8673 Rte 289 · Belleville, NY 13605

$199,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,560 sqft · SingleFamily · 58 Days on market

Built 1860 0.62 ac lot Est $317k · 37% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.8/30.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this charming, fully remodeled two story country home where modern updates meet timeless character. The brand new eat -in kitchen is designed to impress, featuring a new stove, new dishwasher, stainless steel refrigerator. From the kitchen, step directly onto the back porch overlooking a partially fenced yard, perfect for children, pets, or simply enjoying the peaceful surroundings. Full bath and laundry located on 1st floor. Upstairs you’ll find three comfortable bedrooms and convenient access to the half bath from the primary bedroom as well as the hallway. A beautiful staircase adds warmth and character, enhancing the home’s inviting feel. This home has undergone

Key facts

• New metal roof
• Fully remodeled
• New kitchen

Tags

• FULLY REMODELED
• NEW KITCHEN
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• PARTIALLY FENCED YARD
• COMPREHENSIVE RENOVATION
• NEW METAL ROOF

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; 1 garage space
• Utilities: Public water connected; Water connected; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: 2-story house; Existing year built (resale)
• Construction: Frame construction with blown-in insulation; Block foundation; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Gravel driveway; Rectangular lot (approx. 0.62 acres, 112 x 241)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Free-standing range / Oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 6 (includes living spaces and laundry)
• Flooring: Laminate; Luxury vinyl; Varies
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom; 1 main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Gas heating; Baseboard heating; Forced air
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Separate/formal living room; Country kitchen; Walk-in pantry; Other (see remarks)
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-164 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $176k (11.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $154k (22.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $154k (22.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,041 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A-, cost of living B+; Watch: schools C-, employment C-, health & safety D.
• Belleville-Henderson Central School District (rural): math 43% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #386 of 590 in NY (top 65%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 33 active listings in the ZIP; 196 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Jefferson County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1860 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $154,098 (22.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1860 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.31%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.52%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $316,680
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8673 Rte 289	0.00mi	3/1.5	1,560 (0%)	1mo	$211,894	$136	100
8415 County Route 75	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,452 (-7%)	14mo	$295,000	$203	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.76×
• Total profit: $98,443
• Equity at exit: $180,086

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.33×
• Total profit: $298,164
• Equity at exit: $388,362

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13605

• Home prices YoY: 12.7%
• Active inventory: 33
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,541 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$250 /mo · $2,998/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$324
• Net cashflow: $-164

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,749

Max offer price $176,156

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-26	-5% $-95	+0% $-164	+5% $-233	+10% $-302
Rent	-10% $-286	-5% $-225	+0% $-164	+5% $-103	+10% $-42
Rate	-1.0pp $-63	-0.5pp $-113	base $-164	+0.5pp $-216	+1.0pp $-269

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-15
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-14
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-02-16
   listed $199,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,492
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$2,998
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,479
• − Management: −$1,479
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$5,478
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,315
• After-tax cash flow: $-654/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Belleville-Henderson Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3604370
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,416
• Composite: 42.68/100
• National rank: #3175
• State rank: #386 of 590 in NY

Livability — Belleville

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1041
• US rank: #20611

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A- Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Belleville, NY
• Population (ZIP): 5,106

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 111,748 people
• By 2030: 109,370 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 103,828 · -7.1%
• By 2050: 98,523 · -11.8%
• By 2075: 91,422 · -18.2%
• By 2100: 78,214 · -30.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 5% Black 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Slovak 5% Romanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.6) · D 38.2% · R 61.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.3pp toward R · 2008: -5.3pp · 2024: -23.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.6 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+22.4 2012: R+2.9 2008: R+5.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 39.95%
• Current HPI: 354.8216
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Pending — CNYIS
• 2026-04-14 Contingent — CNYIS
• 2026-02-16 Listed $199,900 CNYIS