3109 E Orlando Rd · Springfield, FL 32405

$104,900

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,369 sqft · Townhouse public records · 49 Days on market

Built 1984 $77/sqft · 8% above area Est $97k · 8% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• ARV discount +3.8/15.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This home offers solid potential and good bones. Townhome centrally located, features 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, and an open kitchen/living/dining area with a wood-burning fireplace. The garage features a bathroom and could be converted to a living space. It is convenient to schools and shopping. The electric meter has been pulled, and inspection and repairs will be required before power will be restored. It has great bones and just needs some work. All information, measurements, and dimensions are approximate, and the buyer is to verify any pertinent information.

Key facts

• Centrally located
• Garage
• Built 1984

Tags

• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• GARAGE FEATURES BATHROOM
• CENTRALLY LOCATED

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Short-term rentals allowed

Exterior

• Parking: 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Wood-frame construction; Slab foundation; City street frontage; Publicly maintained road
• Construction: Wood frame construction; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Patio; Paved lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom; Second-floor bedroom (10 x 10); Second-floor bedroom (14 x 13)
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Living room with large dimensions (19 x 18); Patio access

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $105k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $480 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $105k).
• Recommended offer: $102k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.2% vs local median 4.7% in Springfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#826 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, employment D, crime F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 381 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $725 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.2% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($102k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 11 sale attempts since 27y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $63k; list at $105k implies a 67% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $101,753 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.61% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.74%
• DSCR: 2.10
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $96,959
• List price: $104,900
• Delta: 8.19%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.24% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.37×
• Total profit: $10,770
• Equity at exit: $15,641

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.28×
• Total profit: $37,578
• Equity at exit: $9,070

Cash invested: $29,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32405

• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 381
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,686 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$550
• Tax from tax record: −$132 /mo · $1,587/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$354
• Net cashflow: $480

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,078

Max offer price $104,900

Occupancy floor 66%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $540	-5% $510	+0% $480	+5% $451	+10% $421
Rent	-10% $347	-5% $414	+0% $480	+5% $547	+10% $614
Rate	-1.0pp $533	-0.5pp $507	base $480	+0.5pp $453	+1.0pp $426

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,225
• Closing costs: $3,147
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3530 Game Farm Rd Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,500	$1.50	14d	1	0.59mi
3525 T St Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,600	$1.28	21d	1	0.60mi
3611 Eagle Ln Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	943	$1,350	$1.43	14d	1	0.65mi
2433 Wakulla Ave Panama City, FL	4.0	2.0	1612	$1,600	$0.99	14d	1	0.67mi
2732 Usery Rd Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,500	$1.50	14d	1	0.70mi
3641 T St Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	900	$1,100	$1.22	14d	1	0.72mi
3733 Avon Rd Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1251	$1,900	$1.52	21d	1	0.88mi
3545 Brentwood Pl Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1617	$2,200	$1.36	21d	1	0.95mi
2733 Carol Ln Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	950	$1,750	$1.84	21d	1	0.98mi
2601 Avondale Ct Panama City, FL	3.0	2.5	1371	$1,700	$1.24	14d	1	0.99mi
2611 Avondale Ct Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1212	$1,495	$1.23	21d	1	1.01mi
2416 Camryns Xing Panama City, FL	4.0	2.0	1867	$2,100	$1.12	21d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $104,900 Active 49 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $104,900 Active 48 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $104,900 Active 47 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $104,900 Active 46 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $104,900 Active 45 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $104,900 Active 43 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $104,900 Active 42 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $104,900 Active 40 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $104,900 Active 39 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $104,900 Active 38 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $104,900 Active 37 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $104,900 Active 34 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $104,900 Active 33 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $104,900 Active 32 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $104,900 Active 31 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $104,900 Active 30 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $104,900 Active 29 DOM
18. 2026-04-30
    listed $109,900 Active 566-char remark
19. 2025-11-13
    historical
20. 2025-08-20
    historical Active Under Contract
21. 2025-07-24
    status Active
22. 2025-07-21
    status Pending
23. 2025-07-04
    listed $95,000 Active
24. 2025-03-11
    historical
25. 2025-02-17
    price $98,000
26. 2025-02-11
    listed $155,000 Active
27. 2024-10-31
    historical
28. 2024-07-02
    price $165,000
29. 2024-06-21
    price $170,000
30. 2024-06-18
    status Active
31. 2024-06-09
    historical Active Under Contract
32. 2024-04-25
    listed $185,000 Active
33. 2024-02-14
    historical
34. 2024-02-01
    price $165,000
35. 2024-01-26
    listed $219,000 Active
36. 2022-12-01
    historical
37. 2022-09-19
    price $176,000
38. 2022-07-10
    price $179,000
39. 2022-06-10
    price $185,000
40. 2022-06-01
    listed $199,000 Active
41. 2021-12-14
    historical
42. 2021-03-02
    historical
43. 2020-11-10
    listed $130,000
44. 2015-07-02
    soldstatus $63,000
45. 2015-07-02
    soldstatus $63,000
46. 2015-01-10
    listed $70,500
47. 2000-12-05
    soldstatus $52,000
48. 1999-04-29
    listed $59,900
49. 1989-12-01
    soldstatus $40,900
50. 1988-07-01
    soldstatus $32,700

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,587 · $132/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,587 · $132/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone A · 73% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,228
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,876
• − Property taxes: −$1,587
• − Insurance: −$2,027
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,618
• − Management: −$1,618
• − Depreciation: −$3,052
• Taxable income: $4,450
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,068
• After-tax cash flow: $4,697/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

Livability — Springfield

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #826
• US rank: #20265

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Springfield, FL
• County: Bay County · 163,593 people
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 29,984
• Household income: $73,373
• Rent vs Own: 40.5% rent · 59.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1008.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Black 17% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 7% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 6% Arabic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -217.88%
• Current HPI: 262.7854
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.24%
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+220.8% since first listed

34 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Price Changed $104,900 CPARMLS
• 2026-04-30 Listed $109,900 CPARMLS
• 2025-11-13 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2025-08-20 Contingent — CPARMLS
• 2025-07-24 Relisted — CPARMLS
• 2025-07-21 Pending — CPARMLS
• 2025-07-04 Listed $95,000 CPARMLS
• 2025-03-11 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2025-02-17 Price Changed $98,000 CPARMLS
• 2025-02-11 Listed $155,000 CPARMLS
• 2024-10-31 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2024-07-02 Price Changed $165,000 CPARMLS
• 2024-06-21 Price Changed $170,000 CPARMLS
• 2024-06-18 Relisted — CPARMLS
• 2024-06-09 Contingent — CPARMLS
• 2024-04-25 Listed $185,000 CPARMLS
• 2024-02-14 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2024-02-01 Price Changed $165,000 CPARMLS
• 2024-01-26 Listed $219,000 CPARMLS
• 2022-12-01 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2022-09-19 Price Changed $176,000 CPARMLS
• 2022-07-10 Price Changed $179,000 CPARMLS
• 2022-06-10 Price Changed $185,000 CPARMLS
• 2022-06-01 Listed $199,000 CPARMLS
• 2021-12-14 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2021-03-02 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2020-11-10 Listed $130,000 CPARMLS
• 2015-07-02 Sold (Public Records) $63,000 Public Records
• 2015-07-02 Sold (MLS) $63,000 CPARMLS
• 2015-01-10 Listed $70,500 CPARMLS
• 2000-12-05 Sold (Public Records) $52,000 Public Records
• 1999-04-29 Listed $59,900 CPARMLS
• 1989-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $40,900 Public Records
• 1988-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $32,700 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,587 · +7.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.