17602 Possums Run Dr · Atascocita, TX 77396

$199,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,430 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 135 Days on market

Built 1979 7,474 sqft lot $140/sqft · 12% below area Est $228k · 12% under $38/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.1/15.0
• Cash flow +10.4/30.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This is it! Ready for immediate move in. Gorgeous 3-2, updated throughout with fresh paint inside and out, vinyl plank flooring throughout & carpet in all bedrooms. New countertops in the in the kitchen along with New stainless steel appliances. Open floor plan living room & formal dining with lots of room for entertaining. Updated HARDWARE thru out (faucets, light fixtures, door knobs and new Mirrors) even the bathroom have New countertops...TOO MANY UPGRADES to mention...Super nice and ready to go...HURRY!

Key facts

• 7,474 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1979

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-106 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $181k (9.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $190k (5.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $176k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 4.0% in Atascocita — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#346 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Humble ISD (urban): math 38% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #262 of 826 in TX (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Whispering Pines El (math 21% / reading 25%, grade F, #3,277 of 4,322 statewide, top 77%, 697 students, 77% FRL); Humble Middle (math 21% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,258 of 1,662 statewide, top 77%, 1,382 students, 81% FRL); Humble H S (math 15% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,348 of 1,632 statewide, top 83%, 2,867 students, 77% FRL) — zoned schools average 78% FRL vs 32% district-wide (46 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 24% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-17 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Humble ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.9%/yr); 260 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 135 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $175,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 135 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
5. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.66%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.26%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $228,199
• List price: $199,900
• Delta: -12.40%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
17530 Solly Oak Pl	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,503 (+5%)	6mo	$225,000	$150	74
3115 Lauren Oaks Ln	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,426 (-0%)	5mo	$228,500	$160	73
17415 Blackstone Trails Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,398 (-2%)	6mo	$230,000	$165	71
3614 Drawbridge Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,311 (-8%)	11mo	$185,000	$141	68
3910 Wintergreen Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,617 (+13%)	8mo	$208,000	$129	68
17406 Little Shoe Ln	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,324 (-7%)	8mo	$225,000	$170	66
17327 Shrub Oak Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,545 (+8%)	10mo	$229,999	$149	64
17343 Shrub Oak Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,545 (+8%)	17mo	$223,000	$144	60
16823 Shrub Oak Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,448 (+1%)	13mo	$225,900	$156	55
3123 Lauren Oaks Ln	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,622 (+13%)	16mo	$245,000	$151	43
10426 Whisper Bluff Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,615 (+13%)	16mo	$219,900	$136	37
16706 Capewood Dr	0.75mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,224 (-14%)	13mo	$190,000	$155	25

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-44,506
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: -33.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.22×
• Total profit: $-68,213
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77396

• Home prices YoY: -22.5%
• Rents YoY: -2.9%
• Active inventory: 260
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,896 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$434 /mo · $5,205/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$38
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$398
• Net cashflow: $-106

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,030

Max offer price $181,256

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $8	-5% $-49	+0% $-106	+5% $-162	+10% $-219
Rent	-10% $-255	-5% $-180	+0% $-106	+5% $-31	+10% $44
Rate	-1.0pp $-5	-0.5pp $-55	base $-106	+0.5pp $-157	+1.0pp $-210

