406 Burns Ave · Springfield, MN 56087

$99,500

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,460 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 205 Days on market

Built 1915 7,100 sqft lot $68/sqft · 263% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.4/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located across from the ballfields and close to the school and park, this 4 bedroom, 2 bathroom home features a remodeled upstairs with a full kitchen, bathroom, living room, bedrooms, and a separate access, allowing for great potential of separate living quarters from the main level. The deep backyard has nice shade coverage and plenty of space for a garage addition if desired. New shingles, downspouts, gutters, and leaf guards in 2025.

Key facts

• Full kitchen
• Shade coverage
• Separate access

Tags

• REMODELED UPSTAIRS
• FULL KITCHEN
• SEPARATE ACCESS
• DEEP BACKYARD
• SHADE COVERAGE
• GARAGE ADDITION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $409 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#144 in MN, #3,112 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Springfield Public School District (rural): math 65% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #31 of 301 in MN (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 10 active listings in the ZIP; 41 units permitted in Brown County in 2024 (18 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($688 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (4.9% local appreciation)).
• Brown County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 205 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1915 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $87,560 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 205 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1915 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.61%
• DSCR: 1.78
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $29,609
• List price: $99,500
• Delta: 236.05%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

4.87% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.73×
• Total profit: $48,203
• Equity at exit: $55,590

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.43×
• Total profit: $123,522
• Equity at exit: $95,289

Cash invested: $27,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 56087

• Home prices YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 10
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,288 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$522
• Tax from tax record: −$46 /mo · $548/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$271
• Net cashflow: $409

Break-even live

Break-even rent $771

Max offer price $99,500

Occupancy floor 63%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,875
• Closing costs: $2,985
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-12
   statusdays on market $99,500 Pending 205 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,500 Active 203 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,500 Active 202 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $99,500 Active 201 DOM
5. 2026-06-05
   days on market $99,500 Active 199 DOM
6. 2026-06-04
   days on market $99,500 Active 197 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $99,500 Active 196 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $99,500 Active 195 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $99,500 Active 194 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,500 Active 193 DOM
11. 2025-11-17
    listed $99,500 Active 441-char remark

    Show marketing remark (441 chars)

    Located across from the ballfields and close to the school and park, this 4 bedroom, 2 bathroom home features a remodeled upstairs with a full kitchen, bathroom, living room, bedrooms, and a separate access, allowing for great potential of separate living quarters from the main level. The deep backyard has nice shade coverage and plenty of space for a garage addition if desired. New shingles, downspouts, gutters, and leaf guards in 2025.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $548 · $46/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $831 · $69/mo
• Expected delta: +$283/yr (+$24/mo · 51.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,461
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,574
• − Property taxes: −$548
• − Insurance: −$498
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,237
• − Management: −$1,237
• − Depreciation: −$2,895
• Taxable income: $3,474
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$834
• After-tax cash flow: $4,074/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Springfield Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2733390
• Math proficiency: 65% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,894
• Composite: 53.8/100
• National rank: #1416
• State rank: #31 of 301 in MN

Livability — Springfield

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #144
• US rank: #3112

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Springfield, MN
• City population: 3,240
• Population (ZIP): 3,240

Population outlook (Brown County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,403 people
• By 2030: 23,790 · -2.5%
• By 2040: 22,309 · -8.6%
• By 2050: 20,948 · -14.2%
• By 2075: 19,038 · -22.0%
• By 2100: 16,658 · -31.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Black 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 10% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brown

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+35.2) · D 31.5% · R 66.7% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.1pp toward R · 2008: -12.1pp · 2024: -35.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+35.2 2020: R+32.8 2016: R+36.2 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+12.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.87%
• Current HPI: 248.6156
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-11-17 Listed $99,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+8.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $548 · +7.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.