20343 N Painted Sky Dr · Surprise, AZ 85374

$410,000

2 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,035 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 247 Days on market

Built 1997 7,949 sqft lot $201/sqft · 16% below area Est $490k · 16% under $160/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.9/15.0
• Cash flow +9.5/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Enjoy resort-style living in this charming 2 bed/2 ba plus den home in the active adult community of Sun City Grand. A formal living/dining area offers great space for entertaining, while the family room features a cozy fireplace. The kitchen impresses with updated counters, tile backsplash and stainless appliances. The spacious primary suite includes a walk-in closet, dual sinks and a large walk-in shower. Relax in the extended length screened-in back patio —ideal for morning coffee or just enjoying the wonderful weather. Residents of Sun City Grand enjoy four golf courses, pickleball and tennis, fitness centers, pools, restaurants and endless social activities for the perfect Arizona lifestyle! New HVAC and heat pump in 2023 and whole home water filtration system as well

Key facts

• Stainless appliances
• Cozy fireplace
• Walk in closet

Tags

• FORMAL LIVING DINING AREA
• COZY FIREPLACE
• UPDATED COUNTERS
• TILE BACKSPLASH
• STAINLESS APPLIANCES
• WALK IN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $410k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-285 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $360k (12.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $304k (25.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $304k (25.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.3% in Surprise — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#19 in AZ, #4,616 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities D-, commute F.
• Dysart Unified District (4243) (suburban): math 34% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #73 of 249 in AZ (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Kingswood Elementary School (math 29% / reading 33%, grade F, #525 of 1,109 statewide, top 48%, 791 students, 59% FRL); Willow Canyon High School (math 36% / reading 44%, grade F, #70 of 381 statewide, top 18%, 1,787 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools at 45% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 406 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 56% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 45% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 247 days — a 12% lower offer ($361k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 24y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $303,826 (25.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 247 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.46%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.98%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $490,212
• List price: $410,000
• Delta: -16.36%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15810 W LA Paloma Dr	0.28mi	2/2.0	2,035 (0%)	1mo	$409,000	$201	82
15829 W Rosewood Way	0.29mi	3/3.0 (+1)	1,980 (-3%)	0mo	$389,900	$197	77
15778 W Cimarron Dr	0.38mi	2/2.0	2,019 (-1%)	0mo	$515,000	$255	76
15905 W LA Paloma Dr	0.34mi	2/2.5	1,934 (-5%)	2mo	$445,000	$230	72
20304 N Windy Walk Ct	0.28mi	2/1.5	1,870 (-8%)	0mo	$335,000	$179	67
20127 N Horse Trail Dr	0.43mi	2/2.0	2,167 (+6%)	1mo	$500,000	$231	64
20595 N Garden Ct	0.42mi	2/2.0	1,870 (-8%)	2mo	$434,000	$232	62
15510 W Big Sky Dr	0.57mi	2/2.5	2,300 (+13%)	1mo	$710,000	$309	49
16045 W Verbena Ln	0.61mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,853 (-9%)	1mo	$390,000	$210	46
16019 W Kino Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0 (+1)	2,282 (+12%)	1mo	$428,000	$188	44
19926 N Crescent Way	0.58mi	3/2.0 (+1)	2,334 (+15%)	2mo	$489,500	$210	38
15526 W Camino Estrella Dr	0.75mi	3/2.0 (+1)	2,334 (+15%)	1mo	$640,000	$274	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.14% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-93,164
• Equity at exit: $61,132

10-year hold

• IRR: -30.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.20×
• Total profit: $-137,661
• Equity at exit: $35,449

Cash invested: $114,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85374

• Home prices YoY: -18.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 406
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,038 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,150
• Tax from tax record: −$205 /mo · $2,457/yr
• Insurance: −$171
• HOA: −$160
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$638
• Net cashflow: $-285

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,400

Max offer price $359,571

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-53	-5% $-169	+0% $-285	+5% $-402	+10% $-518
Rent	-10% $-525	-5% $-405	+0% $-285	+5% $-165	+10% $-45
Rate	-1.0pp $-79	-0.5pp $-181	base $-285	+0.5pp $-392	+1.0pp $-500

