604 Wexford · Cut and Shoot, TX 77303

$169,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,536 sqft · Manufactured public records · 94 Days on market

Built 2016 Good condition 0.39 ac lot $111/sqft · 11% above area Est $153k · 11% over ↓ 17% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.0/30.0
• DSCR +8.2/10.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• ARV discount +2.5/15.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home situated on a spacious 0.39-acre lot in Conroe, Texas. This home features a bright and open living area that flows seamlessly into the kitchen, complete with modern appliances and plenty of space for gathering. Enjoy the beautiful outdoor setting, perfect for entertaining, relaxing, or creating your own backyard retreat. Conveniently located near downtown Conroe, offering easy access to local shopping, dining, and entertainment while still providing a peaceful setting.

Key facts

• Bright living area
• Modern appliances
• Spacious lot

Tags

• SPACIOUS LOT
• BRIGHT LIVING AREA
• MODERN APPLIANCES
• OUTDOOR SETTING
• BACKYARD RETREAT
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $170k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $372 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
• Recommended offer: $155k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 4.8% in Cut and Shoot — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,326 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime D-, amenities F.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 714 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 94 days — a 9% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $154,609 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 94 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.38%
• DSCR: 1.42
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $152,900
• List price: $169,900
• Delta: 11.12%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
538 Draylon Dr	0.59mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,456 (-5%)	1mo	$152,900	$105	58
16126 Tree Monkey Rd	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,736 (+13%)	7mo	$429,000	$247	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-9,577
• Equity at exit: $25,333

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.00×
• Total profit: $19
• Equity at exit: $14,690

Cash invested: $47,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77303

• Home prices YoY: -22.4%
• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 714
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,967 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$220 /mo · $2,646/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$413
• Net cashflow: $372

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,496

Max offer price $169,900

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $468	-5% $420	+0% $372	+5% $324	+10% $276
Rent	-10% $216	-5% $294	+0% $372	+5% $450	+10% $527
Rate	-1.0pp $457	-0.5pp $415	base $372	+0.5pp $328	+1.0pp $283

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,475
• Closing costs: $5,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
343 Parkin Ct Cut and Shoot, TX	3.0	2.0	2014	$1,985	$0.99	44d	1	0.46mi
2140 Cedar Bend Dr Conroe, TX	4.0	3.0	1871	$1,995	$1.07	10d	1	1.20mi
2221 Cedar Valley Dr Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1920	$1,695	$0.88	44d	1	1.21mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $169,900 Active 94 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $169,900 Active 93 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $169,900 Active 92 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $169,900 Active 91 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $169,900 Active 89 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $169,900 Active 85 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $169,900 Active 84 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $169,900 Active 83 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $169,900 Active 80 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $169,900 Active 79 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $169,900 Active 78 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $169,900 Active 77 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $169,900 Active 76 DOM
14. 2026-04-07
    price $169,900 518-char remark

    Show marketing remark (518 chars)

    Charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home situated on a spacious 0.39-acre lot in Conroe, Texas. This home features a bright and open living area that flows seamlessly into the kitchen, complete with modern appliances and plenty of space for gathering. Enjoy the beautiful outdoor setting, perfect for entertaining, relaxing, or creating your own backyard retreat. Conveniently located near downtown Conroe, offering easy access to local shopping, dining, and entertainment while still providing a peaceful setting.

15. 2026-03-16
    listed $195,000 New 518-char remark

    Show marketing remark (518 chars)

    Charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home situated on a spacious 0.39-acre lot in Conroe, Texas. This home features a bright and open living area that flows seamlessly into the kitchen, complete with modern appliances and plenty of space for gathering. Enjoy the beautiful outdoor setting, perfect for entertaining, relaxing, or creating your own backyard retreat. Conveniently located near downtown Conroe, offering easy access to local shopping, dining, and entertainment while still providing a peaceful setting.

16. 2026-01-29
    listed $199,000 Active
17. 2025-10-09
    historical
18. 2025-07-04
    price $199,900
19. 2025-04-16
    listed $205,000 New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,646 · $220/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,109 · $259/mo
• Expected delta: +$464/yr (+$39/mo · 17.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,607
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,517
• − Property taxes: −$2,646
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,889
• − Management: −$1,889
• − Depreciation: −$4,943
• Taxable income: $1,875
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$450
• After-tax cash flow: $4,012/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home is in good condition with minimal repairs needed. It offers a bright and open living area, modern appliances, and a spacious yard perfect for outdoor activities. With some cosmetic updates, it can significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and creates a more inviting environment
• Both New flooring in high-traffic areas — Improves aesthetics and reduces maintenance
• Both New kitchen appliances — Modernizes the space and improves functionality

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and creates a more inviting environment ↑
• Both New flooring in high-traffic areas — Improves aesthetics and reduces maintenance ↑
• Both New kitchen appliances — Modernizes the space and improves functionality ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cut and Shoot

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1326
• US rank: #22835

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,854
• Household income: $75,348
• Rent vs Own: 25.8% rent · 74.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 464.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 17% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 31%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -77.71%
• Current HPI: 269.5367
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.31%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-17.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $169,900 LERA
• 2026-03-16 Listed $195,000 LERA
• 2026-01-29 Listed $199,000 LAAR
• 2025-10-09 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2025-07-04 Price Changed $199,900 LERA
• 2025-04-16 Listed $205,000 LERA

Property tax history

+85.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,646 · -16.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.