6467 Chestnut Ridge Rd · North Boston, NY 14127

$199,900

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,806 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1957 2.00 ac lot $111/sqft · 58% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Opportunity awaits at 6467 Chestnut Ridge Rd in Orchard Park! Situated on 2.64 acres, this 5-bedroom, 1.5-bath brick Cape Cod offers incredible potential for investors, flippers, handymen, or buyers looking to build sweat equity. Included in the sale is a separate buildable . 64-acre lot, offering additional possibilities for future development or a second residence. With over 1,800 square feet, solid bones, and a newer tear-off roof, this property is ready for someone to bring their vision to life. Features include hardwood floors, a heated sunroom off the kitchen, and endless opportunity to update and customize throughout. The expansive property provides room for recreation, gardening, ad

Key facts

• 2.64 acres
• Heated sunroom
• Room for recreation

Tags

• 2.64 ACRES
• BUILDABLE LOT
• HEATED SUNROOM
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• ROOM FOR RECREATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $259 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 2.0% in North Boston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#988 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A, housing A, cost of living B; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Orchard Park Central School District (suburban): math 57% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #158 of 590 in NY (top 27%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 145 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $99k (33%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price; built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $199,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.55%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $476,589
• List price: $199,900
• Delta: -37.26%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6606 Gartman Rd	0.25mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,016 (+12%)	1mo	$505,000	$250	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-15,761
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.14×
• Total profit: $8,114
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14127

• Home prices YoY: -33.6%
• Active inventory: 145
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,319 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$442 /mo · $5,299/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$487
• Net cashflow: $259

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,991

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-05
   statusdays on market $199,900 Pending 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $199,900 Active 9 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $199,900 Active 8 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $199,900 Active 7 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $199,900 Active 6 DOM
6. 2026-05-10
   historical
7. 2026-03-12
   status Active
8. 2025-11-30
   status Pending
9. 2025-11-10
   listed $299,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,299 · $442/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,299 · $442/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 4 d/yr ≥89°F today · 9 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,827
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$5,299
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,226
• − Management: −$2,226
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable income: $63
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$15
• After-tax cash flow: $3,090/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Orchard Park Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3621900
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $79,354
• Composite: 57.97/100
• National rank: #1039
• State rank: #158 of 590 in NY

Livability — North Boston

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #988
• US rank: #19330

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 31,543
• Household income: $109,386
• Rent vs Own: 26.0% rent · 74.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 428.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 16% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -151.52%
• Current HPI: 298.7896
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-10 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2026-03-12 Relisted — WNYREIS
• 2025-11-30 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2025-11-10 Listed $299,000 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,299 · +2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.