15 S Seas Ct · Barnegat, NJ 08005

$219,990

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 818 sqft · Condo public records · 62 Days on market

Built 1974 $269/sqft · 8% below area Est $239k · 8% under $200/mo HOA · 9% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.6/30.0
• ARV discount +11.2/15.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this inviting 1-bedroom, 1-bathroom condo in the highly desirable Crosswinds community. Thoughtfully maintained, this home offers a warm and comfortable living space perfect for both relaxing evenings and everyday living. The open-concept layout creates a seamless flow between the living, dining, and kitchen areas, making the space feel bright, functional, and ideal for entertaining. Enjoy the ease of low-maintenance living along with community amenities, including a sparkling pool perfect for summer days. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and major highways, this condo presents an excellent opportunity for first-time buyers, downsizers, or anyone looking for an affordable home in a prime location.

Key facts

• Community amenities
• Conveniently located
• Open-concept layout

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• LOW-MAINTENANCE LIVING
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $171 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $220k).
• Recommended offer: $207k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 3.6% in Barnegat — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#310 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Barnegat Township School District (suburban): math 23% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #285 of 472 in NJ (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 253 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($94k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($207k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $220k implies a 175% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $206,790 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.34%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $239,444
• List price: $219,990
• Delta: -8.12%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-24,605
• Equity at exit: $32,801

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.89×
• Total profit: $-6,834
• Equity at exit: $19,021

Cash invested: $61,597 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08005

• Active inventory: 253
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,345 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax from tax record: −$236 /mo · $2,827/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$200
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$492
• Net cashflow: $171

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,128

Max offer price $219,990

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,998
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
39 Mediterranean Ct Barnegat, NJ	2.0	1.0	698	$2,550	$3.65	18d	1	0.14mi
900 Barnegat Blvd N Barnegat, NJ	2.0	1.0–2.5	1096	$2,310	$2.11	1d	6	0.75mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $200 · $2,400/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   status $219,990 Pending 62 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $219,990 Active 62 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $219,990 Active 61 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $219,990 Active 60 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $219,990 Active 59 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $219,990 Active 57 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $219,990 Active 56 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $219,990 Active 53 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $219,990 Active 52 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $219,990 Active 51 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $219,990 Active 48 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $219,990 Active 47 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $219,990 Active 46 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $219,990 Active 45 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $219,990 Active 44 DOM
16. 2026-05-14
    price $219,990 728-char remark

    Show marketing remark (728 chars)

    Welcome to this inviting 1-bedroom, 1-bathroom condo in the highly desirable Crosswinds community. Thoughtfully maintained, this home offers a warm and comfortable living space perfect for both relaxing evenings and everyday living. The open-concept layout creates a seamless flow between the living, dining, and kitchen areas, making the space feel bright, functional, and ideal for entertaining. Enjoy the ease of low-maintenance living along with community amenities, including a sparkling pool perfect for summer days. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and major highways, this condo presents an excellent opportunity for first-time buyers, downsizers, or anyone looking for an affordable home in a prime location.

17. 2026-04-17
    listed $224,990 Active 728-char remark

    Show marketing remark (728 chars)

    Welcome to this inviting 1-bedroom, 1-bathroom condo in the highly desirable Crosswinds community. Thoughtfully maintained, this home offers a warm and comfortable living space perfect for both relaxing evenings and everyday living. The open-concept layout creates a seamless flow between the living, dining, and kitchen areas, making the space feel bright, functional, and ideal for entertaining. Enjoy the ease of low-maintenance living along with community amenities, including a sparkling pool perfect for summer days. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and major highways, this condo presents an excellent opportunity for first-time buyers, downsizers, or anyone looking for an affordable home in a prime location.

18. 1988-05-13
    soldstatus $80,000
19. 1988-05-13
    soldstatus $80,000
20. 1982-07-01
    soldstatus $29,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,827 · $236/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,152 · $346/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,325/yr (+$110/mo · 46.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 48% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,134
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$2,827
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,251
• − Management: −$2,251
• − HOA: −$2,400
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable loss: −$1,417
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$340
• After-tax cash flow: $2,395/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Barnegat Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3416470
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $63,645
• Composite: 31.15/100
• National rank: #6059
• State rank: #285 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Barnegat

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #310
• US rank: #9556

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Ocean County · 439,426 people
• City population: 26,866
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 26,866
• Household income: $93,584
• Rent vs Own: 11.4% rent · 88.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 384.0

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Scotch-Irish 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -204.01%
• Current HPI: 344.3189
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+645.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $219,990 MOMLS
• 2026-04-17 Listed $224,990 MOMLS
• 1988-05-13 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records
• 1988-05-13 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records
• 1982-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $29,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,827 · +3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.