20 Morris Creek Rd · Coldspring, TX 77331

$165,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured public records · 180 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 2024 Good condition 1.16 ac lot $136/sqft · 28% below area Est $230k · 28% under ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.4/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -3.7

Listing remarks MLS

Tired of the city chaos? This pristine 3 bed 2 bath beauty sits on over an acre of pure unrestricted freedom. Immaculately maintained, move in ready, and just waiting for you to claim it. Far enough from the rat race to breathe easy, yet just a quick jaunt to downtown Huntsville or Coldspring for your coffee and civilization fix. Lake life calling your name? You're under 10 minutes from the nearest boat ramp, perfect for lazy days on the water. Completely unrestricted! Want chickens clucking for fresh eggs every morning? Goats judging your life choices? A little home butchery setup? Soap-making empire in the garage? This land says YES to all your homesteading fantasies. The home, septic system, meter pole and water connection is all less than 2 years old! All on the corner of paved roads! Your new forever home is waiting but it won't wait forever.

Key facts

• 1.16 acre lot
• Built 2024
• Listed 179 days

Tags

• QUICK JAUNT TO DOWNTOWN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $165k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-57 ($-689/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $155k (6.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $118k (28.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $118k (28.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 2.9% in Coldspring — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#1,357 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Coldspring-Oakhurst CISD (rural): math 18% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #732 of 826 in TX (top 89%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Street El (449 students, 70% FRL); Lincoln J H (math 14% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,387 of 1,662 statewide, top 85%, 347 students, 58% FRL); Coldspring-Oakhurst H S (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,044 of 1,632 statewide, top 66%, 496 students, 55% FRL) — zoned schools at 61% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 412 active listings in the ZIP; 575 units permitted in San Jacinto County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Jacinto County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 180 days — a 12% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $118,443 (28.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 180 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.88%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.49%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $230,000
• List price: $165,000
• Delta: -28.26%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
159 Saddle Surrey Rd	0.96mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+18%)	3mo	$230,000	$160	38
280 The Woods Rd	0.73mi	3/1.0	954 (-22%)	1mo	$90,000	$94	36
44 Debbie Ct	1.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,152 (-5%)	20mo	$185,000	$161	35
191 Harvey Bryant Rd	1.48mi	3/2.0	1,428 (+17%)	12mo	$139,900	$98	30
4040 State Highway 156	1.27mi	3/2.0	1,456 (+20%)	12mo	$175,000	$120	30
111 Saddle Surrey Rd	0.99mi	3/2.0	1,368 (+12%)	24mo	$119,999	$88	24
350 Stage Coach Rd	1.17mi	3/2.0	1,512 (+24%)	29mo	$250,000	$165	20
1601 Snow Hill Rd	1.16mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,456 (+20%)	30mo	$165,000	$113	15

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-30,469
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-31,538
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 1 active
• Months of supply: 6.0 mo (17%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $229,000 ($157/sqft)
• Median days on market: 23 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: +20.3% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77331

• Active inventory: 412
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,184 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$59 /mo · $709/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$249
• Net cashflow: $-57

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,257

Max offer price $154,851

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $36	-5% $-11	+0% $-57	+5% $-104	+10% $-151
Rent	-10% $-151	-5% $-104	+0% $-57	+5% $-11	+10% $36
Rate	-1.0pp $26	-0.5pp $-15	base $-57	+0.5pp $-100	+1.0pp $-144

