Contour Plan · Ave Maria, FL 34142

$349,990

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,405 sqft · SingleFamily · 163 Days on market

Excellent condition 2-car garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.0/10.0
• Cash flow +4.8/30.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

A formal entryway introduces Contour, offering views to the gathering room and kitchen with huge island. The efficient, open floor plan provides ample dining areas, making everyday living and entertaining easy. Singles and couples alike feel right at home in the single-story Contour, especially in the large owner's suite with walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Formal entryway
• Gathering room

Tags

• FORMAL ENTRYWAY
• GATHERING ROOM
• HUGE ISLAND
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• AMPLE DINING AREAS
• LARGE OWNER'S SUITE

🏗️ New construction. The $349,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $423,310.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $350k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-14k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $250k (28.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $238k (31.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $238k (31.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Estates Elementary School (math 70% / reading 67%, grade B+, #409 of 2,144 statewide, top 20%, 862 students, 53% FRL); Corkscrew Middle School (math 68% / reading 59%, grade B+, #109 of 571 statewide, top 19%, 958 students, 43% FRL); Palmetto Ridge High School (math 43% / reading 51%, grade D-, #207 of 667 statewide, top 32%, 2,347 students, 38% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 695 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 51d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 55% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,383/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($62k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.1%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 163 days — a 12% lower offer ($308k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $152/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AH (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $238,305 (31.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 163 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.56% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.34%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.56%
• DSCR: 0.53
• GRM: 14.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $423,310
• List price: $349,990
• Delta: -17.32%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6384 Honor Way	0.22mi	2/2.0	1,405 (0%)	0mo	$380,000	$270	90
6195 Revelry Ct	0.40mi	2/2.0	1,405 (0%)	0mo	$375,000	$267	81
6191 Revelry Ct	0.40mi	2/2.0	1,405 (0%)	4mo	$398,000	$283	78
6174 Revelry Ct	0.36mi	2/2.0	1,405 (0%)	7mo	$400,000	$285	77
6423 Memorial Ln	0.37mi	2/2.0	1,448 (+3%)	2mo	$338,000	$233	76
6203 Revelry Ct	0.42mi	2/2.0	1,419 (+1%)	5mo	$375,000	$264	74
6125 Triumph Ln	0.29mi	2/2.0	1,554 (+11%)	5mo	$399,000	$257	65
6126 Triumph Ln	0.25mi	2/2.0	1,554 (+11%)	9mo	$340,000	$219	63
6407 Memorial Ln	0.66mi	2/2.0	1,448 (+3%)	3mo	$320,000	$221	61
6410 Memorial Ln	0.66mi	2/2.0	1,448 (+3%)	6mo	$286,000	$198	59
6188 Liberty St	0.75mi	2/2.0	1,405 (0%)	8mo	$419,000	$298	58
7933 Guadiana Way	0.70mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,437 (+2%)	3mo	$315,000	$219	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.05% appreciation · 2.95% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.08×
• Total profit: $-108,883
• Equity at exit: $101,203

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.34×
• Total profit: $-159,236
• Equity at exit: $105,438

Cash invested: $118,527 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 30 active · 24 under contract
• Months of supply: 7.5 mo (13%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $374,450 ($245/sqft)
• Median days on market: 133 d
• This list price: 23% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +23.0% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 34142

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 695
• Price-to-rent: 12.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,383 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,220
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$529 /mo · $6,350/yr
• Insurance: −$176
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$152 /mo · $1,824/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$500
• Net cashflow: $-1,195

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,895

Max offer price $250,416

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-902	-5% $-1,049	+0% $-1,195	+5% $-1,341	+10% $-1,487
Rent	-10% $-1,383	-5% $-1,289	+0% $-1,195	+5% $-1,101	+10% $-1,007
Rate	-1.0pp $-982	-0.5pp $-1,087	base $-1,195	+0.5pp $-1,305	+1.0pp $-1,416