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $102,500
• Closing costs: $12,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15628 W Hidden Creek Ln Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1627	$3,600	$2.21	45d	1	0.27mi
20054 N Painted Sky Dr Surprise, AZ	2.0	1.5	1598	$3,200	$2.00	26d	1	0.32mi
15913 W Clearwater Way Surprise, AZ	2.0	1.5	1546	$3,000	$1.94	45d	1	0.54mi
16248 W Tuscany Way Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1909	$2,500	$1.31	45d	1	0.79mi
20046 N Hearthstone Dr Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1934	$3,800	$1.96	45d	1	0.93mi
15438 W Domingo Ln Sun City West, AZ	2.0	2.0	1438	$1,950	$1.36	0d	1	1.03mi
21640 N Casa Royale Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.5	1894	$2,195	$1.16	18d	1	1.07mi
15104 W Cactus Ridge Way Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1512	$3,850	$2.55	45d	1	1.07mi
15082 W Cactus Ridge Way Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1645	$3,500	$2.13	45d	1	1.10mi
21718 N Black Bear Lodge Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	3.0	2810	$5,500	$1.96	26d	1	1.11mi
21531 N Black Bear Lodge Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1852	$1,595	$0.86	19d	1	1.15mi
15042 W Cactus Ridge Way Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1414	$2,800	$1.98	45d	1	1.16mi
15732 W Spring Tree Way Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1934	$3,500	$1.81	45d	1	1.28mi
15185 W Via Manana Sun City West, AZ	3.0	2.0	2900	$2,195	$0.76	45d	1	1.29mi
20813 N 147th Dr Sun City West, AZ	2.0	1.5	1733	$4,500	$2.60	16d	1	1.29mi
16426 W Boulder Vista Dr Unit 1546454P Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1625	$4,436	$2.73	16d	1	1.38mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $160 · $1,920/yr
• Likely covers: waterpoolgym

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $410,000 Active 247 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $410,000 Active 244 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $410,000 Active 243 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $410,000 Active 242 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $410,000 Active 241 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $410,000 Active 239 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $410,000 Active 235 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $410,000 Active 234 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $410,000 Active 233 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $410,000 Active 230 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $410,000 Active 229 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $410,000 Active 228 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $410,000 Active 227 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $410,000 Active 226 DOM
15. 2026-03-06
    price $410,000 790-char remark

    Show marketing remark (790 chars)

    Enjoy resort-style living in this charming 2 bed/2 ba plus den home in the active adult community of Sun City Grand. A formal living/dining area offers great space for entertaining, while the family room features a cozy fireplace. The kitchen impresses with updated counters, tile backsplash and stainless appliances. The spacious primary suite includes a walk-in closet, dual sinks and a large walk-in shower. Relax in the extended length screened-in back patio —ideal for morning coffee or just enjoying the wonderful weather. Residents of Sun City Grand enjoy four golf courses, pickleball and tennis, fitness centers, pools, restaurants and endless social activities for the perfect Arizona lifestyle! New HVAC and heat pump in 2023 and whole home water filtration system as well

16. 2025-11-26
    price $425,000 790-char remark

    Show marketing remark (790 chars)

    Enjoy resort-style living in this charming 2 bed/2 ba plus den home in the active adult community of Sun City Grand. A formal living/dining area offers great space for entertaining, while the family room features a cozy fireplace. The kitchen impresses with updated counters, tile backsplash and stainless appliances. The spacious primary suite includes a walk-in closet, dual sinks and a large walk-in shower. Relax in the extended length screened-in back patio —ideal for morning coffee or just enjoying the wonderful weather. Residents of Sun City Grand enjoy four golf courses, pickleball and tennis, fitness centers, pools, restaurants and endless social activities for the perfect Arizona lifestyle! New HVAC and heat pump in 2023 and whole home water filtration system as well

17. 2025-10-17
    listed $435,000 Active 790-char remark

    Show marketing remark (790 chars)

    Enjoy resort-style living in this charming 2 bed/2 ba plus den home in the active adult community of Sun City Grand. A formal living/dining area offers great space for entertaining, while the family room features a cozy fireplace. The kitchen impresses with updated counters, tile backsplash and stainless appliances. The spacious primary suite includes a walk-in closet, dual sinks and a large walk-in shower. Relax in the extended length screened-in back patio —ideal for morning coffee or just enjoying the wonderful weather. Residents of Sun City Grand enjoy four golf courses, pickleball and tennis, fitness centers, pools, restaurants and endless social activities for the perfect Arizona lifestyle! New HVAC and heat pump in 2023 and whole home water filtration system as well

18. 2021-03-11
    soldstatus $375,000 Closed 632-char remark

    Show marketing remark (632 chars)

    Lovely Verbena Model with plantation shutters and raised panel doors throughout, fireplace in family room, den/office space with plantation shutters for privacy. Kitchen has lovely cabinets with center island, skylight and 2 pantries. Craft room or additional office space. Living and dining area with French doors to extended covered patio. 16-inch tile in high-traffic areas. Spacious master bedroom with bay window. Master bath with dual sinks. Large guest bedroom. Extended 2-car garage. Noth/south exposure. All this plus the amenities of Sun City Grand community with golf courses and recreation centers. See it today.