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 27 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3818 Oaktrace Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1644	$2,200	$1.34	45d	1	0.09mi
3918 Atascocita Rd Humble, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	945	$1,650	$1.75	17d	13	0.27mi
10534 Fire Sage Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	1460	$1,921	$1.32	14d	1	0.43mi
19100 Woodland Hills Dr Humble, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	898	$1,501	$1.67	0d	9	0.46mi
3623 Village Grove Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1404	$1,709	$1.22	18d	1	0.48mi
17935 Hunters Terrace Dr Humble, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	914	$2,432	$2.66	17d	60	0.58mi
10338 Whisper Bluff Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1670	$1,819	$1.09	4d	1	0.67mi
18110 Hunters Terrace Dr Unit 2165 Humble, TX	2.0	2.0	1113	$1,838	$1.65	1d	1	0.69mi
18110 Hunters Terrace Dr Unit 2148 Humble, TX	2.0	2.0	1113	$1,879	$1.69	1d	1	0.70mi
18110 Hunters Terrace Dr Unit 2162 Humble, TX	2.0	2.0	1113	$1,854	$1.67	7d	1	0.70mi
18110 Hunters Terrace Dr Unit 18133 Humble, TX	2.0	2.0	1113	$1,878	$1.69	12d	1	0.70mi
18110 Hunters Terrace Dr Humble, TX	2.0	2.0	1104	$1,699	$1.54	14d	1	0.70mi
18110 Hunters Terrace Dr Unit 2174 Humble, TX	2.0	2.0	1030	$1,564	$1.52	17d	1	0.70mi
18110 Hunters Terrace Dr Unit 18167 Humble, TX	2.0	2.0	1030	$1,589	$1.54	45d	1	0.70mi
18018 Heron Forest Ln Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1795	$1,939	$1.08	26d	1	0.74mi
17202 Atascocita Bend Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1644	$1,899	$1.16	1d	1	0.94mi
17834 Yellow Birch Trl Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1532	$1,646	$1.07	45d	1	0.99mi
16707 Highland Villa Ln Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1672	$1,900	$1.14	1d	1	1.05mi
15951 Woodland Hills Dr Humble, TX	2.0	2.0	1019	$1,720	$1.69	26d	1	1.32mi
15951 Woodland Hills Dr Unit 2047 Humble, TX	2.0	2.0	1019	$1,585	$1.56	13d	1	1.44mi
15951 Woodland Hills Dr Unit 424 Humble, TX	2.0	2.0	1019	$1,550	$1.52	7d	1	1.44mi
15951 Woodland Hills Dr Unit 2112 Humble, TX	2.0	2.0	1019	$1,534	$1.51	1d	1	1.44mi
15951 Woodland Hills Dr Unit 3112 Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1505	$2,094	$1.39	1d	1	1.44mi
15951 Woodland Hills Dr Unit 2148 Humble, TX	2.0	2.0	1019	$1,575	$1.55	1d	1	1.44mi
15951 Woodland Hills Dr Unit 15984 Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1505	$2,134	$1.42	12d	1	1.44mi
15951 Woodland Hills Dr Unit 16008 Humble, TX	2.0	2.0	1019	$1,574	$1.54	12d	1	1.44mi
15957 Woodland Hills Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1505	$2,200	$1.46	45d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $38 · $456/yr

Listing history 36 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $199,900 Active 135 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,900 Active 132 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   remarks 608-char remark
4. 2026-06-17
   price $199,900 Active 131 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $209,900 Active 131 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $209,900 Active 130 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $209,900 Active 129 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $209,900 Active 127 DOM
9. 2026-06-13
   days on market $209,900 Active 126 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $209,900 Active 123 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $209,900 Active 122 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $209,900 Active 121 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $209,900 Active 118 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $209,900 Active 117 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $209,900 Active 116 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $209,900 Active 115 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $209,900 Active 114 DOM
18. 2026-04-25
    price $209,900 521-char remark

    Show marketing remark (521 chars)

    This is it! Ready for immediate move in. Gorgeous 3-2, updated throughout with fresh paint inside and out, vinyl plank flooring throughout & carpet in all bedrooms. New countertops in the in the kitchen along with New stainless steel appliances. Open floor plan living room & formal dining with lots of room for entertaining. Updated HARDWARE thru out (faucets, light fixtures, door knobs and new Mirrors) even the bathroom have New countertops...TOO MANY UPGRADES to mention...Super nice and ready to go...HURRY!

