Contour Plan · Ave Maria, FL 34142

$349,990

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,405 sqft · SingleFamily · 71 Days on market

Excellent condition 2-car garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.0/10.0
• Cash flow +4.8/30.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

A formal entryway introduces Contour, offering views to the gathering room and kitchen with huge island. The efficient, open floor plan provides ample dining areas, making everyday living and entertaining easy. Singles and couples alike feel right at home in the single-story Contour, especially in the large owner's suite with walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Formal entryway
• Gathering room

Tags

• FORMAL ENTRYWAY
• GATHERING ROOM
• HUGE ISLAND
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• AMPLE DINING AREAS
• LARGE OWNER'S SUITE

🏗️ New construction. The $349,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $427,611.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $350k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-14k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $254k (27.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $241k (31.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $241k (31.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Estates Elementary School (math 70% / reading 67%, grade B+, #409 of 2,144 statewide, top 20%, 862 students, 53% FRL); Corkscrew Middle School (math 68% / reading 59%, grade B+, #109 of 571 statewide, top 19%, 958 students, 43% FRL); Palmetto Ridge High School (math 43% / reading 51%, grade D-, #207 of 667 statewide, top 32%, 2,347 students, 38% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 545 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 73d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,412/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($62k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.1%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($329k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $152/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AH (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $241,171 (31.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.56% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.35%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.52%
• DSCR: 0.53
• GRM: 14.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $427,611
• List price: $349,990
• Delta: -18.15%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6191 Revelry Ct	0.40mi	2/2.0	1,405 (0%)	1mo	$398,000	$283	81
6174 Revelry Ct	0.36mi	2/2.0	1,405 (0%)	4mo	$400,000	$285	80
6203 Revelry Ct	0.42mi	2/2.0	1,419 (+1%)	2mo	$375,000	$264	77
6125 Triumph Ln	0.29mi	2/2.0	1,554 (+11%)	2mo	$399,000	$257	67
6126 Triumph Ln	0.25mi	2/2.0	1,554 (+11%)	6mo	$340,000	$219	66
6407 Memorial Ln	0.66mi	2/2.0	1,448 (+3%)	0mo	$320,000	$221	64
6410 Memorial Ln	0.66mi	2/2.0	1,448 (+3%)	4mo	$286,000	$198	61
6188 Liberty St	0.75mi	2/2.0	1,405 (0%)	5mo	$419,000	$298	61
6152 Liberty St	0.75mi	2/2.0	1,405 (0%)	8mo	$378,000	$269	59
6392 Honor Way	0.75mi	2/2.0	1,405 (0%)	8mo	$389,326	$277	58
6219 Revelry Ct	0.45mi	2/2.0	1,535 (+9%)	10mo	$370,000	$241	55
6152 Harmony Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,558 (+11%)	9mo	$370,000	$237	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.05% appreciation · 2.95% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.08×
• Total profit: $-109,668
• Equity at exit: $102,231

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.34×
• Total profit: $-160,163
• Equity at exit: $106,510

Cash invested: $119,731 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 34 active · 14 under contract
• Months of supply: 11.3 mo (9%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $379,990 ($251/sqft)
• Median days on market: 90 d
• This list price: 21% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +21.0% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 34142

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 545
• Price-to-rent: 12.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,412 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,242
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$535 /mo · $6,414/yr
• Insurance: −$178
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$152 /mo · $1,824/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$506
• Net cashflow: $-1,202

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,933

Max offer price $253,693

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-906	-5% $-1,054	+0% $-1,202	+5% $-1,350	+10% $-1,497
Rent	-10% $-1,392	-5% $-1,297	+0% $-1,202	+5% $-1,107	+10% $-1,011
Rate	-1.0pp $-987	-0.5pp $-1,093	base $-1,202	+0.5pp $-1,313	+1.0pp $-1,425

