1317 Spearfish Mountain Ln · Spearfish, SD 57783

$62,500

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 910 sqft · Manufactured public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1984 Est $74k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +14.3/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• New siding
• New doors
• New flooring

Tags

• NEW SIDING
• NEW WINDOWS
• NEW DOORS
• KITCHEN CABINETS
• NEW FLOORING
• ENCLOSED PORCH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath manufactured listed at $62k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $62k).
• Cap rate 28.2% vs local median 2.2% in Spearfish — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#83 in SD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-, schools B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Spearfish School District 40-2 (town): math 45% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #32 of 59 in SD (top 54%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 288 active listings in the ZIP; 217 units permitted in Lawrence County in 2024 (11 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $432 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lawrence County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $62,500

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 28.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 78.38%
• DSCR: 4.49
• GRM: 2.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $73,710
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1107 Roughlock Ln	0.15mi	2/2.0 (-1)	924 (+2%)	4mo	$66,500	$72	79
1105 Spearfish Mountain Ln	0.20mi	2/1.0 (-1)	938 (+3%)	4mo	$61,000	$65	69
1127 Crow Peak Ln	0.06mi	2/1.0 (-1)	924 (+2%)	15mo	$75,000	$81	69
1113 Elkhorn Peak Ln	0.07mi	2/1.0 (-1)	960 (+6%)	20mo	$85,000	$89	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 78.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.58×
• Total profit: $62,673
• Equity at exit: $9,319

10-year hold

• IRR: 82.0%
• Equity multiple: 9.48×
• Total profit: $148,322
• Equity at exit: $5,404

Cash invested: $17,500 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State South Dakota: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; mostly landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 57783

• Active inventory: 288
• Price-to-rent: 2.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,937 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$328
• Tax from tax record: −$34 /mo · $405/yr
• Insurance: −$26
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$407
• Net cashflow: $1,143

Break-even live

Break-even rent $491

Max offer price $62,500

Occupancy floor 36%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,178	-5% $1,161	+0% $1,143	+5% $1,125	+10% $1,108
Rent	-10% $990	-5% $1,066	+0% $1,143	+5% $1,220	+10% $1,296
Rate	-1.0pp $1,174	-0.5pp $1,159	base $1,143	+0.5pp $1,127	+1.0pp $1,110

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $15,625
• Closing costs: $1,875
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $62,500 Active 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on marketlisting id $62,500 Active 1 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $62,500 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $62,500 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $62,500 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   pricedays on marketlisting id $62,500 Active 2 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $60,000 Active 22 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $60,000 Active 21 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $60,000 Active 20 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $60,000 Active 18 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $60,000 Active 16 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $60,000 Active 15 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $60,000 Active 14 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $60,000 Active 13 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $60,000 Active 12 DOM
16. 2026-05-19
    listed $60,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast SD · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $405 · $34/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $819 · $68/mo
• Expected delta: +$414/yr (+$34/mo · 102.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,249
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,501
• − Property taxes: −$405
• − Insurance: −$312
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,860
• − Management: −$1,860
• − Depreciation: −$1,818
• Taxable income: $13,492
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,238
• After-tax cash flow: $10,478/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Spearfish School District 40-2
• NCES district ID: 4666930
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $43,524
• Composite: 42.54/100
• National rank: #3199
• State rank: #32 of 59 in SD

Livability — Spearfish

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #83
• US rank: #9525

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment C+ Housing A- Health & safety B- User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Spearfish, SD
• County: Lawrence County · 17,248 people
• City population: 17,248
• Metro: Spearfish, SD
• Population (ZIP): 17,248
• Household income: $74,844
• Rent vs Own: 41.4% rent · 58.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 580.0

Population outlook (Lawrence County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 27,092 people
• By 2030: 28,137 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 29,908 · +10.4%
• By 2050: 31,789 · +17.3%
• By 2075: 38,917 · +43.6%
• By 2100: 50,407 · +86.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Native American 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 12% Iranian 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lawrence

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.3) · D 32.9% · R 64.3% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: -15.4pp · 2024: -31.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.3 2020: R+30.5 2016: R+34.2 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+15.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -174.59%
• Current HPI: 206.2001
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Spearfish, SD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 0.70%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in SD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Utilities	1	$1B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Listed $60,000 FSBO.com

Property tax history

+7.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $405 · -1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.