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-07-25
   days on market $165,000 Active 180 DOM
2. 2026-07-23
   days on market $165,000 Active 178 DOM
3. 2026-07-22
   days on market $165,000 Active 177 DOM
4. 2026-07-21
   days on market $165,000 Active 176 DOM
5. 2026-07-18
   days on market $165,000 Active 173 DOM
6. 2026-07-16
   days on market $165,000 Active 171 DOM
7. 2026-07-16
   pricedays on market $165,000 Active 170 DOM
8. 2026-07-14
   days on market $175,000 Active 169 DOM
9. 2026-07-13
   days on market $175,000 Active 168 DOM
10. 2026-07-12
    days on market $175,000 Active 167 DOM
11. 2026-07-11
    days on market $175,000 Active 166 DOM
12. 2026-07-10
    days on market $175,000 Active 165 DOM
13. 2026-07-09
    days on market $175,000 Active 164 DOM
14. 2026-07-08
    days on market $175,000 Active 163 DOM
15. 2026-07-07
    days on market $175,000 Active 162 DOM
16. 2026-07-06
    days on market $175,000 Active 161 DOM
17. 2026-07-05
    days on market $175,000 Active 160 DOM
18. 2026-07-04
    days on market $175,000 Active 159 DOM
19. 2026-07-03
    days on market $175,000 Active 158 DOM
20. 2026-07-02
    days on market $175,000 Active 157 DOM
21. 2026-07-01
    days on market $175,000 Active 156 DOM
22. 2026-06-30
    days on market $175,000 Active 155 DOM
23. 2026-06-29
    days on market $175,000 Active 154 DOM
24. 2026-06-28
    days on market $175,000 Active 153 DOM
25. 2026-06-28
    days on market $175,000 Active 152 DOM
26. 2026-06-27
    days on market $175,000 Active 151 DOM
27. 2026-06-26
    days on market $175,000 Active 150 DOM
28. 2026-06-23
    days on market $175,000 Active 147 DOM
29. 2026-06-21
    days on market $175,000 Active 146 DOM
30. 2026-06-19
    days on market $175,000 Active 144 DOM
31. 2026-06-18
    days on market $175,000 Active 143 DOM
32. 2026-06-17
    days on market $175,000 Active 142 DOM
33. 2026-06-16
    days on market $175,000 Active 141 DOM
34. 2026-06-15
    days on market $175,000 Active 140 DOM
35. 2026-06-14
    days on market $175,000 Active 138 DOM
36. 2026-06-13
    days on market $175,000 Active 137 DOM
37. 2026-06-10
    days on market $175,000 Active 135 DOM
38. 2026-06-09
    days on market $175,000 Active 134 DOM
39. 2026-06-08
    days on market $175,000 Active 133 DOM
40. 2026-06-07
    days on market $175,000 Active 132 DOM
41. 2026-06-03
    days on market $175,000 Active 128 DOM
42. 2026-06-02
    days on market $175,000 Active 127 DOM
43. 2026-06-01
    days on market $175,000 Active 126 DOM
44. 2026-05-31
    days on market $175,000 Active 125 DOM
45. 2026-05-30
    days on market $175,000 Active 124 DOM
46. 2026-05-13
    price $175,000 859-char remark

    Show marketing remark (859 chars)

    Tired of the city chaos? This pristine 3 bed 2 bath beauty sits on over an acre of pure unrestricted freedom. Immaculately maintained, move in ready, and just waiting for you to claim it. Far enough from the rat race to breathe easy, yet just a quick jaunt to downtown Huntsville or Coldspring for your coffee and civilization fix. Lake life calling your name? You're under 10 minutes from the nearest boat ramp, perfect for lazy days on the water. Completely unrestricted! Want chickens clucking for fresh eggs every morning? Goats judging your life choices? A little home butchery setup? Soap-making empire in the garage? This land says YES to all your homesteading fantasies. The home, septic system, meter pole and water connection is all less than 2 years old! All on the corner of paved roads! Your new forever home is waiting but it won't wait forever.

47. 2026-04-02
    price $185,000 859-char remark

    Show marketing remark (859 chars)

    Tired of the city chaos? This pristine 3 bed 2 bath beauty sits on over an acre of pure unrestricted freedom. Immaculately maintained, move in ready, and just waiting for you to claim it. Far enough from the rat race to breathe easy, yet just a quick jaunt to downtown Huntsville or Coldspring for your coffee and civilization fix. Lake life calling your name? You're under 10 minutes from the nearest boat ramp, perfect for lazy days on the water. Completely unrestricted! Want chickens clucking for fresh eggs every morning? Goats judging your life choices? A little home butchery setup? Soap-making empire in the garage? This land says YES to all your homesteading fantasies. The home, septic system, meter pole and water connection is all less than 2 years old! All on the corner of paved roads! Your new forever home is waiting but it won't wait forever.