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $106,903
• Closing costs: $12,828
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6168 Harmony Dr Immokalee, FL	3.0	2.0	1570	$5,495	$3.50	63d	1	0.34mi
6189 Harmony Dr Immokalee, FL	3.0	2.0	1558	$6,295	$4.04	72d	1	0.37mi
6205 Harmony Dr Immokalee, FL	3.0	2.0	1558	$5,000	$3.21	72d	1	0.39mi
6441 Liberty St Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1685	$5,795	$3.44	72d	1	0.64mi
5988 Mayflower Way Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1602	$5,200	$3.25	72d	1	0.73mi
5935 Mayflower Way Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1460	$2,550	$1.75	72d	1	0.83mi
8010 Helena Ct Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1554	$2,500	$1.61	70d	1	0.83mi
5704 Melbourne Ct #6712 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1741	$7,295	$4.19	72d	1	0.89mi
6039 Ellerston WAY #2017 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1355	$6,295	$4.65	72d	1	0.89mi
5629 Double Eagle Cir #4217 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1154	$5,795	$5.02	72d	1	0.89mi
5651 Double Eagle Cir #4316 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1154	$5,495	$4.76	72d	1	0.89mi
5629 Double Eagle Cir #4223 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1154	$2,395	$2.08	72d	1	0.89mi
5715 Double Eagle Cir #4416 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1154	$2,100	$1.82	72d	1	0.89mi
5835 Double Eagle CIR #4714 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1120	$1,895	$1.69	72d	1	0.89mi
5835 Double Eagle Cir #4726 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1154	$2,095	$1.82	63d	1	0.89mi
5710 Melbourne Ct #6511 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1741	$7,295	$4.19	72d	1	0.89mi
5651 Double Eagle Cir #4338 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1301	$6,295	$4.84	72d	1	0.89mi
5629 Double Eagle Cir #4218 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1301	$6,295	$4.84	72d	1	0.89mi
6036 Ellerston WAY #1311 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1741	$4,490	$2.58	72d	1	0.89mi
5445 Double Eagle Cir #3011 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1569	$2,495	$1.59	72d	1	0.89mi
5769 Mayflower Way Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1554	$4,000	$2.57	72d	1	0.96mi
5705 Mayflower Way #1407 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1536	$2,250	$1.46	72d	1	0.96mi
6082 National Blvd Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1366	$4,145	$3.03	72d	2	1.01mi
5697 Mayflower Way Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1538	$2,495	$1.62	72d	1	1.02mi
5690 Mayflower Way #601 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1815	$5,500	$3.03	72d	1	1.04mi
5690 Mayflower Way Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1815	$3,295	$1.82	72d	1	1.05mi
6023 Ellerston Way #1823 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1695	$2,995	$1.77	72d	1	1.05mi
5909 Berwick Ln Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1850	$10,995	$5.94	72d	1	1.10mi
6058 National Blvd Ave Maria, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1210	$2,995	$2.47	72d	2	1.12mi
6058 National Blvd #335 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1120	$5,795	$5.17	63d	1	1.12mi
6058 National Blvd #343 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1194	$4,000	$3.35	72d	1	1.12mi
6046 National Blvd Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1154	$4,395	$3.81	72d	2	1.16mi
6034 National Blvd Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1137	$4,046	$3.56	63d	3	1.22mi
5428 Double Eagle Cir #2517 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1355	$2,695	$1.99	72d	1	1.24mi
5410 Double Eagle Cir #2222 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1355	$2,395	$1.77	72d	1	1.25mi
5433 Double Eagle Cir #2915 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1366	$6,295	$4.61	70d	1	1.26mi
5433 Double Eagle Cir Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1366	$3,295	$2.41	72d	1	1.27mi
5835 Double Eagle Cir Unit 4742 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1154	$5,795	$5.02	72d	1	1.28mi
5807 Double Eagle Cir #4631 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1301	$5,695	$4.38	72d	1	1.28mi
5466 Double Eagle Cir #3425 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1355	$5,995	$4.42	72d	1	1.29mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $349,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family planAddress: Ave Maria, FL
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,405

