2307 Oakdale Rd #13 · Modesto, CA 95355

$185,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Manufactured · 80 Days on market

Built 2024

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Glenwood Mobile Home Park, where this immaculate, like-new Clayton Homes double-widemanufactured and built in 2024offers modern design, space, and comfort in a welcoming 55+ community. Meticulously maintained, this home truly feels brand new and delivers a level of quality that often surprises buyers who don't expect manufactured living to feel this much like a traditional home. The thoughtfully designed great room floor plan creates an open, inviting living space ideal for everyday living and entertaining. The home features two bedrooms plus a versatile flex room that can easily function as a third bedroom, home office, hobby room, or guest space, offering flexibility to fit a v

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Flex room
• Open kitchen

Tags

• CLAYTON HOMES DOUBLE-WIDE
• GREAT ROOM FLOOR PLAN
• FLEX ROOM
• OPEN KITCHEN
• CENTER ISLAND
• WALK-IN CLOSET

🏗️ New construction. The $185,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $122,304.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $701 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $185k).
• Recommended offer: $174k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.2% vs local median 3.2% in Modesto — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#451 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, schools D+, health & safety D+.
• Sylvan Union Elementary (urban): math 44% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #457 of 1,400 in CA (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 222 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 923 units permitted in Stanislaus County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $846 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Stanislaus County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.3% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($174k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $173,900 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.60% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.55%
• DSCR: 2.09
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $122,304
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2307 Oakdale Rd #13	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,248 (0%)	1mo	$175,000	$140	99
2307 Oakdale Rd #100	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,248 (0%)	10mo	$122,000	$98	88
2307 Oakdale Rd	0.00mi	2/2.5	1,236 (-1%)	16mo	$70,000	$57	83
2307 Oakdale Rd #99	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,200 (-4%)	15mo	$80,000	$67	77
2307 Oakdale #6	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,248 (0%)	23mo	$129,000	$103	76
2307 Oakdale Rd #32	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,320 (+6%)	12mo	$55,000	$42	76

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.28% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.63×
• Total profit: $21,498
• Equity at exit: $18,236

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.84×
• Total profit: $63,094
• Equity at exit: $10,575

Cash invested: $34,245 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95355

• Rents YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 222
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,957 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$641
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$153 /mo · $1,835/yr
• Insurance: −$51
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$411
• Net cashflow: $701

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,070

Max offer price $122,304

Occupancy floor 59%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,576
• Closing costs: $3,669
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1915 Celeste Ct Unit CE1915-B Modesto, CA	2.0	1.0	756	$1,525	$2.02	13d	1	0.32mi
1900 Oakdale Rd Modesto, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	728	$1,969	$2.70	13d	1	0.38mi
1704 Rose Ave Modesto, CA	2.0	1.0	850	$1,550	$1.82	13d	1	0.60mi
2912 Niabell Pl Modesto, CA	3.0	2.0	1470	$2,700	$1.84	13d	1	0.74mi
2405 Vera Cruz Dr Apt C Modesto, CA	2.0	1.0	918	$1,675	$1.82	13d	1	0.77mi
1313 Floyd Ave Modesto, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	800	$1,725	$2.16	13d	2	0.79mi
1802 Rockford Ave Modesto, CA	2.0	1.0	892	$1,850	$2.07	23d	1	0.79mi
1800 Rockford Ave Unit 1 Modesto, CA	2.0	1.0	892	$1,850	$2.07	13d	1	0.80mi
1308 Ensenada Dr Unit 5 Modesto, CA	2.0	1.0	1050	$1,450	$1.38	13d	1	0.81mi
1339 E Rumble Rd Modesto, CA	2.0	1.0	1150	$1,800	$1.57	13d	1	0.83mi
2100 Coffee Rd Modesto, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	889	$1,740	$1.96	13d	10	0.84mi
2005 Coffee Rd Unit 2005 Coffee Road, Modesto, Calif Modesto, CA	2.0	1.0	880	$1,750	$1.99	13d	1	0.89mi
2616 Casita Dr Modesto, CA	3.0	2.0	1392	$2,500	$1.80	13d	1	1.03mi
3400 Coffee Rd Modesto, CA	2.0	2.0	951	$1,945	$2.05	21d	1	1.14mi
3400 Coffee Rd Modesto, CA	1.0	1.0	707	$1,645	$2.33	13d	1	1.14mi
2025 Sweetwater Dr Modesto, CA	3.0	2.0	1398	$2,650	$1.90	21d	1	1.17mi
3055 Floyd Ave Modesto, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	930	$2,426	$2.61	13d	13	1.23mi
1401 Lakewood Ave Modesto, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	844	$1,962	$2.33	13d	4	1.32mi
1305 Sylvan Meadows Dr Unit C Modesto, CA	2.0	1.5	1037	$2,150	$2.07	13d	1	1.36mi
1500 Lakewood Ave Modesto, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	820	$1,900	$2.32	13d	7	1.39mi
1000 Brighton Ave Modesto, CA	3.0	1.5	1250	$1,998	$1.60	13d	1	1.43mi

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 67% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 28 unhealthy d/yr today · 32 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,480
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,851
• − Property taxes: −$1,835
• − Insurance: −$612
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,878
• − Management: −$1,878
• − Depreciation: −$3,558
• Taxable income: $6,868
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,648
• After-tax cash flow: $6,758/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sylvan Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0638670
• Math proficiency: 44% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $61,181
• Composite: 44.28/100
• National rank: #6167
• State rank: #457 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Modesto

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #451
• US rank: #15229

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute D Cost of living F Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Modesto, CA
• County: Stanislaus County · 445,786 people
• City population: 225,261
• Metro: Modesto, CA
• Population (ZIP): 60,710
• Household income: $86,849
• Rent vs Own: 37.7% rent · 62.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 2521.0

Population outlook (Stanislaus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 579,493 people
• By 2030: 598,000 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 630,930 · +8.9%
• By 2050: 658,300 · +13.6%
• By 2075: 712,363 · +22.9%
• By 2100: 719,805 · +24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 18% Asian 8% Black 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Russian 3% Italian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Stanislaus

• 2024 margin: R (+11.0) · D 43.2% · R 54.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 1.7pp · 2024: -11.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.0 2020: D+0.8 2016: D+0.6 2012: D+0.7 2008: D+1.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -458.02%
• Current HPI: 277.8565
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.28%
• Metro: Modesto, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B