48. 2026-03-16
    price $190,000 859-char remark

    Show marketing remark (859 chars)

    Tired of the city chaos? This pristine 3 bed 2 bath beauty sits on over an acre of pure unrestricted freedom. Immaculately maintained, move in ready, and just waiting for you to claim it. Far enough from the rat race to breathe easy, yet just a quick jaunt to downtown Huntsville or Coldspring for your coffee and civilization fix. Lake life calling your name? You're under 10 minutes from the nearest boat ramp, perfect for lazy days on the water. Completely unrestricted! Want chickens clucking for fresh eggs every morning? Goats judging your life choices? A little home butchery setup? Soap-making empire in the garage? This land says YES to all your homesteading fantasies. The home, septic system, meter pole and water connection is all less than 2 years old! All on the corner of paved roads! Your new forever home is waiting but it won't wait forever.

49. 2026-02-24
    price $195,000 859-char remark

    Show marketing remark (859 chars)

    Tired of the city chaos? This pristine 3 bed 2 bath beauty sits on over an acre of pure unrestricted freedom. Immaculately maintained, move in ready, and just waiting for you to claim it. Far enough from the rat race to breathe easy, yet just a quick jaunt to downtown Huntsville or Coldspring for your coffee and civilization fix. Lake life calling your name? You're under 10 minutes from the nearest boat ramp, perfect for lazy days on the water. Completely unrestricted! Want chickens clucking for fresh eggs every morning? Goats judging your life choices? A little home butchery setup? Soap-making empire in the garage? This land says YES to all your homesteading fantasies. The home, septic system, meter pole and water connection is all less than 2 years old! All on the corner of paved roads! Your new forever home is waiting but it won't wait forever.

50. 2026-01-26
    listed $200,000 Active 859-char remark

    Show marketing remark (859 chars)

    Tired of the city chaos? This pristine 3 bed 2 bath beauty sits on over an acre of pure unrestricted freedom. Immaculately maintained, move in ready, and just waiting for you to claim it. Far enough from the rat race to breathe easy, yet just a quick jaunt to downtown Huntsville or Coldspring for your coffee and civilization fix. Lake life calling your name? You're under 10 minutes from the nearest boat ramp, perfect for lazy days on the water. Completely unrestricted! Want chickens clucking for fresh eggs every morning? Goats judging your life choices? A little home butchery setup? Soap-making empire in the garage? This land says YES to all your homesteading fantasies. The home, septic system, meter pole and water connection is all less than 2 years old! All on the corner of paved roads! Your new forever home is waiting but it won't wait forever.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $709 · $59/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,020 · $252/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,310/yr (+$193/mo · 325.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,213
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$709
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,137
• − Management: −$1,137
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable loss: −$3,638
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$873
• After-tax cash flow: $184/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $6,080–$18,240 screening

This move-in ready manufactured home is in good condition with modern finishes and a spacious layout. Potential exists for landscaping and painting to further enhance its appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Painting — Fresh paint can make a home look more inviting ↑
• Both Landscaping — Landscaping can add value and curb appeal ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 26/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Street El Middle Lincoln J H F TX #1,387/1,662 Nat'l #11,464/14,009 High Coldspring-Oakhurst H S F TX #1,044/1,632 Nat'l #10,416/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Coldspring-Oakhurst CISD
• NCES district ID: 4814520
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $46,916
• Composite: 20.07/100
• National rank: #8653
• State rank: #732 of 826 in TX

D Composite livability gradescore 55/100

Livability — Coldspring

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #1357
• US rank: #23364

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: San Jacinto · 29,069 people
• Metro: Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, TX
• Population (ZIP): 7,348
• Household income: $50,321
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 8% of renters

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Population outlook (San Jacinto County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 29,069 people
• By 2030: 29,750 · +2.3%
• By 2040: 30,714 · +5.7%
• By 2050: 31,010 · +6.7%
• By 2075: 31,616 · +8.8%
• By 2100: 29,874 · +2.8%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Black 13% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5% Arabic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · San Jacinto

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.3) · D 17.0% · R 82.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.0pp toward R · 2008: -38.3pp · 2024: -65.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.3 2020: R+61.9 2016: R+58.4 2012: R+48.9 2008: R+38.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -146.98%
• Current HPI: 199.0493
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-12.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $175,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $185,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-16 Price Changed $190,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-24 Price Changed $195,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-26 Listed $200,000 HARMLS