505 Colt Dr · Forney, TX 75126

$299,999

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,510 sqft · SingleFamily · 4 Days on market

Built 2002 Good condition 6,739 sqft lot Est $371k · 19% under $21/mo HOA · 1% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.3/30.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

From the moment you step inside, you’ll feel right at home in this beautifully updated 4-bedroom, 2.5-bath home in Mustang Creek. Offering over 2,500 square feet of living space, this home has been thoughtfully updated and maintained, making it truly move-in ready. The heart of the home is the stunning remodeled kitchen featuring updated countertops, professionally painted cabinetry, custom backsplash, under-cabinet lighting, a new oven (2026) and a new dishwasher (2025). Whether you’re preparing weeknight dinners or hosting holiday gatherings, this kitchen is designed to bring everyone together. The kitchen flows seamlessly into the spacious family room where a gorgeous stone f

Key facts

• Renovated bathroom
• Remodeled kitchen
• Detached workshop

Tags

• REMODELED KITCHEN
• STONE FIREPLACE
• RENOVATED BATHROOM
• OVERSIZED COVERED PATIO
• DETACHED WORKSHOP

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in the Mustang Creek subdivision
• HOA & community: Mandatory association; Semi-annual HOA fee; HOA covers grounds maintenance and management fees; Managed by Texas Star Community Management

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with garage door opener (garage faces front); 2 covered parking spaces; Driveway
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Natural gas available; Cable available
• Home design: Single-family residence; Two levels; Residential property
• Construction: Built in 2002; Block construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Covered porch(es); Wood fencing; Interior lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Granite countertops; Breakfast bar; Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave; Disposal
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms total; Primary bedroom on level 1 with dual sinks, ensuite bath, garden tub, separate shower, and walk-in closet(s); Additional bedrooms on level 2
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central air (electric); Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Cable TV available; Eat-in kitchen; Granite counters; Walk-in closets; Window coverings; Two living areas; Two dining areas; Fireplace (brick, gas)
• Laundry & utility: Full-size washer/dryer area; Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Utility room / laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $300k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-111 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $284k (5.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $251k (16.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $251k (16.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.1% in Forney — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#98 in TX, #3,339 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute F.
• Forney ISD (rural): math 41% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #234 of 826 in TX (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Criswell El (math 41% / reading 50%, grade D-, #1,112 of 4,322 statewide, top 26%, 807 students, 50% FRL); Brown Middle (math 29% / reading 39%, grade F, #892 of 1,662 statewide, top 55%, 673 students, 56% FRL); North Forney H S (math 32% / reading 45%, grade F, #866 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 2,502 students, 49% FRL) — zoned schools average 52% FRL vs 26% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 2200 active listings in the ZIP; 35 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,747 units permitted in Kaufman County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kaufman County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $251,085 (16.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.85%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.58%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $371,480
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
221 Wolf Dr	0.41mi	4/2.5	2,510 (0%)	1mo	$320,000	$127	80
100 Patriot Pkwy	0.40mi	4/2.0	2,316 (-8%)	1mo	$350,000	$151	66
539 San Angelo Dr	0.65mi	4/3.0	2,484 (-1%)	3mo	$434,025	$175	64
506 Fort Davis Dr	0.69mi	4/2.5	2,543 (+1%)	2mo	$399,090	$157	64
112 Garner Ct	0.56mi	4/2.5	2,350 (-6%)	0mo	$305,000	$130	63
512 Pinnacles Ct	0.70mi	4/3.5	2,505 (-0%)	2mo	$434,356	$173	61
212 Painted Trl	0.74mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,494 (-1%)	3mo	$369,990	$148	55
232 Cisco Trl	0.68mi	4/2.5	2,691 (+7%)	2mo	$394,990	$147	54
120 Big Bend Dr	0.53mi	4/2.5	2,152 (-14%)	2mo	$295,000	$137	50
229 Cisco Trl	0.68mi	4/3.0	2,756 (+10%)	2mo	$399,900	$145	48
510 Fort Davis Dr	0.72mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,322 (-8%)	2mo	$384,525	$166	47
216 Freedom Trl	0.56mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,778 (+11%)	4mo	$409,990	$148	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-59,540
• Equity at exit: $44,731

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.09×
• Total profit: $-76,336
• Equity at exit: $25,938

Cash invested: $84,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75126

• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 2200
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,511 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$375 /mo · $4,500/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$21
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$527
• Net cashflow: $-111

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,651

Max offer price $283,987

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $97	-5% $-7	+0% $-111	+5% $-214	+10% $-318
Rent	-10% $-309	-5% $-210	+0% $-111	+5% $-11	+10% $88
Rate	-1.0pp $40	-0.5pp $-34	base $-111	+0.5pp $-188	+1.0pp $-267

