10303 Bison Ave · Odessa, TX 79765

$285,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,645 sqft · SingleFamily · 8 Days on market

Built 2026 4,791 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The 1,650 square-foot Rosa floor plan is spacious and open with added touches that make all the difference. Brick exterior with covered entryLuxury vinyl plank flooring in main areasOpen-concept kitchen, living, and dining areaGranite or quartz countertops throughoutSpacious kitchen island with bar seatingStainless steel appliancesEnclosed pantryCorner brick fireplacePrivate primary suite with walk-in closet, drop-in tub, and walk-in showerCovered back patio

Key facts

• 4,791 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Active listing; Address: 10303 Bison Ave, Odessa TX 79765
• Financial info: List price available

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Has heating; Has cooling
• Home design: Spec new construction (Plan: Rosa)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,645

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $285k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-10 ($-123/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $284k (0.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $248k (13.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $248k (13.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#132 in TX, #3,928 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute D+, amenities D.
• Ector County ISD (urban): math 22% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #707 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Barbara Jordan El (math 33% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,744 of 4,322 statewide, top 41%, 854 students, 51% FRL); Wilson & Young Medal of Honor Middle (math 14% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,341 of 1,662 statewide, top 82%, 1,245 students, 56% FRL); Permian H S (math 19% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,333 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 3,978 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools at 53% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 433 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,004 units permitted in Ector County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ector County population projected at +78% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $248,019 (13.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.15%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.54% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-52,787
• Equity at exit: $42,494

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-70,057
• Equity at exit: $24,642

Cash invested: $79,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79765

• Home prices YoY: -28.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 433
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,480 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,495
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$356 /mo · $4,275/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$521
• Net cashflow: $-10

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,493

Max offer price $283,522

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $187	-5% $88	+0% $-10	+5% $-109	+10% $-207
Rent	-10% $-206	-5% $-108	+0% $-10	+5% $88	+10% $186
Rate	-1.0pp $133	-0.5pp $62	base $-10	+0.5pp $-84	+1.0pp $-159

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,250
• Closing costs: $8,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 25 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
301 Panhandle Dr Odessa, TX	4.0	2.0	2050	$2,950	$1.44	45d	1	0.20mi
10306 Sheriff St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1240	$2,050	$1.65	15d	1	0.26mi
9918 Lamar Ave Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1596	$2,400	$1.50	15d	1	0.28mi
320 Panhandle Dr Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1595	$2,500	$1.57	45d	1	0.30mi
10310 Creek St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1238	$2,300	$1.86	15d	1	0.31mi
401 Farmstead Ln Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1390	$2,500	$1.80	45d	1	0.36mi
404 Pratt Dr Odessa, TX	4.0	2.0	1700	$2,800	$1.65	45d	1	0.39mi
9914 Rainbow Dr Odessa, TX	4.0	2.0	2069	$3,200	$1.55	45d	1	0.53mi
310 E 95th St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1390	$2,300	$1.65	23d	1	0.58mi
618 Juniper Ct Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1606	$2,700	$1.68	15d	1	0.61mi
713 E 96th St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1564	$2,500	$1.60	45d	1	0.75mi
9219 Holiday Dr Odessa, TX	3.0	2.5	2118	$2,800	$1.32	45d	1	0.77mi
819 E 97th Ct Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1635	$2,350	$1.44	15d	1	0.83mi
808 E 96th St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$2,350	$1.59	45d	1	0.86mi
900 E 96th St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1644	$2,300	$1.40	45d	1	0.91mi
800 E 92nd St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	2005	$2,550	$1.27	45d	1	1.02mi
216 E 91st St Odessa, TX	3.0	3.0	1602	$2,500	$1.56	15d	1	1.03mi
1306 E 94th St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1488	$2,350	$1.58	23d	1	1.18mi
1109 Wagon Way Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1515	$2,400	$1.58	15d	1	1.21mi
1303 Terra Cotta St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1377	$1,999	$1.45	45d	1	1.22mi
9017 Pepper Grass Ave Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1778	$2,500	$1.41	45d	1	1.33mi
1025 Pine Leaf Pl Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1411	$2,200	$1.56	45d	1	1.35mi
1226 E 92nd St Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1526	$2,250	$1.47	15d	1	1.42mi
9031 Antelope Ave Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1923	$2,500	$1.30	45d	1	1.45mi
8732 Rainbow Dr Odessa, TX	3.0	2.0	1573	$2,400	$1.53	45d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $285,000 Active 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $285,000 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   price $285,000 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $291,830 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $291,830 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $291,830 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $291,830 Active 2 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   days on marketlisting id $291,830 Active 1 DOM
9. 2026-06-13
   days on market $291,830 Active 189 DOM
10. 2026-06-10
    days on market $291,830 Active 187 DOM
11. 2026-06-09
    days on market $291,830 Active 186 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $291,830 Active 185 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    statusdays on market $291,830 Active 184 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 73% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,762
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,964
• − Property taxes: −$4,275
• − Insurance: −$1,425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,381
• − Management: −$2,381
• − Depreciation: −$8,291
• Taxable loss: −$4,955
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,189
• After-tax cash flow: $1,067/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ector County ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818000
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $52,740
• Composite: 21.89/100
• National rank: #8233
• State rank: #707 of 826 in TX

Livability — Odessa

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #132
• US rank: #3928

Category grades

Amenities D Commute D+ Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Odessa, TX
• County: Ector County · 131,169 people
• City population: 131,169
• Metro: Odessa, TX
• Population (ZIP): 25,904
• Household income: $104,965
• Rent vs Own: 35.4% rent · 64.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 884.0

Population outlook (Ector County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 212,765 people
• By 2030: 241,962 · +13.7%
• By 2040: 306,582 · +44.1%
• By 2050: 379,755 · +78.5%
• By 2075: 568,991 · +167.4%
• By 2100: 709,829 · +233.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 41% Two or more races 15% Black 5% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 45%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 31% German/W. Germanic 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ector

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.9) · D 23.2% · R 76.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.9pp toward R · 2008: -48.0pp · 2024: -52.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.9 2020: R+47.8 2016: R+40.6 2012: R+48.9 2008: R+48.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -69.68%
• Current HPI: 173.4252
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.54%
• Metro: Odessa, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B