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $105,827
• Closing costs: $12,699
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6168 Harmony Dr Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1570	$5,495	$3.50	10d	1	0.34mi
6168 Harmony Dr Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1570	$5,495	$3.50	21d	1	0.34mi
6160 Harmony Dr Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1558	$6,295	$4.04	51d	1	0.34mi
6160 Harmony Dr Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1558	$6,295	$4.04	10d	1	0.34mi
6189 Harmony Dr Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1558	$6,295	$4.04	21d	1	0.37mi
6189 Harmony Dr Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1558	$6,295	$4.04	6d	1	0.37mi
6205 Harmony Dr Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1558	$5,000	$3.21	10d	1	0.39mi
6441 Liberty St Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1685	$5,795	$3.44	164d	1	0.64mi
6441 Liberty St Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1685	$2,995	$1.78	10d	1	0.64mi
5988 Mayflower Way Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1602	$5,200	$3.25	10d	1	0.73mi
5988 Mayflower Way Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1602	$5,200	$3.25	164d	1	0.73mi
5935 Mayflower Way Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1460	$2,550	$1.75	51d	1	0.83mi
5935 Mayflower Way Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1460	$2,550	$1.75	164d	1	0.83mi
8010 Helena Ct Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1554	$4,000	$2.57	51d	1	0.83mi
8010 Helena Ct Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1554	$2,500	$1.61	6d	1	0.83mi
5784 Declaration Ct Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1416	$2,295	$1.62	37d	1	0.88mi
5651 Double Eagle Cir #4338 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1301	$6,295	$4.84	164d	1	0.89mi
5807 Double Eagle Cir #4627 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1154	$7,000	$6.07	51d	1	0.89mi
5651 Double Eagle Cir #4316 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1154	$5,495	$4.76	164d	1	0.89mi
5445 Double Eagle Cir #3011 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1569	$2,495	$1.59	164d	1	0.89mi
5629 Double Eagle Cir #4223 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1154	$2,395	$2.08	164d	1	0.89mi
5835 Double Eagle Cir #4726 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1154	$2,095	$1.82	154d	1	0.89mi
5629 Double Eagle Cir #4218 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1301	$6,295	$4.84	164d	1	0.89mi
5769 Mayflower Way Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1554	$4,000	$2.57	10d	1	0.96mi
5769 Mayflower Way Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1554	$4,000	$2.57	164d	1	0.96mi
5705 Mayflower Way #1407 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1536	$2,250	$1.46	164d	1	0.96mi
5698 Mayflower Way #405 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1868	$5,495	$2.94	10d	1	1.00mi
5698 Mayflower Way #405 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1868	$5,495	$2.94	51d	1	1.00mi
6082 National Blvd Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1366	$4,145	$3.03	51d	3	1.01mi
6082 National Blvd Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1366	$4,145	$3.03	164d	2	1.01mi
6082 National Blvd Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1366	$2,148	$1.57	1d	2	1.01mi
5697 Mayflower Way Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1538	$2,495	$1.62	10d	1	1.02mi
5690 Mayflower Way #601 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1815	$5,500	$3.03	10d	1	1.05mi
5690 Mayflower Way Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1815	$3,295	$1.82	10d	1	1.05mi
6023 Ellerston Way #1823 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1366	$6,295	$4.61	51d	1	1.05mi
6023 Ellerston Way #1823 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1695	$2,995	$1.77	10d	1	1.05mi
5682 Mayflower Way #806 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1457	$4,995	$3.43	10d	1	1.10mi
5909 Berwick Ln Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1850	$10,995	$5.94	10d	1	1.10mi
6058 National Blvd Ave Maria, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1210	$2,995	$2.47	164d	2	1.12mi
6058 National Blvd #335 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1120	$5,795	$5.17	154d	1	1.12mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $349,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family planAddress: Ave Maria, FL
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,405

