1597 Water Oak Rd · Bunnell, FL 32110

$199,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,508 sqft · Manufactured public records · 28 Days on market

Built 2000 0.51 ac lot Est $243k · 18% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nice 3 bedroom 2 bath double wide, open floor plan, title floors, large screened in porch, Solar system 10 Kilowatt PV Grid-Tied solar electricity system.

Key facts

• Large covered porch
• Fully paved road
• 0.51 acre lot

Tags

• FULLY PAVED ROAD
• LARGE COVERED PORCH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $172 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $186k (6.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $186k (6.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 3.5% in Bunnell — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#378 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Flagler (rural): math 53% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #20 of 73 in FL (top 27%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 277 active listings in the ZIP; 2,588 units permitted in Flagler County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Flagler County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($196k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $186,014 (6.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.70%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $242,788
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1537 Bayberry St	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,620 (+7%)	2mo	$280,000	$173	76
1425 Water Oak Rd	0.15mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,550 (+3%)	14mo	$250,000	$161	72
1450 Almond St	0.40mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,624 (+8%)	1mo	$130,000	$80	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-21,311
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-4,531
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32110

• Home prices YoY: -22.4%
• Active inventory: 277
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,860 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$171 /mo · $2,052/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$391
• Net cashflow: $172

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,642

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-04-06
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-21
   status Active
3. 2026-03-11
   status Pending
4. 2026-02-27
   listed $199,000 Active
5. 2024-08-22
   status Active
6. 2024-08-14
   price $254,900
7. 2024-07-03
   price $259,000
8. 2024-06-10
   price $264,900
9. 2024-05-30
   listed $269,000 Active
10. 2021-10-08
    soldstatus $181,900
11. 2021-06-16
    soldstatus $181,900 155-char remark

    Show marketing remark (155 chars)

    Nice 3 bedroom 2 bath double wide, open floor plan, title floors, large screened in porch, Solar system 10 Kilowatt PV Grid-Tied solar electricity system.

12. 2021-04-07
    listed $179,900 155-char remark

    Show marketing remark (155 chars)

    Nice 3 bedroom 2 bath double wide, open floor plan, title floors, large screened in porch, Solar system 10 Kilowatt PV Grid-Tied solar electricity system.

13. 2021-02-17
    historical
14. 2019-10-04
    listed $155,000
15. 2001-08-22
    soldstatus $72,900
16. 1983-08-01
    soldstatus $24,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,052 · $171/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,052 · $171/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,322
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$2,052
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,786
• − Management: −$1,786
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$1,233
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$296
• After-tax cash flow: $2,360/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Flagler
• NCES district ID: 1200540
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,354
• Composite: 46.35/100
• National rank: #2464
• State rank: #20 of 73 in FL

Livability — Bunnell

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #378
• US rank: #6714

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,877

Population outlook (Flagler County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 123,474 people
• By 2030: 131,864 · +6.8%
• By 2040: 146,176 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 157,398 · +27.5%
• By 2075: 177,990 · +44.2%
• By 2100: 183,381 · +48.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Black 11% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Flagler

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.2) · D 35.6% · R 63.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.8pp toward R · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: -28.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.2 2020: R+20.8 2016: R+20.6 2012: R+7.4 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.28%
• Current HPI: 271.446
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+729.2% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-21 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-11 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-27 Listed $199,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-22 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-14 Price Changed $254,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-03 Price Changed $259,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-10 Price Changed $264,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-30 Listed $269,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-10-08 Sold (Public Records) $181,900 Public Records
• 2021-06-16 Sold (MLS) $181,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-04-07 Listed $179,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-02-17 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-10-04 Listed $155,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2001-08-22 Sold (Public Records) $72,900 Public Records
• 1983-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $24,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,052 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.