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,000
• Closing costs: $9,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 35 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
110 Meadow Ct Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1840	$1,783	$0.97	0d	1	0.09mi
501 Branch St Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	2130	$2,270	$1.07	0d	1	0.12mi
315 Forestwood Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2102	$2,085	$0.99	26d	1	0.20mi
507 Thunder Trl Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1800	$2,300	$1.28	0d	1	0.20mi
213 Long Prairie Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	1964	$2,025	$1.03	18d	1	0.29mi
236 Archer Way Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	2016	$2,300	$1.14	20d	1	0.41mi
502 Ponderosa Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	2131	$2,145	$1.01	0d	1	0.42mi
108 Antler Trl Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2250	$2,449	$1.09	26d	1	0.46mi
511 Rosewood Ln Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1900	$2,070	$1.09	23d	1	0.51mi
120 Garner Ct Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	2214	$2,500	$1.13	45d	1	0.53mi
280 Cisco Trl Forney, TX	5.0	3.0	2476	$3,800	$1.53	26d	1	0.54mi
293 Arbury Dr Forney, TX	4.0	3.5	2928	$2,590	$0.88	9d	1	0.61mi
293 Arbury Dr Forney, TX	4.0	3.5	2928	$2,801	$0.96	26d	1	0.61mi
1124 Longhorn Ln Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2093	$2,500	$1.19	26d	1	0.68mi
100 Acadia Ln Forney, TX	5.0	4.5	3216	$2,850	$0.89	9d	1	0.71mi
209 Chesapeake Dr Forney, TX	4.0	3.5	2950	$3,400	$1.15	45d	1	0.74mi
2201 Woodberry Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1839	$2,050	$1.11	45d	1	0.75mi
130 Monument Dr Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	2748	$3,499	$1.27	26d	1	0.77mi
236 Pennridge Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1871	$2,295	$1.23	26d	1	0.79mi
2105 Cardinal Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1763	$2,200	$1.25	23d	1	0.84mi
2221 Overton Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	3596	$2,649	$0.74	45d	1	0.90mi
2127 Pecan Ridge Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	2113	$2,100	$0.99	45d	1	0.92mi
106 Painted Trl Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2926	$2,395	$0.82	45d	1	0.99mi
106 Painted Trl Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2926	$2,725	$0.93	14d	1	0.99mi
525 Ardsley Ln Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1775	$2,395	$1.35	0d	1	1.05mi
534 Tuscany Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2069	$2,500	$1.21	45d	1	1.12mi
1410 Crossford Trl Forney, TX	3.0	2.5	2707	$2,650	$0.98	3d	1	1.13mi
2239 Heaton Forney, TX	5.0	2.5	2780	$3,299	$1.19	19d	1	1.15mi
1408 Grove Pond Rd Forney, TX	4.0	3.5	2543	$3,095	$1.22	45d	1	1.16mi
2225 Heaton Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1909	$2,150	$1.13	45d	1	1.17mi
114 Cole St Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	2603	$2,529	$0.97	23d	1	1.17mi
2213 Heaton Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	2146	$2,395	$1.12	9d	1	1.19mi
2213 Heaton Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	2146	$2,395	$1.12	18d	1	1.19mi
635 Brockwell Bnd Forney, TX	4.0	3.0	2506	$3,300	$1.32	21d	1	1.43mi
1108 Redcoat Dr , TX	3.0	2.0	1800	$2,250	$1.25	6d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $21 · $252/yr

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $299,999 Active 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   remarks 687-char remark
3. 2026-06-17
   listed $299,999 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,130
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,805
• − Property taxes: −$4,500
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,410
• − Management: −$2,410
• − HOA: −$252
• − Depreciation: −$8,727
• Taxable loss: −$6,474
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,554
• After-tax cash flow: $226/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This move-in ready home features a beautifully updated kitchen and well-maintained exterior, making it an attractive option for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property.
• Both Replace light fixtures — Modernizes the home and improves curb appeal.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property. ↑
• Both Replace light fixtures — Modernizes the home and improves curb appeal. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Forney ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819560
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $86,679
• Composite: 40.07/100
• National rank: #3812
• State rank: #234 of 826 in TX

Livability — Forney

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #98
• US rank: #3339

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Forney, TX
• County: Kaufman County · 122,338 people
• City population: 84,799
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,799
• Household income: $103,673
• Rent vs Own: 19.5% rent · 80.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1306.0

Population outlook (Kaufman County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,716 people
• By 2030: 150,815 · +8.7%
• By 2040: 174,877 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 198,020 · +42.8%
• By 2075: 251,908 · +81.6%
• By 2100: 285,325 · +105.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Black 25% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 14% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 14% Arabic 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kaufman

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.9) · D 35.6% · R 63.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.9pp toward D · 2008: -35.8pp · 2024: -27.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.9 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+47.0 2012: R+44.4 2008: R+35.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.93%
• Current HPI: 148.5749
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.42%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Listed $299,999 NTREIS