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan: Contour (new construction)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $349,990 Active 163 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $349,990 Active 162 DOM
3. 2026-11-07
   days on market $349,990 Active 161 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $349,990 Active 160 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $349,990 Active 159 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $349,990 Active 157 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $349,990 Active 156 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $349,990 Active 155 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $349,990 Active 154 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $349,990 Active 153 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $349,990 Active 152 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $349,990 Active 151 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $349,990 Active 150 DOM
14. 2026-10-25
    days on market $349,990 Active 149 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $349,990 Active 148 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $349,990 Active 147 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $349,990 Active 146 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $349,990 Active 145 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $349,990 Active 144 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $349,990 Active 143 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $349,990 Active 142 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $349,990 Active 141 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $349,990 Active 140 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $349,990 Active 139 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $349,990 Active 138 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $349,990 Active 137 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $349,990 Active 136 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $349,990 Active 135 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $349,990 Active 134 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $349,990 Active 133 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $349,990 Active 132 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $349,990 Active 131 DOM
33. 2026-10-07
    days on market $349,990 Active 130 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $349,990 Active 129 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $349,990 Active 128 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $349,990 Active 127 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $349,990 Active 126 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $349,990 Active 125 DOM
39. 2026-09-29
    days on market $349,990 Active 123 DOM
40. 2026-09-28
    days on market $349,990 Active 122 DOM
41. 2026-09-26
    days on market $349,990 Active 120 DOM
42. 2026-09-25
    days on market $349,990 Active 119 DOM
43. 2026-09-24
    days on market $349,990 Active 118 DOM
44. 2026-09-23
    days on market $349,990 Active 117 DOM
45. 2026-09-22
    days on market $349,990 Active 116 DOM
46. 2026-09-20
    days on market $349,990 Active 114 DOM
47. 2026-09-18
    days on market $349,990 Active 112 DOM
48. 2026-09-17
    days on market $349,990 Active 111 DOM
49. 2026-09-16
    days on market $349,990 Active 110 DOM
50. 2026-09-15
    days on market $349,990 Active 109 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone AH · 12% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,597
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,712
• − Property taxes: −$6,350
• − Insurance: −$3,941
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,288
• − Management: −$2,288
• − Depreciation: −$12,314
• Taxable loss: −$22,296
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,351
• After-tax cash flow: $-8,987/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This single-story home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a good return on investment with updates that can increase its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and can add value ↑
• Both Replace landscaping — Fresh greenery can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers ↑
• Resale Upgrade kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can increase the home's appeal to potential buyers ↑
• Both Install smart home features — Smart home features can increase convenience and add value ↑
• Both Add a smart thermostat — A smart thermostat can improve energy efficiency and add value ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 60/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Estates Elementary School B+ FL #409/2,144 Nat'l #4,125/41,679 Middle Corkscrew Middle School B+ FL #109/571 Nat'l #1,406/14,009 High Palmetto Ridge High School D- FL #207/667 Nat'l #6,330/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Collier
• NCES district ID: 1200330
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,275
• Composite: 50.23/100
• National rank: #1892
• State rank: #16 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ave Maria

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ave Maria, FL
• County: Collier County · 420,858 people
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• Population (ZIP): 35,149
• Household income: $62,333
• Rent vs Own: 48.7% rent · 51.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 12% of renters

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Population outlook (Collier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,858 people
• By 2030: 450,054 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 502,232 · +19.3%
• By 2050: 544,932 · +29.5%
• By 2075: 627,203 · +49.0%
• By 2100: 659,015 · +56.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 63% Two or more races 39% Black 19% White 16% Native American 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 43% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 2% Dominican 1%
• Languages at home: 34% English-only · Spanish 53% French/Haitian/Cajun 12%

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Political lean MEDSL · Collier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.1) · D 33.1% · R 66.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -33.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.1 2020: R+24.7 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+30.1 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.05%
• Current HPI: 226.9105
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.95%
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $349,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family planAddress: Ave Maria, FL
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,405

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan: Contour (new construction)