19. 2021-03-11
    soldstatus $375,000

    Show marketing remark (632 chars)

    Lovely Verbena Model with plantation shutters and raised panel doors throughout, fireplace in family room, den/office space with plantation shutters for privacy. Kitchen has lovely cabinets with center island, skylight and 2 pantries. Craft room or additional office space. Living and dining area with French doors to extended covered patio. 16-inch tile in high-traffic areas. Spacious master bedroom with bay window. Master bath with dual sinks. Large guest bedroom. Extended 2-car garage. Noth/south exposure. All this plus the amenities of Sun City Grand community with golf courses and recreation centers. See it today.

20. 2021-02-10
    status Pending 632-char remark

    Show marketing remark (632 chars)

    Lovely Verbena Model with plantation shutters and raised panel doors throughout, fireplace in family room, den/office space with plantation shutters for privacy. Kitchen has lovely cabinets with center island, skylight and 2 pantries. Craft room or additional office space. Living and dining area with French doors to extended covered patio. 16-inch tile in high-traffic areas. Spacious master bedroom with bay window. Master bath with dual sinks. Large guest bedroom. Extended 2-car garage. Noth/south exposure. All this plus the amenities of Sun City Grand community with golf courses and recreation centers. See it today.

21. 2021-01-31
    listed $370,000 Active 632-char remark

    Show marketing remark (632 chars)

    Lovely Verbena Model with plantation shutters and raised panel doors throughout, fireplace in family room, den/office space with plantation shutters for privacy. Kitchen has lovely cabinets with center island, skylight and 2 pantries. Craft room or additional office space. Living and dining area with French doors to extended covered patio. 16-inch tile in high-traffic areas. Spacious master bedroom with bay window. Master bath with dual sinks. Large guest bedroom. Extended 2-car garage. Noth/south exposure. All this plus the amenities of Sun City Grand community with golf courses and recreation centers. See it today.

22. 2002-11-06
    soldstatus $185,000
23. 2002-11-06
    soldstatus $185,000
24. 2002-10-15
    historical
25. 2002-10-03
    listed $188,900
26. 1998-11-03
    soldstatus $174,000
27. 1997-12-24
    soldstatus $159,543

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,457 · $205/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,706 · $226/mo
• Expected delta: +$249/yr (+$21/mo · 10.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥113°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,459
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,966
• − Property taxes: −$2,457
• − Insurance: −$2,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,917
• − Management: −$2,917
• − HOA: −$1,920
• − Depreciation: −$11,927
• Taxable loss: −$10,695
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,567
• After-tax cash flow: $-859/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dysart Unified District (4243)
• NCES district ID: 0402690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,033
• Composite: 32.76/100
• National rank: #5634
• State rank: #73 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Surprise

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #19
• US rank: #4616

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Surprise, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 160,031
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 41,420
• Household income: $81,201
• Rent vs Own: 23.1% rent · 76.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1120.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 8% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.93%
• Current HPI: 254.7782
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.14%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+157.0% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $410,000 ARMLS
• 2025-11-26 Price Changed $425,000 ARMLS
• 2025-10-17 Listed $435,000 ARMLS
• 2021-03-11 Sold (Public Records) $375,000 Public Records
• 2021-03-11 Sold (MLS) $375,000 ARMLS
• 2021-02-10 Pending — ARMLS
• 2021-01-31 Listed $370,000 ARMLS
• 2002-11-06 Sold (Public Records) $185,000 Public Records
• 2002-11-06 Sold (MLS) $185,000 ARMLS
• 2002-10-15 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2002-10-03 Listed $188,900 ARMLS
• 1998-11-03 Sold (Public Records) $174,000 Public Records
• 1997-12-24 Sold (Public Records) $159,543 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,457 · -0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.