1106 Birch St St · Victoria, KS 67671

$89,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,041 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 209 Days on market

Built 1914 7,733 sqft lot ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Thick wood trim
• Tile floors
• Large corner lot

Tags

• LIMESTONE WALLS
• THICK WOOD TRIM
• TILE FLOORS
• CARPET IN BEDROOM
• LARGE CORNER LOT
• SMALL STORAGE SHED

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Natural gas available
• Home design: Residential property; Zoned NC.1 / R-1
• Construction: Stone construction
• Exterior features: Covered patio

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Range; Oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 1 main-level bedroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Electric and natural gas heating; Central heating
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Disposal; Range; Oven; Refrigerator; Total of 4 rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $89k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $150 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($936 rent vs $89k).
• Recommended offer: $78k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#35 in KS, #2,800 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Victoria (rural): math 30% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #157 of 280 in KS (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Victoria Elementary (math 47% / reading 42%, grade F, #228 of 684 statewide, top 38%, 164 students, 32% FRL); Victoria Junior-Senior High School (math 17% / reading 17%, grade F, #235 of 327 statewide, top 74%, 120 students, 26% FRL).
• Market conditions: 5 active listings in the ZIP; 34 units permitted in Ellis County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $615 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ellis County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 209 days — a 12% lower offer ($78k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $9k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1914 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $78,320 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 209 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1914 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.23%
• DSCR: 1.32
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-4,867
• Equity at exit: $13,270

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.32×
• Total profit: $8,060
• Equity at exit: $7,695

Cash invested: $24,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kansas: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; moderate court pace.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 67671

• Home prices YoY: -15.7%
• Active inventory: 5
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $936 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$467
• Tax from tax record: −$85 /mo · $1,024/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$197
• Net cashflow: $150

Break-even live

Break-even rent $746

Max offer price $89,000

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $200	-5% $175	+0% $150	+5% $125	+10% $100
Rent	-10% $76	-5% $113	+0% $150	+5% $187	+10% $224
Rate	-1.0pp $195	-0.5pp $173	base $150	+0.5pp $127	+1.0pp $104

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,250
• Closing costs: $2,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $89,000 Active 209 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $89,000 Active 206 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,000 Active 205 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,000 Active 204 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,000 Active 203 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,000 Active 202 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $89,000 Active 200 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $89,000 Active 199 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $89,000 Active 196 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $89,000 Active 195 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $89,000 Active 194 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $89,000 Active 192 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $89,000 Active 190 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $89,000 Active 189 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $89,000 Active 188 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $89,000 Active 187 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $89,000 Active 186 DOM
18. 2026-04-04
    status Active
19. 2026-04-04
    price $89,000
20. 2026-04-01
    historical
21. 2025-11-21
    listed $98,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,024 · $85/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,255 · $105/mo
• Expected delta: +$231/yr (+$19/mo · 22.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,229
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,985
• − Property taxes: −$1,024
• − Insurance: −$445
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$898
• − Management: −$898
• − Depreciation: −$2,589
• Taxable income: $388
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$93
• After-tax cash flow: $1,707/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Victoria
• NCES district ID: 2012600
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $51,939
• Composite: 29.22/100
• National rank: #11856
• State rank: #157 of 280 in KS

Livability — Victoria

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #35
• US rank: #2800

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Victoria, KS
• Population (ZIP): 1,369

Population outlook (Ellis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 30,414 people
• By 2030: 31,166 · +2.5%
• By 2040: 32,361 · +6.4%
• By 2050: 33,598 · +10.5%
• By 2075: 36,890 · +21.3%
• By 2100: 39,282 · +29.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 3% Iranian 1% Danish 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ellis

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+46.1) · D 26.0% · R 72.1% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.4pp toward R · 2008: -33.7pp · 2024: -46.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+46.1 2020: R+44.0 2016: R+48.4 2012: R+43.8 2008: R+33.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -29.36%
• Current HPI: 157.7946
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-9.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-04 Relisted — Hays MLS
• 2026-04-04 Price Changed $89,000 Hays MLS
• 2026-04-01 Delisted — Hays MLS
• 2025-11-21 Listed $98,000 Hays MLS

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,024 · +10.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.