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan: Contour (new construction)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $349,990 Active 71 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $349,990 Active 70 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $349,990 Active 69 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $349,990 Active 68 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $349,990 Active 67 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $349,990 Active 66 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $349,990 Active 63 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $349,990 Active 62 DOM
9. 2026-07-29
   days on market $349,990 Active 61 DOM
10. 2026-07-27
    days on market $349,990 Active 59 DOM
11. 2026-07-25
    days on market $349,990 Active 57 DOM
12. 2026-07-24
    days on market $349,990 Active 56 DOM
13. 2026-07-23
    days on market $349,990 Active 55 DOM
14. 2026-07-22
    days on market $349,990 Active 54 DOM
15. 2026-07-22
    days on market $349,990 Active 53 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $349,990 Active 50 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $349,990 Active 48 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $349,990 Active 47 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $349,990 Active 46 DOM
20. 2026-07-14
    days on market $349,990 Active 45 DOM
21. 2026-07-12
    days on market $349,990 Active 44 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $349,990 Active 43 DOM
23. 2026-07-09
    days on market $349,990 Active 41 DOM
24. 2026-07-08
    days on market $349,990 Active 40 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $349,990 Active 39 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $349,990 Active 38 DOM
27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $349,990 Active 37 DOM
28. 2026-07-04
    days on market $349,990 Active 36 DOM
29. 2026-07-02
    days on market $349,990 Active 34 DOM
30. 2026-07-01
    days on market $349,990 Active 33 DOM
31. 2026-06-30
    days on market $349,990 Active 32 DOM
32. 2026-06-29
    days on market $349,990 Active 31 DOM
33. 2026-06-28
    days on market $349,990 Active 30 DOM
34. 2026-06-27
    days on market $349,990 Active 28 DOM
35. 2026-06-25
    days on market $349,990 Active 26 DOM
36. 2026-06-23
    days on market $349,990 Active 24 DOM
37. 2026-06-22
    days on market $349,990 Active 23 DOM
38. 2026-06-18
    days on market $349,990 Active 20 DOM
39. 2026-06-17
    days on market $349,990 Active 19 DOM
40. 2026-06-16
    days on market $349,990 Active 18 DOM
41. 2026-06-15
    days on market $349,990 Active 17 DOM
42. 2026-06-10
    days on market $349,990 Active 12 DOM
43. 2026-06-09
    days on market $349,990 Active 11 DOM
44. 2026-06-08
    days on market $349,990 Active 10 DOM
45. 2026-06-07
    days on market $349,990 Active 9 DOM
46. 2026-06-02
    days on market $349,990 Active 4 DOM
47. 2026-06-01
    days on market $349,990 Active 3 DOM
48. 2026-05-31
    days on market $349,990 Active 2 DOM
49. 2026-05-30
    remarks 343-char remark
50. 2026-05-30
    listed $349,990 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone AH · 12% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,941
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,953
• − Property taxes: −$6,414
• − Insurance: −$3,963
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,315
• − Management: −$2,315
• − Depreciation: −$12,440
• Taxable loss: −$22,459
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,390
• After-tax cash flow: $-9,033/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This single-story home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a good return on investment with updates that can increase its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and can add value ↑
• Both Replace landscaping — Fresh greenery can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers ↑
• Resale Upgrade kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can increase the home's appeal to potential buyers ↑
• Both Install smart home features — Smart home features can increase convenience and add value ↑
• Both Add a smart thermostat — A smart thermostat can improve energy efficiency and add value ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 60/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Estates Elementary School B+ FL #409/2,144 Nat'l #4,125/41,679 Middle Corkscrew Middle School B+ FL #109/571 Nat'l #1,406/14,009 High Palmetto Ridge High School D- FL #207/667 Nat'l #6,330/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Collier
• NCES district ID: 1200330
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,275
• Composite: 50.23/100
• National rank: #1892
• State rank: #16 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ave Maria

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ave Maria, FL
• County: Collier County · 420,858 people
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• Population (ZIP): 35,149
• Household income: $62,333
• Rent vs Own: 48.7% rent · 51.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 12% of renters

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Population outlook (Collier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,858 people
• By 2030: 450,054 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 502,232 · +19.3%
• By 2050: 544,932 · +29.5%
• By 2075: 627,203 · +49.0%
• By 2100: 659,015 · +56.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 63% Two or more races 39% Black 19% White 16% Native American 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 43% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 8% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 32% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 34% English-only · Spanish 53% French/Haitian/Cajun 12%

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Political lean MEDSL · Collier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.1) · D 33.1% · R 66.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -33.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.1 2020: R+24.7 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+30.1 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.05%
• Current HPI: 226.9105
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.95%
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $349,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family planAddress: Ave Maria, FL
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,405

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan: Contour (new construction)