626 Todd Ave · Ellwood City, PA 16117

$39,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 896 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 184 Days on market

Built 1975 4,660 sqft lot $45/sqft · 70% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investor opportunity! This 2-bedroom, 1-bath home is being sold cash only, as-is and requires extensive renovation. Property offers off-street parking and is ideal for a full rehab, flip, or rental investment. Bring your vision and contractor.

Key facts

• Extensive renovation
• Full rehab
• Rental investment

Tags

• OFF-STREET PARKING
• EXTENSIVE RENOVATION
• FULL REHAB
• RENTAL INVESTMENT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $624 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $35k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 25.1% vs local median 5.3% in Ellwood City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#610 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Ellwood City Area SD (town): math 28% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #334 of 539 in PA (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 53 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 51 units permitted in Lawrence County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $276 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lawrence County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 184 days — a 12% lower offer ($35k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $40k implies a 100% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $35,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 184 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.86% ✓
• Cap rate: 25.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 67.07%
• DSCR: 3.98
• GRM: 2.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $132,093
• List price: $39,900
• Delta: -69.79%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
625 Todd Ave	0.03mi	2/2.0	912 (+2%)	8mo	$140,000	$154	85
536 1st Ave	0.10mi	3/1.0 (+1)	859 (-4%)	12mo	$120,000	$140	73
222 Keystone Way	0.43mi	2/1.0	938 (+5%)	6mo	$30,125	$32	67
705 Todd Ave	0.06mi	3/2.5 (+1)	816 (-9%)	6mo	$155,000	$190	66
528 Ellwood Ave	0.32mi	2/1.0	979 (+9%)	8mo	$143,000	$146	63
606 Bridge St	0.40mi	2/1.5	824 (-8%)	8mo	$137,000	$166	60
1014 Crescent Ave	0.64mi	2/2.0	892 (-0%)	14mo	$40,000	$45	54
335 Pittsburgh Cir	0.52mi	2/1.5	936 (+4%)	19mo	$148,000	$158	51
719 Crescent Ave	0.57mi	2/1.0	1,024 (+14%)	2mo	$61,890	$60	48
1107 Wayne Ave	0.75mi	3/1.0 (+1)	904 (+1%)	15mo	$43,900	$49	46
612 5th St	0.74mi	2/1.0	1,006 (+12%)	11mo	$94,000	$93	36
305 Johnston Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0 (+1)	780 (-13%)	6mo	$172,500	$221	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 66.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.98×
• Total profit: $33,323
• Equity at exit: $5,949

10-year hold

• IRR: 70.7%
• Equity multiple: 8.19×
• Total profit: $80,299
• Equity at exit: $3,450

Cash invested: $11,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16117

• Home prices YoY: -7.5%
• Active inventory: 53
• Price-to-rent: 2.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,139 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$209
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$50 /mo · $598/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$239
• Net cashflow: $624

Break-even live

Break-even rent $349

Max offer price $39,900

Occupancy floor 40%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $652	-5% $638	+0% $624	+5% $611	+10% $597
Rent	-10% $534	-5% $579	+0% $624	+5% $669	+10% $714
Rate	-1.0pp $645	-0.5pp $635	base $624	+0.5pp $614	+1.0pp $604

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,975
• Closing costs: $1,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
716 Hazel Ave Ellwood City, PA	3.0	1.5	1037	$1,350	$1.30	4d	1	0.24mi
56 Franklin Ave Unit A Ellwood City, PA	1.0	1.0	800	$765	$0.96	44d	1	0.88mi
56 Franklin Ave Unit B Ellwood City, PA	1.0	1.0	800	$765	$0.96	13d	1	0.88mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $39,900 Active 184 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $39,900 Active 183 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $39,900 Active 182 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $39,900 Active 181 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $39,900 Active 180 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $39,900 Active 178 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $39,900 Active 177 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $39,900 Active 174 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $39,900 Active 173 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $39,900 Active 172 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $39,900 Active 168 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $39,900 Active 167 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $39,900 Active 166 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $39,900 Active 165 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $39,900 Active 164 DOM
16. 2025-12-15
    listed $39,900 Active 243-char remark

    Show marketing remark (243 chars)

    Investor opportunity! This 2-bedroom, 1-bath home is being sold cash only, as-is and requires extensive renovation. Property offers off-street parking and is ideal for a full rehab, flip, or rental investment. Bring your vision and contractor.

17. 2016-10-13
    historical Expired 396-char remark

    Show marketing remark (396 chars)

    Charming starter, down-sizer or investment this two bedroom home located in Ellwood City's North Side neighborhood is walking distance to the elementary school, parks and recreation center. Situated on a nicely sized, level lot with off street parking in the rear this home features spacious room sizes, a country style kitchen with dining room combo, enclosed rear porch and updated mechanicals.

18. 2015-10-14
    listed $49,900 Active 396-char remark

    Show marketing remark (396 chars)

    Charming starter, down-sizer or investment this two bedroom home located in Ellwood City's North Side neighborhood is walking distance to the elementary school, parks and recreation center. Situated on a nicely sized, level lot with off street parking in the rear this home features spacious room sizes, a country style kitchen with dining room combo, enclosed rear porch and updated mechanicals.

19. 1994-07-15
    soldstatus $20,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,674
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,235
• − Property taxes: −$598
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,094
• − Management: −$1,094
• − Depreciation: −$1,161
• Taxable income: $7,292
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,750
• After-tax cash flow: $5,743/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ellwood City Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4209240
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $44,230
• Composite: 35.49/100
• National rank: #4921
• State rank: #334 of 539 in PA

Livability — Ellwood City

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #610
• US rank: #5866

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ellwood City, PA
• Population (ZIP): 16,013

Population outlook (Lawrence County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 81,781 people
• By 2030: 77,978 · -4.7%
• By 2040: 69,522 · -15.0%
• By 2050: 61,344 · -25.0%
• By 2075: 45,027 · -44.9%
• By 2100: 31,305 · -61.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Serbian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Lawrence

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.8) · D 32.8% · R 66.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.7pp toward R · 2008: -5.1pp · 2024: -33.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.8 2020: R+29.6 2016: R+28.1 2012: R+9.0 2008: R+5.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -20.81%
• Current HPI: 257.3336
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+99.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-15 Listed $39,900 West Penn MLS
• 2016-10-13 Delisted — West Penn MLS
• 2015-10-14 Listed $49,900 West Penn MLS
• 1994-07-15 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,132 · +3.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.