19. 2026-02-06
    listed $219,900 Active 521-char remark

    Show marketing remark (521 chars)

    This is it! Ready for immediate move in. Gorgeous 3-2, updated throughout with fresh paint inside and out, vinyl plank flooring throughout & carpet in all bedrooms. New countertops in the in the kitchen along with New stainless steel appliances. Open floor plan living room & formal dining with lots of room for entertaining. Updated HARDWARE thru out (faucets, light fixtures, door knobs and new Mirrors) even the bathroom have New countertops...TOO MANY UPGRADES to mention...Super nice and ready to go...HURRY!

20. 2014-08-20
    soldstatus
21. 2014-07-03
    soldstatus Sold 141-char remark

    Show marketing remark (141 chars)

    Spacious lot in nice cul-de-sac. 3/2/2 with a fireplace and fresh interior paint, new doors. The owner just replaced the carpet in the house.

22. 2014-05-06
    status Pending 141-char remark

    Show marketing remark (141 chars)

    Spacious lot in nice cul-de-sac. 3/2/2 with a fireplace and fresh interior paint, new doors. The owner just replaced the carpet in the house.

23. 2014-05-06
    status Option Pending 141-char remark

    Show marketing remark (141 chars)

    Spacious lot in nice cul-de-sac. 3/2/2 with a fireplace and fresh interior paint, new doors. The owner just replaced the carpet in the house.

24. 2014-05-06
    price $105,500 141-char remark

    Show marketing remark (141 chars)

    Spacious lot in nice cul-de-sac. 3/2/2 with a fireplace and fresh interior paint, new doors. The owner just replaced the carpet in the house.

25. 2014-04-28
    status Active 141-char remark

    Show marketing remark (141 chars)

    Spacious lot in nice cul-de-sac. 3/2/2 with a fireplace and fresh interior paint, new doors. The owner just replaced the carpet in the house.

26. 2014-04-22
    historical 141-char remark

    Show marketing remark (141 chars)

    Spacious lot in nice cul-de-sac. 3/2/2 with a fireplace and fresh interior paint, new doors. The owner just replaced the carpet in the house.

27. 2014-04-18
    listed $110,900 Active 141-char remark

    Show marketing remark (141 chars)

    Spacious lot in nice cul-de-sac. 3/2/2 with a fireplace and fresh interior paint, new doors. The owner just replaced the carpet in the house.

28. 2012-01-30
    historical
29. 2011-12-30
    listed $85,000
30. 2011-12-10
    historical
31. 2011-11-30
    listed $85,000
32. 2011-08-23
    soldstatus
33. 2004-12-28
    soldstatus
34. 2004-02-23
    soldstatus
35. 2003-12-02
    soldstatus
36. 2003-10-13
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,205 · $434/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,205 · $434/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,752
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$5,205
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,820
• − Management: −$1,820
• − HOA: −$456
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$4,562
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,095
• After-tax cash flow: $-172/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Humble ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823910
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $83,946
• Composite: 38.55/100
• National rank: #4171
• State rank: #262 of 826 in TX

Livability — Atascocita

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #346
• US rank: #7586

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Atascocita, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 79,538
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 61,735
• Household income: $78,169
• Rent vs Own: 33.1% rent · 66.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1655.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% Black 29% Two or more races 19% White 19% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 36%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 58% English-only · Spanish 37% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -70.66%
• Current HPI: 243.7012
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.92%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+146.9% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-25 Price Changed $209,900 HARMLS
• 2026-02-06 Listed $219,900 HARMLS
• 2014-08-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-07-03 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2014-05-06 Pending — HARMLS
• 2014-05-06 Pending — HARMLS
• 2014-05-06 Price Changed $105,500 HARMLS
• 2014-04-28 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2014-04-22 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2014-04-18 Listed $110,900 HARMLS
• 2012-01-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2011-12-30 Listed $85,000 HARMLS
• 2011-12-10 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2011-11-30 Listed $85,000 HARMLS
• 2011-08-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2004-12-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2004-02-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-12-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-10-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,205 · +0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.