implies a 138% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $210,910 (26.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.15%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $282,000
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14600 Todd Trl	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+12%)	14mo	$316,000	$235	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-46,972
• Equity at exit: $42,494

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-42,332
• Equity at exit: $24,642

Cash invested: $79,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34610

• Home prices YoY: -13.8%
• Active inventory: 257
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,109 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,495
• Tax from tax record: −$63 /mo · $755/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$443
• Net cashflow: $-10

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,122

Max offer price $283,221

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $151	-5% $71	+0% $-10	+5% $-91	+10% $-171
Rent	-10% $-177	-5% $-93	+0% $-10	+5% $73	+10% $157
Rate	-1.0pp $133	-0.5pp $62	base $-10	+0.5pp $-84	+1.0pp $-159

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,250
• Closing costs: $8,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-05-16
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-12
   status Active
3. 2026-05-10
   status Pending
4. 2026-05-05
   listed $285,000 Active
5. 2025-03-14
   status Active
6. 2025-02-12
   price $279,900
7. 2024-12-07
   listed $299,900 Active
8. 2017-07-17
   soldstatus $120,000
9. 2017-07-14
   soldstatus $120,000 411-char remark

   Show marketing remark (411 chars)

   Need a garage? This 3 (possibly 4) bedroom double-wide sits on 1.14 acres and includes a separate 1,400 Sq. Ft detached garage/metal building! Fully fenced yard, Concrete Block Wall across the front of the property with gated access. Room to breath, and a nicely finished living space with HUGE front sunroom = a great place to call home. Call and schedule your appointment to see this fantastic property today!

10. 2017-07-14
    soldstatus $120,000 Sold

    Show marketing remark (411 chars)

    Need a garage? This 3 (possibly 4) bedroom double-wide sits on 1.14 acres and includes a separate 1,400 Sq. Ft detached garage/metal building! Fully fenced yard, Concrete Block Wall across the front of the property with gated access. Room to breath, and a nicely finished living space with HUGE front sunroom = a great place to call home. Call and schedule your appointment to see this fantastic property today!

11. 2017-07-14
    soldstatus $120,000

    Show marketing remark (411 chars)

    Need a garage? This 3 (possibly 4) bedroom double-wide sits on 1.14 acres and includes a separate 1,400 Sq. Ft detached garage/metal building! Fully fenced yard, Concrete Block Wall across the front of the property with gated access. Room to breath, and a nicely finished living space with HUGE front sunroom = a great place to call home. Call and schedule your appointment to see this fantastic property today!

12. 2017-04-18
    status Pending
13. 2017-04-10
    price $120,000
14. 2017-03-13
    price $100,000
15. 2017-03-13
    status Active
16. 2017-03-09
    status Pending
17. 2017-01-11
    listed $120,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (411 chars)

    Need a garage? This 3 (possibly 4) bedroom double-wide sits on 1.14 acres and includes a separate 1,400 Sq. Ft detached garage/metal building! Fully fenced yard, Concrete Block Wall across the front of the property with gated access. Room to breath, and a nicely finished living space with HUGE front sunroom = a great place to call home. Call and schedule your appointment to see this fantastic property today!

18. 2017-01-11
    listed $120,000 411-char remark

    Show marketing remark (411 chars)

    Need a garage? This 3 (possibly 4) bedroom double-wide sits on 1.14 acres and includes a separate 1,400 Sq. Ft detached garage/metal building! Fully fenced yard, Concrete Block Wall across the front of the property with gated access. Room to breath, and a nicely finished living space with HUGE front sunroom = a great place to call home. Call and schedule your appointment to see this fantastic property today!

19. 2017-01-11
    listed $120,000

    Show marketing remark (411 chars)

    Need a garage? This 3 (possibly 4) bedroom double-wide sits on 1.14 acres and includes a separate 1,400 Sq. Ft detached garage/metal building! Fully fenced yard, Concrete Block Wall across the front of the property with gated access. Room to breath, and a nicely finished living space with HUGE front sunroom = a great place to call home. Call and schedule your appointment to see this fantastic property today!

20. 2016-11-28
    soldstatus $72,000
21. 2016-11-21
    soldstatus $72,000
22. 2016-11-21
    soldstatus $72,000
23. 2016-11-08
    listed $75,000
24. 2016-11-08
    listed $75,000
25. 2016-01-12
    soldstatus $21,355

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $755 · $63/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,366 · $197/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,610/yr (+$134/mo · 213.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,309
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,964
• − Property taxes: −$755
• − Insurance: −$1,425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,025
• − Management: −$2,025
• − Depreciation: −$8,291
• Taxable loss: −$5,176
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,242
• After-tax cash flow: $1,121/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Shady Hills

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #467
• US rank: #8437

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D+ Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shady Hills, FL
• Population (ZIP): 16,544

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 12% Asian 2% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Serbian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -55.13%
• Current HPI: 342.8714
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1234.6% since first listed

25 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-12 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-10 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-05 Listed $285,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-14 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-12 Price Changed $279,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-12-07 Listed $299,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-07-17 Sold (Public Records) $120,000 Public Records
• 2017-07-14 Sold (MLS) $120,000 St. Augustine and St. Johns County Board of REALTORS®
• 2017-07-14 Sold (MLS) $120,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-07-14 Sold (MLS) $120,000 HCAR
• 2017-04-18 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-04-10 Price Changed $120,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-03-13 Price Changed $100,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-03-13 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-03-09 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-01-11 Listed $120,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-01-11 Listed $120,000 St. Augustine and St. Johns County Board of REALTORS®
• 2017-01-11 Listed $120,000 HCAR
• 2016-11-28 Sold (Public Records) $72,000 Public Records
• 2016-11-21 Sold (MLS) $72,000 St. Augustine and St. Johns County Board of REALTORS®
• 2016-11-21 Sold (MLS) $72,000 HCAR
• 2016-11-08 Listed $75,000 St. Augustine and St. Johns County Board of REALTORS®
• 2016-11-08 Listed $75,000 HCAR
• 2016-01-12 Sold (Public Records) $21,355 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $755 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.