17412 E Trail Ends Rd · Spring Valley, AZ 86333

$145,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 720 sqft · Manufactured public records · 142 Days on market

Built 1969 8,802 sqft lot Est $182k · 20% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +9.7/10.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This mobile sits on a wonderful parcel in Spring Valley. The mobile is 2 bedrooms, 1 bath with a bonus room not included in sq. footage and laundry room with storage. Nice Mulberry tree, Rose bushes,and 2 sheds.This is an estate sale and is being sold in the ''As-Is'' condition. The seller will pump and certify septic system. No repairs will be made. It is a cash only sale.

Key facts

• 8,802 sq ft lot
• Parking
• Built 1969

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association fees

Exterior

• Parking: 1 covered parking space; 1 carport space
• Utilities: Septic tank; Private water company
• Home design: Manufactured/mobile housing; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Other construction materials; Metal roof (also listed as other)
• Exterior features: Partial fencing; Dirt front and back yard; Gravel/stone at front

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator included
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Evaporative cooling
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Full bath in primary bedroom

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $434 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).
• Recommended offer: $128k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#117 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Mayer Unified School District (4473) (rural): math 23% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #165 of 249 in AZ (top 66%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Mayer Elementary School (math 26% / reading 32%, grade F, #570 of 1,109 statewide, top 52%, 373 students, 93% FRL); Mayer High School (math 5% / reading 5%, grade F, #364 of 381 statewide, top 100%, 200 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools at 79% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 242 active listings in the ZIP; 2,062 units permitted in Yavapai County in 2024 (98 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $14k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Yavapai County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 142 days — a 12% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $145k implies a 383% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $127,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 142 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.84%
• DSCR: 1.57
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $182,160
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
17243 E Lakeveiw Dr	0.34mi	2/1.0	728 (+1%)	11mo	$185,000	$254	69
17127 Rabbit Rd	0.45mi	2/2.0	729 (+1%)	20mo	$145,000	$199	60
17465 E Meadow Ln	0.36mi	2/2.0	673 (-6%)	15mo	$170,000	$253	60
17414 E Meadow Ln	0.31mi	2/1.5	672 (-7%)	16mo	$107,500	$160	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 33.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.62×
• Total profit: $106,561
• Equity at exit: $130,627

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.0%
• Equity multiple: 8.19×
• Total profit: $291,908
• Equity at exit: $281,703

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 86333

• Home prices YoY: 17.3%
• Active inventory: 242
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,620 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$24 /mo · $294/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$340
• Net cashflow: $434

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,070

Max offer price $145,000

Occupancy floor 68%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $516	-5% $475	+0% $434	+5% $227	+10% $177
Rent	-10% $306	-5% $370	+0% $434	+5% $498	+10% $562
Rate	-1.0pp $507	-0.5pp $471	base $434	+0.5pp $397	+1.0pp $359

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $145,000 Active 142 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $145,000 Active 141 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $145,000 Active 140 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $145,000 Active 139 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $145,000 Active 137 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $145,000 Active 136 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $145,000 Active 134 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $145,000 Active 133 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $145,000 Active 132 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $145,000 Active 131 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $145,000 Active 127 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $145,000 Active 126 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $145,000 Active 125 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $145,000 Active 124 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $145,000 Active 123 DOM
16. 2026-03-16
    price $145,000
17. 2026-01-27
    listed $150,000 Active
18. 2016-03-29
    soldstatus $30,000 376-char remark

    Show marketing remark (376 chars)

    This mobile sits on a wonderful parcel in Spring Valley. The mobile is 2 bedrooms, 1 bath with a bonus room not included in sq. footage and laundry room with storage. Nice Mulberry tree, Rose bushes,and 2 sheds.This is an estate sale and is being sold in the ''As-Is'' condition. The seller will pump and certify septic system. No repairs will be made. It is a cash only sale.

19. 1991-12-23
    soldstatus $6,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $294 · $24/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $957 · $80/mo
• Expected delta: +$663/yr (+$55/mo · 226.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,437
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$294
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,555
• − Management: −$1,555
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable income: $2,968
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$712
• After-tax cash flow: $4,500/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mayer Unified School District (4473)
• NCES district ID: 0404820
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $35,108
• Composite: 20.22/100
• National rank: #8627
• State rank: #165 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Spring Valley

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #117
• US rank: #15515

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Spring Valley, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 6,425

Population outlook (Yavapai County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 241,389 people
• By 2030: 249,523 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 259,966 · +7.7%
• By 2050: 264,736 · +9.7%
• By 2075: 269,334 · +11.6%
• By 2100: 256,505 · +6.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Two or more races 15% Hispanic / Latino 14%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Iranian 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Yavapai

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.9) · D 32.6% · R 66.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.5pp toward R · 2008: -24.4pp · 2024: -33.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.9 2020: R+29.3 2016: R+31.4 2012: R+30.7 2008: R+24.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 55.51%
• Current HPI: 376.0374
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+2130.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-16 Price Changed $145,000 ARMLS
• 2026-01-27 Listed $150,000 ARMLS
• 2016-03-29 Sold (MLS) $30,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1991-12-23 Sold (Public Records) $6,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $294 · +6.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.