5103 Ridge Rd · Williamson, NY 14589

$155,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,664 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1910 0.43 ac lot Est $171k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.7/30.0
• ARV discount +11.8/15.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

GORGEOUS ORIGINAL WOODWORK, WINDOW SEATS, POCKET DOORS, BANISTERS AND MORE THROUGHOUT ! GLEAMING HARDWOODS ! UPDATES include 1ST FLOOR LAUNDRY & FULL BATH, ELECTRICAL & PLUMBING ! LARGE ROOMS THROUGHOUT - EAT - IN KITCHEN W/ BEAUTIFUL TWO SIDED WOOD PANTRY ! FORMAL DINING, LIVING ROOM plus HUGE PARLOR STYLE ENTRY (Could be used as additional living Rm, office etc. .. ) & FULL ENCLOSED PORCH ! SPACIOUS REAR YARD BACKING TO TREES !

Key facts

• Natural woodwork
• Hardwood flooring
• Pocket doors

Tags

• ENCLOSED FRONT PORCH
• NATURAL WOODWORK
• POCKET DOORS
• OVERSIZED WINDOW LEDGES
• HARDWOOD FLOORING
• FORMAL LIVING SPACE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; One garage space
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Public water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Two-story home; Resale property
• Construction: Composite siding; Block foundation; Existing (previously built) structure
• Exterior features: Deck; Gravel driveway; Rectangular lot with dimensions 104 x 118; Road frontage on a main thoroughfare

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Bedrooms present (total rooms: 8)
• Flooring: Hardwood flooring; Varied flooring
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One half bathroom; One main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Gas heating; Hot water heat
• Interior features: Formal living room; Formal dining room; Entrance foyer; Country-style kitchen; Full basement (finished as recreation space)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Main-level laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $11 ($131/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $155k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#141 in NY, #2,196 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F.
• Williamson Central School District (rural): math 51% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #363 of 590 in NY (top 62%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Williamson Elementary School (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,444 of 2,108 statewide, top 71%, 421 students, 48% FRL); Williamson Middle School (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D+, #315 of 729 statewide, top 45%, 279 students, 52% FRL); Williamson Senior High School (math 98% / reading 90%, grade A+, #124 of 1,100 statewide, top 12%, 291 students, 57% FRL) — zoned schools average 53% FRL vs 29% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 34 active listings in the ZIP; 259 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (90 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wayne County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $67k; list at $155k implies a 132% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price; built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $155,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.30%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $171,392
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5116 Ridge Rd	0.04mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,752 (+5%)	12mo	$180,000	$103	72

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-24,288
• Equity at exit: $23,111

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-19,717
• Equity at exit: $13,402

Cash invested: $43,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14589

• Home prices YoY: -19.4%
• Active inventory: 34
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,591 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax from tax record: −$369 /mo · $4,426/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$334
• Net cashflow: $11

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,578

Max offer price $155,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $99	-5% $55	+0% $11	+5% $-33	+10% $-77
Rent	-10% $-115	-5% $-52	+0% $11	+5% $74	+10% $137
Rate	-1.0pp $89	-0.5pp $50	base $11	+0.5pp $-29	+1.0pp $-70

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,750
• Closing costs: $4,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-19
   listed $155,000 Active
2. 2013-10-07
   soldstatus $66,950
3. 2013-10-04
   soldstatus $66,950 450-char remark

   Show marketing remark (450 chars)

   GORGEOUS ORIGINAL WOODWORK, WINDOW SEATS, POCKET DOORS, BANISTERS AND MORE THROUGHOUT ! GLEAMING HARDWOODS ! UPDATES include 1ST FLOOR LAUNDRY & FULL BATH, ELECTRICAL & PLUMBING ! LARGE ROOMS THROUGHOUT - EAT - IN KITCHEN W/ BEAUTIFUL TWO SIDED WOOD PANTRY ! FORMAL DINING, LIVING ROOM plus HUGE PARLOR STYLE ENTRY (Could be used as additional living Rm, office etc. .. ) & FULL ENCLOSED PORCH ! SPACIOUS REAR YARD BACKING TO TREES !

4. 2013-06-03
   listed $69,900 450-char remark

   Show marketing remark (450 chars)

   GORGEOUS ORIGINAL WOODWORK, WINDOW SEATS, POCKET DOORS, BANISTERS AND MORE THROUGHOUT ! GLEAMING HARDWOODS ! UPDATES include 1ST FLOOR LAUNDRY & FULL BATH, ELECTRICAL & PLUMBING ! LARGE ROOMS THROUGHOUT - EAT - IN KITCHEN W/ BEAUTIFUL TWO SIDED WOOD PANTRY ! FORMAL DINING, LIVING ROOM plus HUGE PARLOR STYLE ENTRY (Could be used as additional living Rm, office etc. .. ) & FULL ENCLOSED PORCH ! SPACIOUS REAR YARD BACKING TO TREES !

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,426 · $369/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,426 · $369/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,097
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,682
• − Property taxes: −$4,426
• − Insurance: −$775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,528
• − Management: −$1,528
• − Depreciation: −$4,509
• Taxable loss: −$2,351
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$564
• After-tax cash flow: $696/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Williamson Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3631440
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $56,080
• Composite: 43.79/100
• National rank: #2937
• State rank: #363 of 590 in NY

Livability — Williamson

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #141
• US rank: #2196

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,904

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 85,662 people
• By 2030: 81,945 · -4.3%
• By 2040: 73,735 · -13.9%
• By 2050: 65,029 · -24.1%
• By 2075: 47,451 · -44.6%
• By 2100: 31,574 · -63.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 13% Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Arabic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.1) · D 38.5% · R 61.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.2pp toward R · 2008: -9.9pp · 2024: -23.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.1 2020: R+19.6 2016: R+26.1 2012: R+9.3 2008: R+9.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.43%
• Current HPI: 234.0889
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+121.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Listed $155,000 CNYIS
• 2013-10-07 Sold (Public Records) $66,950 Public Records
• 2013-10-04 Sold (MLS) $66,950 UNYREIS
• 2013-06-03 Listed $69,900 UNYREIS

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,426 · +3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.