16222 Bergara Bend Dr · Cleveland, TX 77327

$164,991

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,311 sqft · SingleFamily · 47 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $126/sqft · 33% below area Est $245k · 33% under $192/mo HOA · 10% of rent ↓ 27% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

NEW! Lennar Cottage Collection in Timbers Edge! The Oakridge plan with Elevation "H3" reveals a spacious single story showcasing an open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are ideal for household members and hosting overnight guests.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Secondary bedrooms

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $165k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $173 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $160k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 4.7% in Cleveland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,013 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Splendora ISD (rural): math 25% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #648 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Piney Woods El (math 23% / reading 28%, grade F, #2,982 of 4,322 statewide, top 70%, 534 students, 55% FRL); Splendora J H (math 28% / reading 42%, grade F, #842 of 1,662 statewide, top 51%, 774 students, 62% FRL); Splendora H S (math 18% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,170 of 1,632 statewide, top 72%, 1,344 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools at 59% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 1577 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $160,041 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.48%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $244,590
• List price: $164,991
• Delta: -32.54%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16246 Bergara Bend Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,311 (0%)	0mo	$231,990	$177	100
16206 Bergara Bend Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,311 (0%)	1mo	$231,990	$177	99
16218 Bergara Bend Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,409 (+8%)	1mo	$235,990	$167	83
16226 Bergara Bend Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,418 (+8%)	1mo	$243,990	$172	82
16229 Bergara Bend Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,451 (+11%)	1mo	$235,990	$163	78
21344 Pine Mill Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,412 (+8%)	3mo	$222,000	$157	67
20807 Olive Leaf St	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,444 (+10%)	4mo	$225,000	$156	62
15332 Timber Preserve Ln	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,448 (+10%)	11mo	$225,000	$155	62
21328 Pine Mill Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,479 (+13%)	4mo	$195,960	$132	56
21510 Rolling Streams	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,206 (-8%)	10mo	$229,990	$191	44
21514 Rolling Streams Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,429 (+9%)	12mo	$219,990	$154	42
20723 Southern Woods Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,506 (+15%)	4mo	$215,000	$143	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-13,661
• Equity at exit: $24,601

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.24×
• Total profit: $10,960
• Equity at exit: $14,265

Cash invested: $46,197 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77327

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 1577
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,905 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$206 /mo · $2,475/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$192
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$400
• Net cashflow: $173

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,686

Max offer price $164,991

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $287	-5% $230	+0% $173	+5% $116	+10% $59
Rent	-10% $22	-5% $97	+0% $173	+5% $248	+10% $323
Rate	-1.0pp $256	-0.5pp $215	base $173	+0.5pp $130	+1.0pp $86

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,248
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15019 Ashton Meadows Dr New Caney, TX	3.0	2.0	1501	$1,790	$1.19	26d	1	0.71mi
14255 Timber Fields Way New Caney, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1797	$1,622	$0.90	7d	57	1.19mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $192 · $2,304/yr

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-02
   days on market $164,991 Active 47 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $164,991 Active 46 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $164,991 Active 45 DOM
4. 2026-05-15
   price $169,991 520-char remark

   Show marketing remark (520 chars)

   NEW! Lennar Cottage Collection in Timbers Edge! The Oakridge plan with Elevation "H3" reveals a spacious single story showcasing an open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are ideal for household members and hosting overnight guests.

5. 2026-05-07
   price $169,990 520-char remark

   Show marketing remark (520 chars)

   NEW! Lennar Cottage Collection in Timbers Edge! The Oakridge plan with Elevation "H3" reveals a spacious single story showcasing an open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are ideal for household members and hosting overnight guests.

6. 2026-05-04
   price $189,990 520-char remark

   Show marketing remark (520 chars)

   NEW! Lennar Cottage Collection in Timbers Edge! The Oakridge plan with Elevation "H3" reveals a spacious single story showcasing an open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are ideal for household members and hosting overnight guests.

7. 2026-04-29
   price $196,790 520-char remark

   Show marketing remark (520 chars)

   NEW! Lennar Cottage Collection in Timbers Edge! The Oakridge plan with Elevation "H3" reveals a spacious single story showcasing an open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are ideal for household members and hosting overnight guests.

8. 2026-04-16
   price $199,990 520-char remark

   Show marketing remark (520 chars)

   NEW! Lennar Cottage Collection in Timbers Edge! The Oakridge plan with Elevation "H3" reveals a spacious single story showcasing an open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are ideal for household members and hosting overnight guests.

9. 2026-04-16
   listed $231,990 Active 520-char remark

   Show marketing remark (520 chars)

   NEW! Lennar Cottage Collection in Timbers Edge! The Oakridge plan with Elevation "H3" reveals a spacious single story showcasing an open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are ideal for household members and hosting overnight guests.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,858
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,242
• − Property taxes: −$2,475
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,829
• − Management: −$1,829
• − HOA: −$2,304
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable loss: −$445
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$107
• After-tax cash flow: $2,178/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-family home in Woodbranch, TX is in good condition with a good exterior and interior. It has a spacious floor plan and is move-in ready. Minor updates to the exterior and smart home features would significantly increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Install smart home security system — Improves safety and adds modern amenities
• Both Add smart thermostat — Saves energy and adds modern amenities

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Install smart home security system — Improves safety and adds modern amenities ↑
• Both Add smart thermostat — Saves energy and adds modern amenities ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Splendora ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841070
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $54,166
• Composite: 24.92/100
• National rank: #7572
• State rank: #648 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cleveland

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1013
• US rank: #17943

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Liberty County · 82,189 people
• City population: 17,208
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 42,685
• Household income: $62,219
• Rent vs Own: 14.4% rent · 85.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 437.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 36% Two or more races 18% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1% Slovak 0%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 48%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.39%
• Current HPI: 224.9222
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.00%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-26.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $169,991 HARMLS
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $169,990 HARMLS
• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $189,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $196,790 HARMLS
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $199,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-16 Listed $231,990 HARMLS