159 Autumn Chapel Way · Scottsville, NY 14624

$119,900

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,164 sqft · Condo public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1972 $300/mo HOA · 16% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.4/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +9.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Step into this fresh, like new, 2-bedroom, 1.5 Bath condo, with newer appliances (all included), first floor laundry, 2yr old Anderson windows, updated bathrooms, 2yr old carpet, new blinds and 2 brand new in wall A/C wall units with remotes. The 2 generous size bedrooms make it easy to work from home or host overnight guests Kimberly Condo Estates is in the highly rated Churchville-Chili school district and has amenities: in ground pool, (turn right outside your back door) clubhouse, basketball and more. It is close to Wegmans, Restaurants and shopping. This condo offers convenience, comfort and a smart investment all in one home! Delayed negotiations until 6/24/2026 at 1:00PM

Key facts

• Anderson windows
• Newer appliances
• First floor laundry

Tags

• NEWER APPLIANCES
• FIRST FLOOR LAUNDRY
• ANDERSON WINDOWS
• UPDATED BATHROOMS
• NEW BLINDS
• A/C WALL UNITS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Cats and dogs allowed
• HOA & community: Association: Realty Performance; Monthly association fee of $300; Association fee covers common area maintenance, common area insurance, structure maintenance, sewer, snow removal, trash, and water

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned parking (two spaces), no garage
• Security: Owned security system
• Utilities: Public water connected; Sewer connected; Electric with circuit breakers
• Home design: 2-story property; Resale condition
• Construction: Brick and shake siding; Asphalt roof; Existing construction
• Exterior features: In-ground community pool; Patio

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Garbage disposal; Eat-in kitchen; Solid surface counters
• Bedrooms: Bedrooms located on main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Luxury vinyl; Varies
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom; 1 bathroom on main level
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Baseboard heating; Window cooling units; Wall cooling units
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Entrance foyer; Eat-in kitchen; Separate/formal living room; Kitchen/family room combo; Sliding glass door(s); Solid surface counters; Window treatments; Drapes; Sliding doors
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Main-level laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath condo listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $352 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Cap rate 9.8% vs local median 3.8% in Scottsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#409 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-, cost of living B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Churchville-Chili Central School District (rural): math 53% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #291 of 590 in NY (top 49%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Churchville-Chili Middle School (math 39% / reading 50%, grade D, #348 of 729 statewide, top 50%, 1,156 students, 34% FRL); Churchville-Chili Senior High School (math 95% / reading 98%, grade A+, #59 of 1,100 statewide, top 6%, 1,192 students, 30% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 70% at this address vs 55% district-wide (+15 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Churchville-Chili Central School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 127 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,169 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (591 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $829 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Monroe County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $120k implies a 200% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $119,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.56% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.58%
• DSCR: 1.56
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.10×
• Total profit: $3,193
• Equity at exit: $17,877

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.97×
• Total profit: $32,503
• Equity at exit: $10,367

Cash invested: $33,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14624

• Active inventory: 127
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,876 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$152 /mo · $1,820/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$300
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$394
• Net cashflow: $352

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,431

Max offer price $119,900

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $420	-5% $386	+0% $352	+5% $318	+10% $284
Rent	-10% $204	-5% $278	+0% $352	+5% $426	+10% $500
Rate	-1.0pp $412	-0.5pp $382	base $352	+0.5pp $321	+1.0pp $289

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,975
• Closing costs: $3,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
175 Autumn Chapel Way Rochester, NY	2.0	1.5	1164	$2,000	$1.72	46d	1	0.02mi
200 Mulcahy Blvd Unit 12-B Rochester, NY	2.0	2.0	1047	$1,898	$1.81	5d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $300 · $3,600/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-21
   remarks 688-char remark
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $119,900 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   remarks 652-char remark
4. 2026-06-17
   remarks 604-char remark
5. 2026-06-17
   listed $119,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,820 · $152/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,923 · $160/mo
• Expected delta: +$103/yr (+$9/mo · 5.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,514
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,716
• − Property taxes: −$1,820
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,801
• − Management: −$1,801
• − HOA: −$3,600
• − Depreciation: −$3,488
• Taxable income: $2,689
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$645
• After-tax cash flow: $3,577/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Churchville-Chili Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3607530
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $61,997
• Composite: 48.07/100
• National rank: #2191
• State rank: #291 of 590 in NY

Livability — Scottsville

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #409
• US rank: #7059

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Monroe County · 674,131 people
• City population: 4,450
• Metro: Rochester, NY
• Population (ZIP): 38,626
• Household income: $87,989
• Rent vs Own: 21.1% rent · 78.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 584.0

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 759,460 people
• By 2030: 757,154 · -0.3%
• By 2040: 740,644 · -2.5%
• By 2050: 714,443 · -5.9%
• By 2075: 645,883 · -15.0%
• By 2100: 547,084 · -28.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Black 9% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Iranian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China, India
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: D (+19.1) · D 59.5% · R 40.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.4pp toward D · 2008: 17.7pp · 2024: 19.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.1 2020: D+21.0 2016: D+14.1 2012: D+17.4 2008: D+17.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -151.26%
• Current HPI: 267.356
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Rochester, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+199.8% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Listed $119,900 UNYREIS
• 1996-12-05 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,820 · -43.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.