5952 Blue Sky Ln · Hope Mills, NC 28348

$314,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,034 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 12 Days on market

Built 2007 Est $307k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.6/30.0
• ARV discount +6.4/15.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This well-maintained 4-bedroom, 2-bath home offers 2032 square feet of comfortable living space and numerous recent upgrades. Enjoy professionally installed high-end LVP flooring (2025), a vinyl privacy fence (2025), Bluetooth-enabled bathroom exhaust fans, and a pre-wired storage building. The spacious floor plan features a cozy fireplace, generous bedrooms, and an owner's suite with large his-and-hers closets. Step outside to a private, fenced backyard complete with a gazebo and patio—perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Additional updates include roof shingles replaced in 2016, professionally painted downstairs interior and exterior (2020), and Stainmaster Pet Protect carpet in th

Key facts

• Gazebo
• Storage shed
• Patio

Tags

• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• GAZEBO
• PATIO
• STORAGE SHED
• WELL-APPOINTED KITCHEN

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in the Bridlewood subdivision

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage (2 covered spaces)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Propane service available
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential zoning (R10 - Residential District)
• Construction: Brick, fiber cement and vinyl siding exterior
• Exterior features: Therapeutic whirlpool (accessibility feature)

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Microwave; Stainless steel appliances
• Bedrooms: Total 6 rooms (bedroom count not specified)
• Flooring: Tile; Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans for added cooling
• Interior features: Tray ceilings; Ceiling fans; Built-in sound system (wired for sound); Gas/Propane fireplace in dining room
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $315k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-98 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $298k (5.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $232k (26.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $232k (26.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.8% in Hope Mills — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#234 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Cumberland County Schools (urban): math 32% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #126 of 178 in NC (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Gray'S Creek Middle (math 33% / reading 48%, grade F, #215 of 475 statewide, top 46%, 1,126 students, 50% FRL); Gray'S Creek High (math 61% / reading 58%, grade C+, #216 of 535 statewide, top 43%, 1,395 students, 44% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 50% at this address vs 36% district-wide (+14 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Cumberland County Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 317 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,125 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $115k; list at $315k implies a 174% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $232,001 (26.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.33%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $307,134
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5713 Lady Way	0.16mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,013 (-1%)	5mo	$280,000	$139	79
5925 Blue Sky Ln	0.11mi	4/3.0	2,167 (+6%)	2mo	$220,000	$102	78
5904 Blue Sky Ln	0.19mi	4/2.5	2,136 (+5%)	5mo	$300,000	$140	77
1212 Thistle Gold Dr	0.40mi	4/2.5	2,061 (+1%)	3mo	$320,000	$155	75
1111 Thistle Gold Dr	0.53mi	4/2.0	2,003 (-2%)	3mo	$279,000	$139	70
1024 Greenhouse Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,059 (+1%)	5mo	$317,000	$154	68
5845 Blue Sky Ln	0.26mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,121 (+4%)	6mo	$320,000	$151	68
5908 Gentleman Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,201 (+8%)	8mo	$310,000	$141	64
5704 Gentleman Dr	0.28mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,232 (+10%)	2mo	$353,000	$158	60
5630 Prestonfield Ln	0.51mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,766 (-13%)	7mo	$270,000	$153	43
5609 Prestonfield Ln	0.55mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,778 (-13%)	4mo	$295,000	$166	43
1010 Kenan Dr	0.45mi	4/3.0	2,336 (+15%)	11mo	$285,000	$122	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.28% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-54,360
• Equity at exit: $46,953

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-43,099
• Equity at exit: $27,227

Cash invested: $88,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28348

• Home prices YoY: -14.0%
• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 317
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,320 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,651
• Tax from tax record: −$148 /mo · $1,779/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$487
• Net cashflow: $-98

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,444

Max offer price $297,585

Occupancy floor 99%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,725
• Closing costs: $9,447
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5619 Walking Trail Way Hope Mills, NC	4.0	3.0	2003	$2,000	$1.00	13d	1	0.34mi
1233 Screech Owl Dr Hope Mills, NC	4.0	3.0	2260	$2,150	$0.95	23d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-19
   status $314,900 Pending 12 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $314,900 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $314,900 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $314,900 Active 10 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $314,900 Active 9 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $314,900 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $314,900 Active 6 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $314,900 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $314,900 Active 3 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    remarks 693-char remark
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $314,900 Active 2 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    remarks 405-char remark
13. 2026-06-07
    listed $314,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,779 · $148/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,582 · $215/mo
• Expected delta: +$803/yr (+$67/mo · 45.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,840
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,639
• − Property taxes: −$1,779
• − Insurance: −$1,574
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,227
• − Management: −$2,227
• − Depreciation: −$9,161
• Taxable loss: −$6,768
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,624
• After-tax cash flow: $448/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cumberland County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700011
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,168
• Composite: 31.0/100
• National rank: #6096
• State rank: #126 of 178 in NC

Livability — Hope Mills

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #234
• US rank: #10761

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Cumberland County · 265,314 people
• City population: 39,196
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• Population (ZIP): 39,196
• Household income: $66,129
• Rent vs Own: 25.2% rent · 74.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 746.0

Population outlook (Cumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 330,855 people
• By 2030: 333,523 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 335,583 · +1.4%
• By 2050: 335,325 · +1.4%
• By 2075: 342,853 · +3.6%
• By 2100: 340,698 · +3.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Black 27% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 11% Asian 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cumberland

• 2024 margin: D (+13.4) · D 56.1% · R 42.7% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.3pp toward R · 2008: 17.7pp · 2024: 13.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.4 2020: D+16.6 2016: D+16.0 2012: D+19.7 2008: D+17.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -37.14%
• Current HPI: 228.3122
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.28%
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+173.8% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $314,900 LPRMLS
• 2006-12-04 Sold (Public Records) $115,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,779 · +0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.